US taxpayers will pay for the wall

[ThomasMoreorLess]

Mexico's peso is taking a hit now. Don't know how they're going to pay for the wall.

 

[Crusader05]

The wall will be worth every penny! We will save on not having a flood of illegals here on the dole.

 

[HannahT]

Seed money usually doesn't mean pay for everything up front and hope that your hope to have someone else pay for it down the line so you recover your seed money will work. That is not a business concept. That's a planned bankruptcy plan.

I'm open, however, to being told exactly how Mexico is going to pay it back. Then it would actually be a plan.

Seed money to get the wall started, and your future income stream comes from whatever his plan is.

Could they have to put more out at the beginning? Very possible. Not to many government projects meet budget or plans. We can hope that is not the case here, but who knows.

That doesn't take away the fact he spoke about regarding the income stream from Mexico to basically have them pay for it. If he chooses a tax on entry for example (who knows what it will be - or if it will be)? They will always be those wanting to enter, and that steady stream will not end. That's hardly bankruptcy. It may end up being a slow paying project depending on how he decides to handle it though.

As I said - who knows if it will happen or not. It's a rather big undertaking.

 

[HannahT]

How are you sure of that? What has he said or done that would make you think that was what he meant?

If you look at how he build's real estate. I used that principal. You get a partial loan to get the project started, and you charge rent for your income stream to pay back the loan..and profit for yourself. Yes, I simplified that a bit.

I mean if people seriously thought he was going to go to Bank of Mexico, and request the entire amount upfront? That's rather naive.

My hypothesis is as good as anyone else's.

 

[JGG]

Mexico is already paying for the wall with the hundreds of jobs lost to Ford and Carrier.

Those 1200 jobs will generate about $120 million per year in federal tax revenue alone!

That's nearly .5% of the wall paid for right there!

 

[HannahT]

My question has always been, Why would Mexico have to pay for the wall? What do they get out of buying us a multi-billion dollar wall?

I would assume for the same reasons they have partial walls around the border. You want to stop the flow of people, drugs, and crime from same sources that are terrorizing the country itself.

They may not pay for it directly, but there was ways of getting them to pay for it indirectly. lol its not like this hasn't been discussed to death!

The wall - if it becomes a reality - is just one small part of the failed immigration system in this country.

 

[JGG]

They may not pay for it directly, but there was ways of getting them to pay for it indirectly.

Some examples?

 

[HannahT]

Some examples?

Seriously? Has this not been discussed to death already?

People have been speculating on that forever now.

 

[JGG]

Seriously? Has this not been discussed to death already?

People have been speculating on that forever now.

Seriously. I've only come back here about a month ago. Entertain me. What's the best way to get this money from Mexico that doesn't endanger our own trade (Mexico is our third largest trading partner, and supports millions of jobs here), or makes the U.S. akin to a mobster shaking down someone simply because they money?

 

[HannahT]

Seriously. I've only come back here about a month ago. Entertain me. What's the best way to get this money from Mexico that doesn't endanger our own trade (Mexico is our third largest trading partner, and supports millions of jobs here), or makes the U.S. akin to a mobster shaking down someone simply because they money?

I would widen my sources if you think this board is the only place that has speculated on the numerous theories of how it could be done.

Since, nothing concrete has been brought forth it would be hard to speculate on the effect on anyway at this point. We can't decide if we endanger our own trade, or act like mobsters until we have details. I realize that doesn't stop people from saying it anyway, but it seems fruitless to me.

 

[JGG]

I would widen my sources if you think this board is the only place that has speculated on the numerous theories of how it could be done.

I'm sure there are. Luckily, you're here to inform me about the many options in front of us.

Since, nothing concrete has been brought forth it would be hard to speculate on the effect on anyway at this point. We can't decide if we endanger our own trade, or act like mobsters until we have details. I realize that doesn't stop people from saying it anyway, but it seems fruitless to me.

By the same token, we don't know that any of these speculations will actually bring in the money we expect them to. But there are certainly some obvious areas where the outcome is predictable:

If we were to simply threaten Mexico with military actions (something Trump says he won't take off the table) if they do not pay, that does indeed look like mob strong-arming. If we impose trade sanctions, or increase import duty on Mexican products, we can expect they will do the same to us, which will cost us a great deal.

