The U.S. crime rate is still dropping, FBI data shows. Q4 2023 had 13% drop in murder, 6% drop in violent crime

QvQ · Mar 23, 2024

This depends on where a person is.
It is very quiet in rural America. I haven't seen a person, much less a crime, this week.
However a friend in California sees brazen shoplifting and home robberies in her neighborhood.
She visited San Francisco. It is filthy and she was assaulted by a homeless person, pushy panhandler, nothing to call the police about but still...
So my perception of crime rate is 0
Her perception is crime rate 1000% increase from a few years ago.
She is a Two Issue California Democrat "abortion and marijuana"
But now she is going to vote Republican.
She said, "Something has to change."

iluvatar5150 · Mar 23, 2024

QvQ said:
This depends on where a person is.
It is very quiet in rural America. I haven't seen a person, much less a crime, this week.
However a friend in California sees brazen shoplifting and home robberies in her neighborhood.
She visited San Francisco. It is filthy and she was assaulted by a homeless person, pushy panhandler, nothing to call the police about but still...
So my perception of crime rate is 0
Her perception is crime rate 1000% increase from a few years ago.
She is a Two Issue California Democrat "abortion and marijuana"
But now she is going to vote Republican.
She said, "Something has to change."

Urban areas have hundreds or thousands of times more people than rural areas. Even at the same per capita incidence rates, an urban area can have the same number of incidents in a day that a rural area will have in a year. Those raw number skew perceptions even if they don’t tell an accurate story.

The Barbarian · Mar 23, 2024

NxNW said:
Never happened.

Police caught a surprising number of white supremacists trying to incite riots in the protests. Many were committing acts of violence and vandalism themselves. At least two right-wing activists have been arrested for murder of police officers while trying to blame it on BLM. (documentation on request)

So far, no member of BLM has been shown to have been involved.

No one with any sense believes those stories the right is peddling.

The Barbarian · Mar 23, 2024

iluvatar5150 said:
Urban areas have hundreds or thousands of times more people than rural areas. Even at the same per capita incidence rates, an urban area can have the same number of incidents in a day that a rural area will have in a year. Those raw number skew perceptions even if they don’t tell an accurate story.

Most people know this. If mere numbers of crimes would make one a pro-Trump extremist, then cities would be full of Trump supporters. As you point out, it's the rate of crime that matters. And...

The homicide rate in New York is 4.0. The homicide rate in Kansas is 6.4. As a matter of fact, the top six states with highest homicide rates are predominately rural states. Five red states, one purple state. Which, if you think about it, makes sense.

Four of the six states with lowest homicide rates are blue states from the urbanized northeast. The other two are western red states. Which again, is what one might expect.

iluvatar5150 said:
Those raw number skew perceptions even if they don’t tell an accurate story.

Not everyone is gullible, but some people can be frightened by charlatans who lie about it.

QvQ · Mar 23, 2024

iluvatar5150 said:
Those raw number skew perceptions even if they don’t tell an accurate story.

Perceptions, when a neighborhood where someone grew up, played in the street and went to school, is a crime riddled slum, are usually accurate.
My friend was visiting her old neighborhood, which according to her report, is now an urban slum. It was a normal middle class neighborhood when she was growing up.
And her neighborhood, where she lives now, is fairly rural and was a nice upscale area a few years ago, has an increase in street people, home robberies and shoplifting.

And I say there isn't any crime. However I am fairly close to the border which is the largest crime scene in the US. So far, the Border Patrol ships them out to facilities in other areas but I am aware of that crime.

iluvatar5150 · Mar 23, 2024

QvQ said:
Perceptions, when a neighborhood where someone grew up, played in the street and went to school, is a crime riddled slum, are usually accurate.
My friend was visiting her old neighborhood, which according to her report, is now an urban slum. It was a normal middle class neighborhood when she was growing up.
And her neighborhood, where she lives now, is fairly rural and was a nice upscale area a few years ago, has an increase in street people, home robberies and shoplifting.

And I say there isn't any crime. However I am fairly close to the border which is the largest crime scene in the US. So far, the Border Patrol ships them out to facilities in other areas but I am aware of that crime.

Perceptions may be correct about trends within a small area (and even then, I’m skeptical), but they’re basically useless for anything beyond that. Nobody without a lot of data is privy to what’s actually going on on a macro level- we’re all at the mercy of what we read in the media. For every neighborhood that may have taken a dive in the last few years, there’s another one that’s gentrifying.

The Barbarian · Mar 23, 2024

iluvatar5150 said:
Perceptions may be correct about trends within a small area (and even then, I’m skeptical), but they’re basically useless for anything beyond that.

