Why sanctions will not work, and why it should drive renewable energy.

[ThatRobGuy]

Sanctions could work if they were implemented correctly (as a non-military option), but the way these particular ones are structured are largely "without teeth" so to speak.

They're seriously lacking on a few key aspects.

1) They exempted Russia's energy industry for the most part
2) They provided cut-outs for several EU countries to still engage in various forms of trade with them (for instance, Italy and Belgium have been pushing for certain types of lucrative trade with Russia to still be allowed)
3) They're targeting things that Russia wasn't terribly reliant on anyway (like the comments about how they were going to cut them off from "cutting-edge technology")...I'm sure Putin will be super bummed out that his citizens (most of which can't afford it anyway) won't be able to get the latest and greatest tech gadgets
4) They failed to get China on board. I know China isn't exactly "our friend" or "our ally", but this is one of those situations where cooperating with them would be a "necessary evil" in order to make it work. We can cut Russia off from all the western markets we want, as long as China is still willing to engage in trade with them, it's not much of a sanction...China could simply buy whatever commodity it is from whatever country they want, and then sell it to Russia for a slight mark-up. (Heck, China probably already makes a knock-off version of whatever it is they're looking to buy anyway)


So what does that leave us with? A set of sanctions that doesn't target the industry responsible for 1/3 of their GDP (and arguably the most important part of their economy), and a few other measures that are a minor inconvenience at most in other areas.


Now, to the point of the OP, yes, it should make us consider various other energy sources, but those don't get stood up overnight...oil's not going away for a long time.

If squashing this Russia situation is the short-term goal at hand, then the appropriate measure would be to relieve some of the burdens on our domestic energy production, tell the "green" folks they'll need to take a backseat for a while, and allow us to tap into some of our own oil producing capabilities for the short term. We're not going to be able to convert the world to wind/solar/tidal power before Russia runs over Ukraine.

 

[Sparagmos]

By the way, re-powering the entire US with windmills is a pipe dream worse than that of The Man of La Mancha.

Fortunately no one is proposing that.

 

[Ana the Ist]

You are grasping at straws. What percentage of fossil fuels burnt are done so by air travel?

Oh geez hmmm...


Last I checked, commercial air travel and commercial shipping combined to be in the top 10 highest polluting "nations".

I won't even go into the military.

We probably never will have commercial electric airplanes. Batteries do not have a high enough energy to mass density. And cargo ships are actually quite efficient.

Sure..

It may seem that the suck down a lot of fuel, but fuel per mile per ton is rather low. Are you looking for excuses to give up? Do you really want to fry the world?

I don't see what can possibly be done to stop it now.

 

[Subduction Zone]

Oh geez hmmm...


Last I checked, commercial air travel and commercial shipping combined to be in the top 10 highest polluting "nations".

I won't even go into the military.



Sure..



I don't see what can possibly be done to stop it now.

So you can't support any of your claims. That is too bad. And if one cared about one's children one would try to improve the world, not make it worse.

 

[Ana the Ist]

So you can't support any of your claims.

You didn't ask me to.

That is too bad. And if one cared about one's children one would try to improve the world, not make it worse.

I don't have any children and I'm not very fond of the new crop.

Regardless of that though...it doesn't change the fact that there absolutely no plan whatsoever for many of the biggest climate change problems.

 

[Subduction Zone]

You didn't ask me to.

What?!? Do I really have to?

I don't have any children and I'm not very fond of the new crop.

Regardless of that though...it doesn't change the fact that there absolutely no plan whatsoever for many of the biggest climate change problems.

Another claim that I doubt if you can support. Instead of making positive claims which does require an ability to support them, whether others ask you to or not, it is always wiser to ask questions.

 

[Ana the Ist]

What?!? Do I really have to?

Pretend you're on a discussion forum. You don't have to ask for evidence...but if you want it, you should.

Another claim that I doubt if you can support. Instead of making positive claims which does require an ability to support them, whether others ask you to or not, it is always wiser to ask questions.

Are you aware of what a climate change feedback loop is?

 

[Subduction Zone]

Pretend you're on a discussion forum. You don't have to ask for evidence...but if you want it, you should.

I did. It appears that you dodged.

Are you aware of what a climate change feedback loop is?

Yes.

