Trump Prosperity--Biden Depression?

[Bobber]

I'm just curious. Trump has done a rally today and said the following, "This election is a choice between a Trump super recovery and a Biden depression"

He's warned about this throughout the campaign but what if he's right?

As I do this OP, one part of the stockmarket the Dow is at 28, 335.57!

On the week before Trump was elected, not inaugurated but elected the Dow was at 18,161.19 with Obama.

Many would like to claim Trump's policies had nothing to do with the big surge ahead that it naturally was evolving upwards anyway. But what if they're wrong? What if the day after the election and Biden wins the Dow and other things drop like a stone and collapses. Is there anything with readers here which would finally acknowledge that maybe Trump was right? And how will it make you feel to see this happen? Will anyone have any feel or sense in wondering (if they supported the Dems) "Oh no! What have if done!" ?????

How will the nation be able to live with this. Wouldn't they always have on their minds they threw away the potential for a good economy.....merely because they didn't like some of Trump's tweets? Thanks for any response.

 

[Fantine]

Are you an economist? Let's ask the economists!

Economy Would Do Better Under Biden Than Trump: Moody’s

a new analysis from economists Mark Zandi and Bernard Yaros of Moody’s Analytics says that Joe Biden’s economic agenda would spur more growth than Trump’s.

Using an economic model the authors say is similar to those deployed by the Federal Reserve and the Congressional Budget Office, Zandi and Yaros estimated the impact of the candidate’s proposed policies, including changes to the tax code, infrastructure spending and health care access. The strongest growth occurs in a scenario in which Biden is able to pass his agenda through a Congress controlled by his party:

“Largely because of Biden’s substantially more expansive fiscal policies, the economy would return to full employment more quickly coming out of the pandemic than under Trump—in the second half of 2022 under Biden compared with the first half of 2024 under Trump. Biden’s reversal of Trump’s policies on foreign trade and immigration would also contribute to stronger economic growth, so that by the end of their terms in 2024, real GDP would be $960 billion, or 4.5%, larger under Biden than Trump. This translates into 7.4 million more jobs under Biden than Trump.”

 

[Gifts From Above]

Are you an economist? Let's ask the economists!

Economy Would Do Better Under Biden Than Trump: Moody’s

I’m sure that we could find economists that say the opposite.

 

[pescador]

The Dow represents the expectations of the industrial economy in the future. IMHO the Dow is high because the investors expect Biden to win and bring prosperity back to the US. Remember, the Dow represents publicly owned industrial businesses, not the economy as a whole. Almost every small business is suffering because of COVID-19, a plague that Trump has downplayed. Right now, under Trump, the US overall economy is in terrible shape.

 

[pescador]

I’m sure that we could find economists that say the opposite.

Where are they? How about some examples from reputable people? Moody's is highly respected by most people.

 

[Bobber]

Are you an economist? Let's ask the economists!

Nope but I've known lots of people who have lost lots of money listening to them. So what if were true that the day after the election or shortly thereafter EVERYTHING started to tank. Could you ever come to the place of acknowledging that maybe Trump was right?

 

[Bobber]

The Dow represents the expectations of the industrial economy in the future. IMHO the Dow is high because the investors expect Biden to win and bring prosperity back to the US. Remember, the Dow represents publicly owned industrial businesses, not the economy as a whole. Almost every small business is suffering because of COVID-19, a plague that Trump has downplayed. Right now, under Trump, the US overall economy is in terrible shape.

Well the Dow is just one indicator but how do you arrive at what you're saying when the Dow right now is at 28,335.57?

 

[Gifts From Above]

Well the Dow is just one indicator but how do you arrive at what you're saying when the Dow right now is at 28,335.57?

The DOW represents 30 large corporations and is not an indicator of the entire US economy.

 

[Quartermaine]

I'm just curious. Trump has done a rally today and said the following, "This election is a choice between a Trump super recovery and a Biden depression"

He's warned about this throughout the campaign but what if he's right?

As I do this OP, one part of the stockmarket the Dow is at 28, 335.57!