This is a book America needs badly:

Innumeracy (book) - Wikipedia

Tinker Grey · Mar 23, 2024

The Barbarian said:
This is a book America needs badly:

Innumeracy (book) - Wikipedia

I have that book. I've read it twice. It's been a few decades now, though. I should read it again.

The Barbarian · Mar 23, 2024

Me too. Everyone should read it every so often, just to remember the different ways you can logically mess up with data.

The Barbarian · Mar 23, 2024

QvQ said:
However I am fairly close to the border which is the largest crime scene in the US.

Well, let's take a look...

In 2022, the most recent year available, the El Paso Police Department reported 1,692 crimes per 100,000 people. Only nine of the nation’s 100 largest cities reported lower crime rates, according to crime data compiled by the FBI.

Frisco and Laredo, which are less than half as populous as El Paso, were the only Texas cities with lower crime rates.

Fact Brief: Was El Paso one of the safest big cities in the US in 2022?

YES. In 2022, the most recent year available, the El Paso Police Department reported 1,692 crimes per 100,000 people. Only nine of the nation’s 100 largest cities reported lower crime rates, according to crime data compiled by the FBI.

elpasomatters.org

Betcha can't guess where Laredo is... yep.

Frisco, however, is near Dallas. One out of three is pretty good, compared to a lot of people posting here, though.

QvQ · Mar 23, 2024

As Per the OP
Why does the public think it's going up? “There is definitely more disorder in cities than there was five years ago," said one expert. “People confuse disorder and crime."

Definitely more disorder than there was 5 years ago.
Yes, poop on the street and a shaggy drugged up man grabbing my friends arm, hanging on to her while demanding money are not reportable crimes.
However that is disorder.
Strange people wandering around in the woods behind her home and her neighbor car being broken into is definitely disorder
Thousands of migrants crossing the border is disorder.

There is definitely more disorder in our cities than there was 5 years ago,
Now, the Republicans are aware of the perception and the reality of that disorder. Does it really require X number of murder per 100,000 before people are uncomfortable enough to start demanding a clean up of disorder?

That is where the democrats with the "statistics" miss the point. And call it innumeracy if you like but many people can't see the difference between disorder and crime. Neither are acceptable.
It is a Democrat parsing to state disorder is definitely increasing but crime is going down
That is factual illiteracy.

ThatRobGuy · Mar 23, 2024

The Barbarian said:
I notice that New York isn't even in the top 50 highest crime rate cities in America. It is the 12th safest large city in America.

Ranked: America’s 15 Safest Cities For 2024, According To A Report

Searching for the safest cities in the U.S.? MoneyGeek has issued its annual report on the safest cities in America.

www.forbes.com

So the recent decline in crime in NYC is not a statistical artifact. Apples to apples.

If you notice, Forbes is using the same FBI dataset that I mentioned in my post before.

New York (both the city and the state) have very low reporting rates to NIBRS.

You can report the data 15 different ways, and use 15 different methodologies as a means of interpreting it...but at the end of the day, if you have several precincts not using it at all, and the rest reporting to it in a way that's spotty at best, any interpretation from that dataset is going to be an undercount.

The FBI's decision to rely solely on NIBRS (instead of using NIBRS and NCVS as complementary data sets) only works if law enforcement agencies are using it.

Per the Marshall Project (which is a pro-police reform, with a focus on inequity in policing source...so certainly not a right wing bias)

See if Police in Your State Reported Crime Data to the FBI

Nearly one-third of law enforcement agencies are missing from the FBI's 2022 crime statistics. Use our tables to check on your state and local agencies.

www.themarshallproject.org

In New York: 24% of law enforcement agencies reported crime data to the FBI, and 16% reported a full year of crime data.

That's such a low reporting rate (like I mentioned earlier, the only state worse for reporting to that system is Florida), that's it's nearly impossible to establish a trend one way or the other.

The fact that NYC residents (and the NYC mayor) have concerns should be telling. NYC is a very blue city (over 70% registered democrats). It's not as if their concerns/perceptions of increasing crime are merely the result of them buying into right-wing scaremongering from Fox News.

The Barbarian · Mar 23, 2024

ThatRobGuy said:
If you notice, Forbes is using the same FBI dataset that I mentioned in my post before.

Yes. Apples-to-apples comparison; same yardstick all cities.

ThatRobGuy said:
The fact that NYC residents (and the NYC mayor) have concerns should be telling. NYC is a very blue city (over 70% registered democrats). It's not as if their concerns/perceptions of increasing crime are merely the result of them buying into right-wing scaremongering from Fox News.

