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the self replicating watch argument

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Anguspure

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Probability of something happening or not happening is an extremely good predictor, particularly where very high or very low probabilities are concerned.
Recognising this sort of thing in design is something that we all do many times daily, intuatively. It takes a very special class of people who feel the need to reduce such things to numbers before they maybe, perhaps, might be able to aknowledge design.
 
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Anguspure

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Why assume this at all? I always find it odd how IDists/creationists seem to jump so easily from "evidence of design" to theological implications.

There is a pretty wide gap separating those two concepts.
I am not the one who started frothing about politics making connections that are difficult to establish. I was merely agreeing that there is a philosophical link.
 
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Anguspure

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The very highest quality designed and manufactured goods show no sign of tooling. Are you suggesting that the biological designer will have had to have had the technical skills of a beaver before we might aknowledge the presence of design?
 
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Anguspure

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Your paragraph above displays a fantastically high level of functional coherence, so high that it is physically impossible that it could have originated by accident even once in the history of this universe.
But as yet I have not had any subsequent confirmation of the validity of the calculation and have serious misgivings about the presence of intelligence behind it.
 
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46AND2

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In my experience, creationists are horrendous at determining probabilities...or incapable of even grasping how they are utilized, for that matter.
 
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46AND2

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So, then it appears, as yet, not to be a good indicator of design. Got it. That's what I figured.

Please be sure to alert me after further development. I'll hold my breath.
 
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Speedwell

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And that "designer" will be God as conceived of by Creationists--none other will be tolerated. That is what the creation/evolution controversy is about. It is not a cosmic struggle between theismand atheism.
 
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46AND2

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If you see a blue rose at the florist, what would your intuition say about its design probability? Remember, intuition only. No use of any kind of botany knowledge allowed.

If your method is such an extremely good predictor, why can't you give me even a single success story?

If you believe all things are created by god, wouldn't your probability be 100 percent, all the time?
 
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Speedwell

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If you believe all things are created by god, wouldn't your probability be 100 percent, all the time?
That's the point--it's unfalsifiable. But that won't do for an IDist. They have to be able to prove it with science, or else we are going to keep to the beliefs about God that we have now (whether we believe in God or not).
 