On the week before Trump was elected, not inaugurated but elected the Dow was at 18,161.19 with Obama.

Many would like to claim Trump's policies had nothing to do with the big surge ahead that it naturally was evolving upwards anyway. But what if they're wrong? What if the day after the election and Biden wins the Dow and other things drop like a stone and collapses. Is there anything with readers here which would finally acknowledge that maybe Trump was right? And how will it make you feel to see this happen? Will anyone have any feel or sense in wondering (if they supported the Dems) "Oh no! What have if done!" ?????

How will the nation be able to live with this. Wouldn't they always have on their minds they threw away the potential for a good economy.....merely because they didn't like some of Trump's tweets? Thanks for any response.

if we use this logic...election day 2008 the Dow was at 9,625.28 and at the end of the Obama administration it was 18,161.19. Are you saying that President Obama ushered in the "super recovery" that is still going on today?

 

[hedrick]

Let's look at the past. There's good reason to think that a way to deal with this kind of problem is a program of public works and other things that get the economy starts. Trump and other Republicans refused to do anything like this deal with the remainder of the 2008 recession. There's every reason to think they'll refuse to do it now.

So far the only idea Trump seems to have is to deny the facts of COVID. That's not going to get the economy started.

This comment is consistent with the Moody's analysis. Everything I know suggests that we'll do better with Biden. Just because Trump does favors for his superrich buddies doesn't mean he's good for the economy.

 

[hedrick]

There are also limits to what the government can do. There are some comparisons between US states and European countries that took different approaches. Doing nothing or little in the way of controlling the epidemic doesn't seem to have helped the economy much.

You can understand this when you look at mobility data. At least in the first wave, people had largely stopped traveling by the time lockdowns were put in place. The lockdowns had some effect but not as much as you might think.

 

[Fantine]

Bobber: Nope but I've known lots of people who have lost lots of money listening to them. So what if were true that the day after the election or shortly thereafter EVERYTHING started to tank. Could you ever come to the place of acknowledging that maybe Trump was right?

No. No. No. Since Trump neither works, nor studies, nor listens to briefings, nor listens to advisors, any correlation between the market's success or failure is purely dumb luck.

Wall St. fears him because he is so erratic and undisciplined--and both those characteristics are bad for the market.

Deregulation might have helped the market in the short term, but it played havoc with the environment. Months long forest fires in our western states--the center of our entertainment and high tech industries and a point of entry/exit for most of our imports and exports has tanked their economy--which greatly impacts ours. Similarly, devastating hurricanes harms tourism in Florida and the Gulf Coast and the oil industry in Texas. Climate change has given farmers lots of problems with their crops, and many farm states have had punishing droughts.

Trump never thinks beyond his own election and cares little about the long term environmental disasters they have inflicted on our economy. Our air and water are NOT the cleanest--we are #16, and have gone downhill since his inauguration.

His tax cuts, even before COVID, were an accident waiting to happen. Our deficits soared to more than a trillion dollars a year. Why is this a problem?

For years, we have "borrowed" from the Social Security 'trust fund,' and paid no or miniscule interst on the debt. Social Security is in a time of temporary deficit, and for the foreseeable future will not have a surplus to loan the federal government. That means we need to borrow from foreign countries like China...

This is bad because 1) if you owe money to foreign countries, they have power over you. They can call in the loan at an inoportune time and trigger a financial crisis. 2) Foreign nations won't invest in the U.S. for miniscule interest. They will want the going rate. Spending all that money on interest will impact our ability to perform other necessary functions of government.

But once again, Trump is just interested in reelection--not leaving this country a better place for his children and granchildren.

 

[Fantine]

Biden is older than the standard life expectancy of a male which is 76 in 2020 in the US. He is 77 years old. He needs to retire. It is ridiculous that he is running for office at his age.

Then again, look at Jimmy Carter at 96, with ten times' Trump's intelligence. And of course we are comparing America's most moral president to its least moral one.

Writing inspiring books, working for world peace, eradicating illness all over Africa and Asia, setting up a large enough solar field on his peanut farm to provide power to his whole town of Plains, Georgia.