I don't think "the police are lying" is a very good excuse. Check FBI stats. Same things show up.

QvQ · Mar 23, 2024

The Barbarian said:
In 2022, the most recent year available, the El Paso Police Department reported 1,692 crimes per 100,000 people. Only nine of the nation’s 100 largest cities reported lower crime rates, according to crime data compiled by the FBI.

Laredo is on the border.
The border counties are heavily policed and monitored.

The Barbarian · Mar 23, 2024

QvQ said:
Laredo is on the border.

So is El Paso. Frisco isn't.

QvQ said:
The border counties are heavily policed and monitored.

More importantly, they have a high number of illegal aliens there:

Immigrants are significantly less likely to commit crimes than the U.S.-born

A study co-led by Northwestern University economist Elisa Jácome provides the first historical comparison of incarceration rates of immigrants to U.S.-born citizens.<br />

news.northwestern.edu

Historically, Frisco had a high percentage of Hispanics, well above that of North Texas generally at the time. It was a railroad town for the Frisco line and a lot of Mexican railroad workers settled there. Changed a lot lately. It's built up and plasticky with lots of McMansions. And the crime issue is changing as the demographics have changed...

Frisco sees increase in vehicle thefts, decline in crimes against people

Crimes against people have been falling in Frisco overall in comparison to the past year, according to city data.

communityimpact.com

ThatRobGuy · Mar 23, 2024

The Barbarian said:
Yes. Apples-to-apples comparison; same yardstick all cities.

No, it's not the same yardstick.

If 70% of Cleveland's police are reporting their stuff to the FBI, and only 13% NYC's police are reporting their stuff...that's not the same.

If we had an alcohol reporting system.
And I report 80% of my 5 beers, and you only report 20% of your 10 beers, the data would show that I had 4 and you had 2.

In actuality, you'd be twice as drunk as me, but the reporting system data would make it look like it was the other way around.

The Barbarian said:
I don't think "the police are lying" is a very good excuse. Check FBI stats. Same things show up.

Who said the police were lying? I was merely stating a fact that certain states have poor reporting rates to the NIBRS.

This is something that even Democratic NYC city officials have noted. (NYC actually jeopardized federal funding after they were given a grant to get their reporting up to speed, and failed to do so)

Since 2017, the feds paid New York City a total of nearly $24 million in grants that the police agency was allowed to use to get its reporting system in line.

But the NYPD has yet to comply with the voluntary system after years of warning — and now has a hard deadline of June to make the grade.

Failure to meet the deadline could lead to a funding loss of up to $4 million in law-enforcement grants at least next year — and Big Apple lawmakers fuming as the city faces a possibly dire fiscal future.

“At a time like this, when it comes to keeping New Yorkers safe, leaving a penny on the table would be a dereliction of duty,” said city Councilman Justin Brannan (D-Brooklyn)

QvQ · Mar 23, 2024

The Barbarian said:
So is El Paso. Frisco isn't.

Statistics don't tell half the story:
Crime, vehicle theft is increasing in SF. Murder rate is down.
There are people pooping on the street, accosting pedestrians and openly injecting drugs.
That is Disorder.
Definitely increasing.
It was a crime to spit on the street in San Francisco.
Jaywalking was a crime. Now the tents are in the traffic lanes.
That is Disorder. That is what the Republicans understand and Democrats do deny

Also, what part of illegal don't you understand?
To commit an illegal act is a crime.

Lukaris · Mar 23, 2024

The Barbarian said:
This is a book America needs badly:

Innumeracy (book) - Wikipedia

If the conclusions fit the politics of course. If they do not then this gold standard would have to be being abused otherwise.

The Barbarian · Mar 23, 2024

Lukaris said:
If the conclusions fit the politics of course.

That's the MAGA fixation. It's why they depend on innumeracy to spread their cult.

Lukaris said:
If they do not then this gold standard would have to be being abused otherwise.

Which is what all the denial we see here is about.

The Barbarian · Mar 23, 2024

QvQ said:
Statistics don't tell half the story:

People who fall for that one, are the people who make casinos rich.

QvQ said:
Crime, vehicle theft is increasing in SF. Murder rate is down.

In most places, crime is significantly down from the Trump rise in crime. Would you like me to show you again?

QvQ said:
Also, what part of illegal don't you understand?

Not everything illegal is a crime. Try to stay focused.

The U.S. crime rate is still dropping, FBI data shows. Q4 2023 had 13% drop in murder, 6% drop in violent crime

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