 

[wing2000]

It's hilarious that some here actually still believe the wall expenses won't come out of the U.S. taxpayer's pocket. I guess they thought Donald was serious when he proclaimed over and over Believe me!

 

[wing2000]

...and any day now, Iraq will pass on their oil proceeds to pay for the Iraq invasion.

 

[Gene2memE]

The wall will be worth every penny! We will save on not having a flood of illegals here on the dole.

Are you sure?

The issue is complex, and estimates vary, but findings by various public and private groups are that illegal immigration has been a negative 0.1% impact on GDP and a positive 0.6% impact on GDP, depending on a couple of variables.

Generally speaking, the view of economists is that illegal immigration represents a net win for the US economy and US consumers in general, but this win happens at the expense of the low-skill, low-wage segments of the workforce.

If you stop illegal immigration tomorrow and start ejecting illegal immigrants ASAP, you can be fairly certain that prices for the following are going to go up:

Fruit and vegetables;
Dry cleaning;
Gardening and yard work;
Housekeeping services;
Childcare and minding;
Construction;
Clothing;

Illegal immigrants also have a higher workforce participation rate than any other labour segment of the US economy. Even if you only deport 50% of them engaged in the workforce (say about 4-4.2 million individuals), you're going to reduce the entire size of the US workforce by about 2.5%.

Sounds nice. Until you realise that the US workforce is projected to grow just 0.2% in the next two years, which is not enough to keep up with the increases in mandatory social security and medicare/medicaid needed. So, if the Trump administration does close the Southern border, its going to start to need issuing a lot more working visas, greencards and other temporary measures if it wants to keep the economy healthy - government remittances are going to go down, the prices of basic goods are going to go up and overall most households are going to be worse off (not better).

 

[Fere222]

I am not sure how accurate this is, but if it is even close to accurate....wow! I was shocked. (Link below)

*****************
The Fiscal Burden of Illegal Immigration on United States Taxpayers (2013)

Executive Summary
This report estimates the annual costs of illegal immigration at the federal, state and local level to be about $113 billion; nearly $29 billion at the federal level and $84 billion at the state and local level. The study also estimates tax collections from illegal alien workers, both those in the above-ground economy and those in the underground economy. Those receipts do not come close to the level of expenditures and, in any case, are misleading as an offset because over time unemployed and underemployed U.S. workers would replace illegal alien workers.

Key Findings

• Illegal immigration costs U.S. taxpayers about $113 billion a year at the federal, state and local level. The bulk of the costs — some $84 billion — are absorbed by state and local governments.
• The annual outlay that illegal aliens cost U.S. taxpayers is an average amount per native-headed household of $1,117. The fiscal impact per household varies considerably because the greatest share of the burden falls on state and local taxpayers whose burden depends on the size of the illegal alien population in that locality
• Education for the children of illegal aliens constitutes the single largest cost to taxpayers, at an annual price tag of nearly $52 billion. Nearly all of those costs are absorbed by state and local governments.
• At the federal level, about one-third of outlays are matched by tax collections from illegal aliens. At the state and local level, an average of less than 5 percent of the public costs associated with illegal immigration is recouped through taxes collected from illegal aliens.
• Most illegal aliens do not pay income taxes. Among those who do, much of the revenues collected are refunded to the illegal aliens when they file tax returns. Many are also claiming tax credits resulting in payments from the U.S. Treasury.

 

[faroukfarouk]

I am not sure how accurate this is, but if it is even close to accurate....wow! I was shocked. (Link below)

*****************
The Fiscal Burden of Illegal Immigration on United States Taxpayers (2013)

Executive Summary
This report estimates the annual costs of illegal immigration at the federal, state and local level to be about $113 billion; nearly $29 billion at the federal level and $84 billion at the state and local level. The study also estimates tax collections from illegal alien workers, both those in the above-ground economy and those in the underground economy. Those receipts do not come close to the level of expenditures and, in any case, are misleading as an offset because over time unemployed and underemployed U.S. workers would replace illegal alien workers.