It sickens me to think how Trump might spend his "retirement" (if he happens to avoid prison, which is probably unlikely). Launching a "Hate TV" station to continue cooperating with Putin in creating chaos in America?

 

[Fantine]

What bothers me is I remember when Obama reimplemented the Bush tax cuts because of the economic slow down. Does anyone remember that?

However, now Biden wants to raise taxes during the Covid induced slow down?

Recessions are special.situations. if you ignore them,the deficit rises because tax revenues are lower. Better to spend, help people, and get tax revenues rising.

Obama's stimulus was geared to the middle and working classes. Biden would do the same. The over $400K tax increase would be post-vaccine.

Re: COVID. China exported COVID all over the world--but our case numbers are TEN TIMES HIGHER than all but two other countries, and highest in the world.

That is because of everything other countries did in the past seven months while Trump was listening to quacks, making fun of masks, and holding contagion fests all over.

If he did something right, our case numbers would not be TEN TIMES HIGHER.

As Biden said, with 4% of the world's population we have 25% of the cases.

I can explain why in one word. Trump.

 

[Bobber]

if we use this logic...election day 2008 the Dow was at 9,625.28 and at the end of the Obama administration it was 18,161.19. Are you saying that President Obama ushered in the "super recovery" that is still going on today?

But the Feds dropped interest rates down to around 0% for pretty much Obama's full term. So again if Biden is elected and the economy tanks will people acknowledge that Trump was probably right that Dem policies scare investors away and they take their money elsewhere?

 

[Archivist]

Trump is a much better choice for President.

Wrong.

Biden has dementia.

Proof of this please. Do you have reports from his doctors?

Trump supports evangelicals.

So?

Trump is prolife.

I doubt that. Trump has made prolife appointments Only to get right-wing support.

Trump also has Pence on his ticket who is a Christian and he supports the appointment of other conservative Christians to office.

So? Does that give us better officials?

 

[Archivist]

Biden is too old for this office.

Oliver Wendell Holmes was 90 when he retired from the US Supreme Court. He is rated as being among our best Justices and he wrote some of his best decisions in his later years.

 

[Fantine]

The only people who had to pay penalties were people who would not buy insurance. Expanded Medicaid (chosen by enlightened states) and subsidies helped the rest.
Look around the world--where every country except two has 1000% fewer cases. 1000% less. Does that not sink in? Only three counties over 1 million---and we will hit nine million tomorrow!!
Caused by a failure in leadership!
Businesses should have reopened according to.the CDC plan, with strict mask and distancing rules. Our infection.rate has doubled in the past week to over 80,000 per day.
Almost as if God is giving us a wake up call. "Stop letting a depraved madman lead!"
Listen, people...

 

[Albion]

I'm just curious. Trump has done a rally today and said the following, "This election is a choice between a Trump super recovery and a Biden depression"

He's warned about this throughout the campaign but what if he's right?

As I do this OP, one part of the stockmarket the Dow is at 28, 335.57!

On the week before Trump was elected, not inaugurated but elected the Dow was at 18,161.19 with Obama.

Many would like to claim Trump's policies had nothing to do with the big surge ahead that it naturally was evolving upwards anyway. But what if they're wrong? What if the day after the election and Biden wins the Dow and other things drop like a stone and collapses. Is there anything with readers here which would finally acknowledge that maybe Trump was right? And how will it make you feel to see this happen? Will anyone have any feel or sense in wondering (if they supported the Dems) "Oh no! What have if done!" ?????

How will the nation be able to live with this. Wouldn't they always have on their minds they threw away the potential for a good economy.....merely because they didn't like some of Trump's tweets? Thanks for any response.

There's almost no way that a recession could NOT follow if Biden has his way, as president, on all the promises he's made relating to the economy.

 

[Quartermaine]

But the Feds dropped interest rates down to around 0% for pretty much Obama's full term. So again if Biden is elected and the economy tanks will people acknowledge that Trump was probably right that Dem policies scare investors away and they take their money elsewhere?

quick quiz. what was the rate in fall of 2008....and what is it today?