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Discussion and Debate
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American Politics
The trouble with envisioning Covid-19 growth.
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<blockquote data-quote="essentialsaltes" data-source="post: 74843419" data-attributes="member: 294566"><p>No, it isn't.</p><p></p><p><em></em></p><p><em></em></p><p>Quote marks are supposed to mean direct exact quotes, especially in a case like this where a blogger is leveling charges of 'two-facedness'. Neither the phrase "no worse" nor "very bad flu" appear in <a href="https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387" target="_blank">the article</a>. The blog post is a lie.</p><p></p><p>The closest thing in the article is:</p><p><em>On the basis of a case definition requiring a diagnosis of pneumonia, the currently reported case fatality rate is approximately 2%.<a href="https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387#" target="_blank">4</a> In another article in the Journal, Guan et al.<a href="https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387#" target="_blank">5</a> report mortality of 1.4% among 1099 patients with laboratory-confirmed Covid-19; these patients had a wide spectrum of disease severity. <strong>If one assumes</strong> that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate<strong> may be</strong> considerably less than 1%. This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 <strong>may ultimately be</strong> more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.</em></p><p></p><p>[my emphasis] In other words, two published estimates are 2% and 1.4%, but Fauci et al. allow that there is a possibility it <strong>may be</strong> considerably less, on the not unreasonable <strong>assumption</strong> that there are asymptomatic cases flying under the radar.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="essentialsaltes, post: 74843419, member: 294566"] No, it isn't. [I] [/I] Quote marks are supposed to mean direct exact quotes, especially in a case like this where a blogger is leveling charges of 'two-facedness'. Neither the phrase "no worse" nor "very bad flu" appear in [URL='https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387']the article[/URL]. The blog post is a lie. The closest thing in the article is: [I]On the basis of a case definition requiring a diagnosis of pneumonia, the currently reported case fatality rate is approximately 2%.[URL='https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387#']4[/URL] In another article in the Journal, Guan et al.[URL='https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387#']5[/URL] report mortality of 1.4% among 1099 patients with laboratory-confirmed Covid-19; these patients had a wide spectrum of disease severity. [B]If one assumes[/B] that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate[B] may be[/B] considerably less than 1%. This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 [B]may ultimately be[/B] more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.[/I] [I][/I] [my emphasis] In other words, two published estimates are 2% and 1.4%, but Fauci et al. allow that there is a possibility it [B]may be[/B] considerably less, on the not unreasonable [B]assumption[/B] that there are asymptomatic cases flying under the radar. [/QUOTE]
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The trouble with envisioning Covid-19 growth.
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