 

[wing2000]

Western powers have realised Russia is largely immune to sanctions

Russia has prepared a large enough war chest to weather the current sanctions, whilst knowing that the dependence of Europe on russian gas and oil means that Iranian style sanctions cannot be implemented without cutting of one's own nose.

The to invest in windfarms....

I heard an European-based energy analyst on BBC radio (don't recall the name else I would cite him) commenting that Germany finds itself in a very tough predictament after Putin's actions in Ukraine. For decades, Germany has counted on Russian natural gas to meet its energy needs - even more so with the standing down of nuclear power and coal plants. Non-carbon energy sources won't be ready to replace natural gas for at least a couple more decades...and in the interim, Germany assumed Russian natural gas would be available (from an environmental perspective, relying on natural gas is better than burning oil or coal). I was surprised to hear that Germany never made contingency plans in the event Russian natural gas was not available and as a result, the country has no alternatives. The analyst also suspects this is primary reason for Germany opposing cutting off Russia from SWIFT -- Germany pays for it's natural gas by that system and can't risk any interruptions to its gas supply.

 

[wing2000]

I whole hearted agree and was thinking of having a thread pointing it out. Russia is hardened against sanctions and would likely sell any gas and oil not bought from Europe to China.

Putin learned from the experience of the USSR...which ran out of cash. Russia is sitting on a lot of cash today and has very low debt which in the short term, will mitigate the current sanctions.

In pointing this out, I don't want US interventionism over there. We could have avoided this by giving Putin his buffer zone and agreeing that Ukraine is or should be a neutral country. (Another area where Trump almost certainly would have done better).

It's not up to any country to dictate to Ukraine what it should do, much less offer it up on a plate to Putin.

But I think it is worth pointing out simply that this will be just another reason of many other reasons why Biden is bad president and leader in general. In this case he is weak, and some of Putin's boldness comes on the heels of the Afghanistan debacle.

With no Afghanistan involvement, NATO is stronger and more focused on their primary mission, defending NATO countries. Thanks to the Biden administration, NATO and EU are unified. Putin's attempt to fracture the alliance has failed and today, Putin finds himself with even more NATO forces on his western border (Poland and the Baltics).

That is position of strength, not weakness.

 

[Goonie]

Putin learned from the experience of the USSR...which ran out of cash. Russia is sitting on a lot of cash today and has very low debt which in the short term, will mitigate the current sanctions.



It's not up to any country to dictate to Ukraine.



With no Afghanistan involvement, NATO is stronger and more focused on their primary mission, defending NATO countries. Thanks to the Biden administration, NATO and EU are unified. Putin's attempt to fracture the alliance has failed and today, Putin finds himself with even more NATO forces on his western border (Poland and the Baltics).

That is position of strength, not weakness.

And the funny thing is that in launching this attack on the Ukraine, Putin has made Russia nothing more than a client state of China.

 

[wing2000]

If squashing this Russia situation is the short-term goal at hand, then the appropriate measure would be to relieve some of the burdens on our domestic energy production, tell the "green" folks they'll need to take a backseat for a while, and allow us to tap into some of our own oil producing capabilities for the short term. We're not going to be able to convert the world to wind/solar/tidal power before Russia runs over Ukraine.

With the higher price of oil (over $100 barrel), that will happen naturally as oil wells with higher extraction cost will come on line (because it's profitable to do so).

And I agree, non-carbon energy sources are not a solution for the immediate crisis. However, the current crisis should serve as an incentive to invest in non-carbon energy sources for the long term.

 

[Ana the Ist]

I did. It appears that you dodged.

I hate constantly proving I know more about this topic.

Climate change and flying: what share of global CO2 emissions come from aviation?

Commercial flight accounts for 2.5-3% of the global carbon emissions.

International shipping does about 3%...if you don't believe me?....just ask for a link.

Let's round that down to 5% just for fun....

How does that compare? Take a look for yourself. Germany is only about 2% of the global footprint.

And like I said....there's no plan. None. There's no plan not just because nobody can figure out a way to do what shipping and flight do cleanly....but because these aren't nations. They aren't bound by the Paris agreement, or any agreement.

Yes.

Ok...let's look at a simple one. Wildfires.

So do you know of any solutions to stop trees and vegetation from burning down faster than it grows?

 

[ThatRobGuy]