Micaiah said:
To address your other points in detail:
If we assume this is correct, it simply adds weight to the argument that existing populations light and dark coloured moths changed over time.
Which is all that was claimed.
Wrong. That was an assumption made by H.B. Kettlewell's, but as the following shows, he did not have the scientific evidence to support the notion that birds eating moths off tree trunks were responsible for the colour variations witnessed.
But no claim was made about birds eating moths off tree trunks. The claim was simply that birds eat moths. Whether they are on trunks, on branches, in branch nodes, on or under leaves or anywhere else is irrelevant.
Hence the rest of your argument, which centres on tree trunks, is also irrelevant.
H.B. Kettlewell's rationale was along the lines:
- During the IR, the colour of tree trunks got darker.
- Lighter colour moths would stand out during the day against the dark trunks, and would get eaten by birds.
You mistake Kettlewell's rationale. He was well aware that soot did not confine itself to tree trunks but blackened the whole tree. Wherever moths rested on trees the darker ones would be better camouflaged. Wherever birds might find them on trees (and birds do not confine their search to tree trunks either) the lighter moths would be easier to find.
The argument falls flat if the moths don't rest on the trunks during the day in the first place.
But that moths rest on tree trunks was never part of the argument in the first place. It would certainly have made things easier for Kettlewell and his team if they did. They did not expect to find so few resting on tree trunks. But the place the moths normally rested (branch nodes IIRC) has nothing to do with the results of the study.
8. Selective bird predation on non-camouflaged moths tends to make the non-camouflaged form rarer in each generation.
Irrelevant given the moths normal habitat during the day.
The habitat of the moths is irrelevant to what was being researched. What was being studied was the effect of camouflage on predation, not the habitat of the moths.
So, in summary, according to the above references, the explanation provided by H.B. Kettlewell on why the numbers of the dark and light moths varied does not fit the facts.
From answers in genesis:
Three statements sum up the biological reality about this issue.
Before the industrial revolution, there was genetic information for dark and light moths.
During the worst days of pollution, there was genetic information for dark and light moths.
Today, there is genetic information for dark and light moths.
In other words, the only thing thats happened is that the relative numbers of each have gone up and down.
The consensus appears to be, however, that the proportion of dark to light moths did indeed rise and fall in concert with the rise of (and subsequent decline in) industrial pollution. The main argument concerns whether this was due to differential predation by birds.
Emphasis added.
The only relevant point they are not confirming is the role of bird predation and they are not denying the possibility of that. Everything else in the article is hot air.
Your next reference does confirm bird predation
Kettlewell (1955) thus established that birds do, in fact, prey on resting peppered moths.
snip 2 paragraphs with many figures in them
Other biologists conducted experiments with peppered moths on tree trunks to test Kettlewells theory that industrial melanism was due to cryptic coloration and selective predation (e.g., Clarke and Sheppard 1966, Bishop 1972, Lees and Creed 1975, Bishop and Cook 1975, Steward 1977b, Murray et al. 1980). Their conclusions generally agreed with Kettlewells.
A scientist named Majerus has done a thorough analysis of the research of both Kettlewell and his successors as well as doing field research himself. Your second source quotes Majerus extensively, as does Jonathan Wells, another critic of the pepper moth story.
So you might be interested in reading
this critique of Wells' Icons of Evolution which has commentary by Majerus and also by an American researcher Bruce Grant.
In regard to the question of moth habitat, Grant notes that:
Kettlewell's complementary experiments in polluted and unpolluted woods compared the relative success of different colored moths on the same parts of trees in different areas, not different parts of trees in the same area.
And Majerus is quite explicit and forceful with his conclusions:
Bernard [Kettlewell] was a first rate entomologist and scientist. His experiments were meticulous and generally well designed. In my opinion, many of his experiments were among the best that have been conducted on melanism and bird predation. [...]
The suggestion that Kettlewell ever 'faked' a result is offensive to his memory. He was an honourable, good scientist who reported his findings with honesty and integrity. [...]
The case of melanism in the peppered moth IS ONE OF THE BEST EXAMPLES OF EVOLUTION IN ACTION BY DARWIN'S PROCESS OF NATURAL SELECTION that we have. In general it is based on good science and it is sound.
(Majerus email to Don Frack, posted March 30, 1999. Capitalization original. Available at:
http://www.calvin.edu/archive/evolution/199903/0312.html)
And in another letter:
Of all the people I know, including both amateur and professional entomologists who have experience of this moth, I know of none who doubts that differential bird predation is of primary importance in the spread and decline of melanism in the peppered moth.
(Majerus email, posted to Calvin listserv by Don Frack, April 5, 1999. Available at:
http://www.asa3.org/archive/evolution/199904/0103.html)
This is from the person who probably has more expertise on the pepper moth today than anyone else alive.
The other point as stated above is that independent of the reason given for the shifting changes in frequencies of dark and light moths, this is simply not evidence for 'goo to you' evolution.
It is evidence for a mechanism of evolution: namely, natural selection. Since natural selection is the primary driver of evolution, I don't see any problem with calling evidence for natural selection evidence for evolution. But if you want to be precise, it is evidence for natural selection.
There is not even evidence here for speciation as suggested by Notto. That is acknowledged clearly by other scientists.
Everyone, even Notto, agrees that in this case there was no speciation. I think Notto's point is that what we see in the pepper moth case is the process which does lead to speciation in other cases. But it did not happen with the pepper moth case, and none of my 8 points suggests that it did, or that it is evidence of speciation.
Now you have agreed that 6 of the 8 points have not been discredited. In regard to points 6 & 8 your objection is based on the question of habitat, which is irrelevant to the issue of bird predation. No one has ever claimed that bird predation is limited to tree trunks.
It is also untrue that moths never rest on tree trunks. When you read the link I gave you, you will find two analyses of moth resting places. One shows 25% of moths resting on trunks; the other 34% of moths resting on trunks. So the question of habitat is truly irrelevant. Are you ready to face up to the fact that none of these claims has been discredited?