The trouble with envisioning Covid-19 growth.

[Paulos23]

A number of people have been just looking at the current number of Covid-19 cases or deaths, when what we should be looking at is the growth, as talked about in this video.

This graph is great for telling how each country is doing in case growth. It is not perfect, but it is a great way to at the data we have.

Covid Trends

Based on the graph, the US had not halted the number of new cases per day. Until we start doing that, we still need to shelter at home.

 

[Al Touthentop]

A number of people have been just looking at the current number of Covid-19 cases or deaths, when what we should be looking at is the growth, as talked about in this video.

This graph is great for telling how each country is doing in case growth. It is not perfect, but it is a great way to at the data we have.

Covid Trends

Based on the graph, the US had not halted the number of new cases per day. Until we start doing that, we still need to shelter at home.

Correlation is not causation. The virus is not transmittable unless a person shows symptoms. So it isn't necessary to shut down the entire country to also "flatten the curve" as South Korea learned during its MERS outbreak (another coronavirus).

What Happened When a Country Was Quarantined and Locked Down Due to a Coronavirus Outbreak - LewRockwell LewRockwell.com

 

[rambot]

It doesn't help that I believe China exactly 0%

 

[Al Touthentop]

It doesn't help that I believe China exactly 0%

I believe the US government exactly the same.

 

[Paulos23]

Correlation is not causation. The virus is not transmittable unless a person shows symptoms. So it isn't necessary to shut down the entire country to also "flatten the curve" as South Korea learned during its MERS outbreak (another coronavirus).

What Happened When a Country Was Quarantined and Locked Down Due to a Coronavirus Outbreak - LewRockwell LewRockwell.com

Um, no. It is transmittable before you show symptoms.

https://www.sciencenews.org/article/coronavirus-most-contagious-before-during-first-week-symptoms

And second, it is spreading. We need to slow it down and because there is not enough tests, we should shut the country down as much as possible.

 

[lasthero]

Correlation is not causation. The virus is not transmittable unless a person shows symptoms

Where did you hear that from? I’m pretty sure that’s not true.

 

[rambot]

I believe the US government exactly the same.

Hmmm. I think, and I can't believe I'm saying this, I believe Trump MORE than I believe the Chinese government.
But the further people are from trump and the more competency they show in their task, the more I am likely to believe them.

 

[SimplyMe]

Correlation is not causation. The virus is not transmittable unless a person shows symptoms. So it isn't necessary to shut down the entire country to also "flatten the curve" as South Korea learned during its MERS outbreak (another coronavirus).

What Happened When a Country Was Quarantined and Locked Down Due to a Coronavirus Outbreak - LewRockwell LewRockwell.com

Actually, the most recent evidence shows that people can transmit the virus without having symptoms. Granted, more research is still needed, but when you have evidence that the virus is being spread by non-symptomatic individuals it is better to err on the side of caution.

 

[Al Touthentop]

Um, no. It is transmittable before you show symptoms.

https://www.sciencenews.org/article/coronavirus-most-contagious-before-during-first-week-symptoms

And second, it is spreading. We need to slow it down and because there is not enough tests, we should shut the country down as much as possible.

The NIH says no.

A Chinese Case of COVID-19 Did Not Show Infectivity During the Incubation Period: Based on an Epidemiological Survey. - PubMed - NCBI

Controversy remains over whether the novel coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) virus may have infectivity during the incubation period before the onset of symptoms. The author had the opportunity to examine the infectivity of COVID-19 during the incubation period by conducting an epidemiological survey on a confirmed patient who had visited Jeju Island during the incubation period. The epidemiological findings support the claim that the COVID-19 virus does not have infectivity during the incubation period.

Let's just put everyone in prison indefinitely.

 

[RocksInMyHead]

The NIH says no.

A Chinese Case of COVID-19 Did Not Show Infectivity During the Incubation Period: Based on an Epidemiological Survey. - PubMed - NCBI

Controversy remains over whether the novel coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) virus may have infectivity during the incubation period before the onset of symptoms. The author had the opportunity to examine the infectivity of COVID-19 during the incubation period by conducting an epidemiological survey on a confirmed patient who had visited Jeju Island during the incubation period. The epidemiological findings support the claim that the COVID-19 virus does not have infectivity during the incubation period.

Let's just put everyone in prison indefinitely.

That's one case - hardly a representative sample size. Also, not the NIH.

 

[Al Touthentop]

Actually, the most recent evidence shows that people can transmit the virus without having symptoms. Granted, more research is still needed, but when you have evidence that the virus is being spread by non-symptomatic individuals it is better to err on the side of caution.

There has been study already. The NIH says that it has found it isn't transmittable during the incubation period. Locking down the entire country isn't necessary. South Korea almost ruined its economy during the 2015 MERS outbreak and the WHO has already published its findings on coronavirus and says that such lockdowns are not necessary to prevent transmission.

We should follow their already-researched guidelines. South Korea flattened the curve with covid-19 without shutting down their economy, having learned their lesson from 2015. We're not operating using reliable scientific facts, we're operating on hysteria and panic.

How South Korea Flattened the Curve

 

[SimplyMe]

The NIH says no.

A Chinese Case of COVID-19 Did Not Show Infectivity During the Incubation Period: Based on an Epidemiological Survey. - PubMed - NCBI

Controversy remains over whether the novel coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) virus may have infectivity during the incubation period before the onset of symptoms. The author had the opportunity to examine the infectivity of COVID-19 during the incubation period by conducting an epidemiological survey on a confirmed patient who had visited Jeju Island during the incubation period. The epidemiological findings support the claim that the COVID-19 virus does not have infectivity during the incubation period.

