Jude's reference is very much like those given throughout Hebrews. God saved people out of the land of Egypt, but afterward destroyed those who did not believe. I think this is the only way we can understand the "already but not yet" tension of our own salvation in this life. All who followed Moses out of Egypt were saved...yet some still fell away later. All who floated on the Ark with Noah were saved...yet one of his sons went on to be cursed and become the father of the enemies of Israel. We do not know what will happen tomorrow. We can look around at our fellow Ark passengers, and all we can say today is that we are all on the Ark together--we are all saved. We can look at those following the pillar of cloud with us today and see that we're all journeying toward the Promised Land together--we are all saved. We are all looking today at the Son of Man, lifted up like the serpent in the wilderness--we are all saved.
Tomorrow, the passenger next to you could jump overboard.
Tomorrow, the guy looking at the cloud could yell "To heck with this, I'm thirsty!" and wander away and be lost.
Tomorrow, your sister could waver and look away from the serpent on the pole, and be bitten by the firey serpents below, and fall in the desert.
Tomorrow, you could do any of these things. And so could I.
Thus, the warnings. We can say, when it's all finished and can see who arrived in the Promised Land "Oh, so it was God's mysterious plan to preserve Sally through the whole journey but to let Jimmy fall away." But we aren't there yet. We must look to ourselves, lest we fall.
Consider Hebrews 3:
He's drawn an exact parallel to the wandering in the wilderness, between Moses, and Jesus (the greater-than-Moses). To whom is this addressed? To the "holy brothers" of whom Jesus is the high priest of "our confession." What warning is given to these confessing, holy brothers? The warning not to fall away like those in the wilderness who turned against Moses. They started out OK, but fell away due to sin and the hardness of their hearts.
Take care...who? "Brothers." Where might evil, unbelieving hearts yet be found? In his audience of "holy brothers" who confess Christ and follow Him. The assurance is given, that they have already come to share in Christ, if they persevere to the end. Already, but not yet. If they fall away, they will become like those mentioned by Jude.
And lastly consider Hebrews 6:
Who are those who have been enlightened? It's a reference to baptism. I cannot be dissuaded from that interpretation. "Enlightenment" was synonymous with "baptism" from the earliest Christian writings. Hence, again, my point in earlier posts: both the assurances and the warnings are written to confessing, baptized Christians in the Church.
It may be fun to sip coffee and argue about the mysterious purposes of God in election and all that. But at the end of the day, all we can do is tremble before these words and be watchful and vigilant over our own hearts and minds, lest our lamps go out.