Key Findings

• Illegal immigration costs U.S. taxpayers about $113 billion a year at the federal, state and local level. The bulk of the costs — some $84 billion — are absorbed by state and local governments.
• The annual outlay that illegal aliens cost U.S. taxpayers is an average amount per native-headed household of $1,117. The fiscal impact per household varies considerably because the greatest share of the burden falls on state and local taxpayers whose burden depends on the size of the illegal alien population in that locality
• Education for the children of illegal aliens constitutes the single largest cost to taxpayers, at an annual price tag of nearly $52 billion. Nearly all of those costs are absorbed by state and local governments.
• At the federal level, about one-third of outlays are matched by tax collections from illegal aliens. At the state and local level, an average of less than 5 percent of the public costs associated with illegal immigration is recouped through taxes collected from illegal aliens.
• Most illegal aliens do not pay income taxes. Among those who do, much of the revenues collected are refunded to the illegal aliens when they file tax returns. Many are also claiming tax credits resulting in payments from the U.S. Treasury.

Another aspect is that there are so many Hispanic young people who do not have legal residence in the US and who have known nothing but the US and desperately want to get into the system (and they would also become taxpayers) but they can't because at election times politicians stir up people against any idea of regularizing the status of the huge underclass that exists.

At election times some politicians will cry: "Get these ppl out of here", then, once the election is over, the same politicians, who also represent business interests, take the attitude, Well, now, we need labour and companies don't want to pay more than they have to; so let's not shoot ourselves in the foot by deporting too many Hispanic people. And so it goes, over and over.

NAFTA was supposed to be about helping Mexico strengthen its labour laws. But it's been a one way street, largely: US companies set up in Mexico for cheaper labour; but the unions live in fear; the leader of Mexico's biggest labour union lives in Vancouver because of death threats.

 

[Gene2memE]

I am not sure how accurate this is, but if it is even close to accurate....wow! I was shocked. (Link below)

*****************
The Fiscal Burden of Illegal Immigration on United States Taxpayers (2013)

Ignoring the fact that the FAIR report is about taxes, rather than general economic welfare/GDP, I have some serious reservations concerning the report itself and its estimates.

My two major ones are:

1. The estimates of taxes paid by illegal immigrants is significantly lower than other estimates. FAIR's estimate for state/local taxes paid is ~3.96 billion, on a population of 13 million. By contrast, the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy estimates that the amount of state/local taxes paid by illegal immigrants is ~11.64 billion, on a population of 11 million. A Moody' Research estimate, based on an illegal immigrant population of 12 million, is about ~10.5 billion.

2. The estimates for education costs of children of illegal immigrants are very high. The FAIR estimate is $52 billion, for a population of 3.4 million, for an average cost per child per year of ~15,300. Yet, the US NCES gives a figure of $12,300 for 2013 for primary and secondary students, the US Census gives an average of $10,700 per student, and the US Annual Survey of School System Finances gives $10,900 per student. At a minimum, the FAIR report overestimates the cost of illegal immigrant education by 20%, and it may be as high as 30% too much.

In my estimation, that FAIR number (which is not the headline $113 billion figure, but actually $99 billion when you take their own estimate of illegal immigrant tax payments) is at least $15-20 billion too high. That's after taking only a couple of issues with their methodology and estimates.

I do those sort of estimates for a living and you usually have options to go with multiple different statistical routes - typically a high case, low case and an average case. I suspect that the FAIR estimate is a sort of hybrid high/low case, which uses the upper bound of some figures on the cost side and the lower bounds of others on the revenue side, in order to arrive at the sort of numbers it wants. It skews the data, but in a plausible, almost realistic way.

 

[Vylo]

don't worry, mexico will reimburse us. They will send millions of their people to work off the bill .

 

[lasthero]

I mean if people seriously thought he was going to go to Bank of Mexico, and request the entire amount upfront? That's rather naive.

Here's my thing: I knew Trump was full of it when he said Mexico would pay for the wall. But I was constantly told by his supporters that he was serious, that Mexico would pay for it DIRECTLY, out of their own pocket.

Now, and only now, when it's becoming increasingly apparent that Mexico WON'T pay for it - which they've said all along - am I hearing this stuff about loopholes and seed money and blah blah blah.

 

[TheNorwegian]

I just bought myself a new Mercedes. It was a little expensive, but my neighbour will pay for it, so that's OK. I had to pay the car dealer, but my neighbour will pay me back later.

How do I know that my neighbour will pay for my new car? Easy! I have made up my mind that he will pay for it, and I have told all my friends he will pay for i. Surely, my neighbour will not let me down on such an important issue