Let's just put everyone in prison indefinitely.

You should probably take a second look at the top of the page you linked, "COVID-19 is an emerging, rapidly evolving situation.
"Get the latest public health information from CDC: https://www.coronavirus.gov .
"Get the latest research from NIH: Coronavirus (COVID-19)."

The study you linked is from almost a month ago -- and more recent studies appear to show that it can be spread without symptoms (as we've linked in previous posts). Additionally, if you follow the link on the page you posted, you get to the CDC pages which say this: "Some spread might be possible before people show symptoms; there have been reports of this occurring with this new coronavirus, but this is not thought to be the main way the virus spreads."

 

[Al Touthentop]

You should probably take a second look at the top of the page you linked, "COVID-19 is an emerging, rapidly evolving situation.
"Get the latest public health information from CDC: https://www.coronavirus.gov .
"Get the latest research from NIH: Coronavirus (COVID-19)."

The study you linked is from almost a month ago -- and more recent studies appear to show that it can be spread without symptoms (as we've linked in previous posts). Additionally, if you follow the link on the page you posted, you get to the CDC pages which say this: "Some spread might be possible before people show symptoms; there have been reports of this occurring with this new coronavirus, but this is not thought to be the main way the virus spreads."

"Might" is not conclusive. This same hysteria proved disastrous in 2015 and S. Korea's response in 2019-2020 has proven that draconian lockdowns are not at all necessary to control the spread.

 

[nonaeroterraqueous]

Um, no. It is transmittable before you show symptoms.

https://www.sciencenews.org/article/coronavirus-most-contagious-before-during-first-week-symptoms

"Infectious viruses were isolated from about 17 percent of nose and throat swabs and more than 83 percent of phlegm samples during that first week, researchers report March 8 in a study posted at medRxiv.org."

Um, no.

They needed to perform an environmental analysis, specifically air, and they didn't. The only thing they really proved was that a person can be infected with a lytic virus and still have no symptoms. The mode of transmission is still a symptom (a cough).

 

[Al Touthentop]

That's one case - hardly a representative sample size. Also, not the NIH.

Is not the information published on the NIH website?

 

[Al Touthentop]

You should probably take a second look at the top of the page you linked, "COVID-19 is an emerging, rapidly evolving situation.
"Get the latest public health information from CDC: https://www.coronavirus.gov .
"Get the latest research from NIH: Coronavirus (COVID-19)."

The study you linked is from almost a month ago -- and more recent studies appear to show that it can be spread without symptoms (as we've linked in previous posts). Additionally, if you follow the link on the page you posted, you get to the CDC pages which say this: "Some spread might be possible before people show symptoms; there have been reports of this occurring with this new coronavirus, but this is not thought to be the main way the virus spreads."

Covid 19 is a coronavirus which may be a novel strain but we have 60 years of research on viruses of this type. The fact that a link exists that says that one can get "latest" information, has no bearing on the actual research.

So, I don't find it a worthy refutation of the research to point to some URL somewhere and say the information is the 'latest' or that a situation is 'evolving.' That means nothing at all really in context. South Korea has flattened their curve WITHOUT instituting lockdowns. Are you suggesting that they have a different situation? Is the virus changing?

 

[Paulos23]

OK, but look at the graph. Based on the current cases vs new cases we are on the same growth line as every other country except China and South Korea. I understand that people don't think China is telling the truth, so look at South Korea. Until we do stop this virus from spreading, it will keep going up.

We need to halt the number of new cases.

 

[lasthero]

South Korea has flattened their curve WITHOUT instituting lockdowns. Are you suggesting that they have a different situation?

Well, yeah. For one thing, they started testing earlier and were more widespread with it, even accounting for the differences in our population. It’s obviously easier to control the spread when you have a better idea of who’s actually infected.

 

[Al Touthentop]

Hmmm. I think, and I can't believe I'm saying this, I believe Trump MORE than I believe the Chinese government.
But the further people are from trump and the more competency they show in their task, the more I am likely to believe them.

Personally, I think Trump is lying through his teeth. Why, for instance, do we need to give trillions to the Fed, a private corporation, for a medical crisis?

COVID-19 is being hyped to hide the already-existing economic crisis which will be greatly expanded by the steps being taken now to "fix" it. What was the Fed's response to the crisis it created in 2008? Do exactly what it did to create that crisis, inflate the currency. It wants to do that now.

Consider this: In 2008 when we were told that the bailout amount was 750 billion, a partial audit of the Fed discovered that the actual amount of money they "spent" on the crisis was 16 TRILLION, 9 TRILLION of which they could not account for. And rather than that money being limited to American institutions that were in crisis, they gave billions of that money to foreign banks.

The Fed's $16 Trillion Bailouts Under-Reported

If the stated amount is currently near 4 trillion going to the Fed, imagine what the actual number might be.

 

[mark46]

OK, but look at the graph. Based on the current cases vs new cases we are on the same growth line as every other country except China and South Korea. I understand that people don't think China is telling the truth, so look at South Korea. Until we do stop this virus from spreading, it will keep going up.

We need to halt the number of new cases.

What you say is certainly true. However, what is immediately needed to help focus resources in to have random testing in every zip code nationwide. This should be done every week. We will then a have an idea of the number of cases. Now, the number of reported cases is a canton of the number of tests.

In addition, and obviously, the government should use its authority to ORDER the testing companies to go to 24/7 shifts and expanded facilities and the production of PEDs. In some areas, it is taking 5 days for tests to come back, and PED's are still lacking. Finally, FEMA should be allowed to control the supply chain, deciding where supplies of PEDs should be shipped on a daily basis (and using military transportation of necessary). BTW, these step are relatively minor ones.