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Bugeyedcreepy

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Natural reproduction does not provide explanation for origin. We are discussing origin here. Evolution and development after an origin of a reproductive organism is another thing altogether.
Well, the earliest fossilised examples of microbes don't have flagella. As for unique structures emerging, there are a number of plausible paths as demonstrated, especially from the Type II Secretory system of the bacterium that caused the Bubonic Plague. These are natural processes we know occur that don't have an intelligent designer.
I agree, however: Biology is the study of complicated things that have the appearance of having been designed with a purpose. Richard Dawkins
Design and purpose is evident in biology so an honest student will follow the evidence where it leads.
"Appearance of design", because we know of and have in fact observed the natural process that causes this phenomena, and it isn't an intelligent designer - it is Evolution by natural selection! We've observed it to no end, we've documented many, many ways in which it happens and we've never been able to falsify it. Why don't you ask these Biologists why they don't believe in any Intelligent Designer....after all, they are absolutely qualified, and have followed the evidence to its inevitable conclusion, right? Of all people you could ask, surely they'd be in the know?
That's presumptuous to say a natural explanation will never be known - you might be right but even if you are right and we'll never have a verified explanation, that's still not confirmation that it didn't happen naturally.
The language of biology and the engineering developments that we have copied from biology is sprinkled unavoidsbly with design language. Clearly the phenomina is evident and we see what the Designer has designed.
The process of Evolution gives rise to this phenomenon. If you understood it, you'd know this.
Do you deny that the Model T Ford was designed? I do not see Henry Ford tinkering with it today, are you going to suggest that the designer is not evident?
We have a wide variety of verifiable documents, photography and
It hasn't and is still in full effect - nothing has changed with respect to evolution, and it's all working as it has all along just fine. Why do you say all that when it's not what we observe? What's your reference?
Well, none of that correlates with the actual data, so what's your reference for it?
LOL. The elephant in the room of course is the designer of the experiment.
I suppose that you will try to tell me that your post was not designed either.
My post sure is designed, no problem there. You're right, even the environment for the experiments are designed too, but the evolutionary reaction to the intelligently designed environment (i.e. the topic of study) is completely natural. Literally the only thing designed is the environment, and that's so we can study how evolution reacts to such conditions and changes in nature. I understand you don't like that we make these observations that continue to affirm the Theory of Evolution, but perhaps you could accept the evidence since it is reality after all, plenty of other religious folk of all stripes (not just Christianity) can do it, so you can too.
No tools suitable for the job have been found in the location. The inference you are making is one from design. You asdume that certain marks reveal purpose and itelligent activity and therefore invoke tools and a tool user to explain this.
Well, we can indeed find out if they were made or naturally occur, and archaeologists do it all the time. Point to note though, we do sometimes have trouble working out whether a tool was made by a fellow human, or earlier hominid species that came before us. there's often debate about that in the scientific community, so it isn't as clear-cut as you'd like to think it is. Nobody that works in the field just "infers" design, so you're mistaken on that point.
It is a mathematical tool for determining whether accidental invention is plausable as an explanation.
Perhaps post the link, because I still can't see it and your description isn't helping. A reference on its use would also be helpful too.
In all of our experience the appearance of design and purpose is only explained by one cause, that is a designer.
No, it just isn't. Evolution (as mentioned innumerable times by people working in this field) creates the illusion of design without any intelligence involved - we've seen it happen in real time both in the lab and in the field. You're just wrong.
To be expected to suspend this inference for the sake of a few fools that wish to deny the presence of design in biology is absurdity in the extreme.
Show me the Designer then. We have demonstrable evidence that Evolution does it already, so your evidence of a "designer" will have to be just as convincing as the evidence we already have in spades for Evolution.
No, because we literally have the evidence of a designer designing these tools, even if we haven't seen the specific designer for this specific designed thing, we have a well-established history of these things being designed and relocated accordingly. Nothing like that for naturally occurring organisms.

I'm sorry you don't like that your idea isn't just accepted by people exercising critical thinking and the scientific method, but this is how science is done, and it is literally the best way we have to get to the most probable truth of a thing. No other method has proven as successful.
On the contrare, they are chocker with it. Even the most outspoken opposition to Creationism admits it.
...that it looks like design, but isn't? Sure. Doesn't mean it IS designed by an intelligent designer because as mentioned ad-nauseum, we have well-established evidence of Evolution doing this. No evidence of a designer even being involved, let alone evidence of said designer designing anything...
 
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Bugeyedcreepy

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I *Literally* Cannot Wait to see how you come to the probability of something being designed! I thought you believe Everything is designed, so this is gonna be good. I would like if you could, something that has a set of criteria or process by which we can test whatever arbitrary thing we want to test it on so we can see how accurate this method is.

Waiting EVER So patiently.... O.O
 
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xianghua

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I have read many accounts of sightings of UFOs. Except for faked photographs and mis-identifications of aircraft, balloons, rockets and other human-made flying machines, none of them have provided me with convincing evidence of design.
i talking about real ufo. according to the criteria above we cant conclude de sign since we never seen someone who create a ufo.
 
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Bugeyedcreepy

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so we can claim that another lineage evolved into a mammal from other snimals. what is the problem?
well, no, because it would have to have hair, hammer & anvil middle ear bones, be the ancestor of mammal like synapsids, etc. - all of which didn't exist in the precambrian.
i talking about real ufo. according to the criteria above we cant conclude de sign since we never seen someone who create a ufo.
You could be right. In some cases, radar operators in the 60's or 70's (?) who saw UFO's on their scopes had their UFO claims actually investigated, these UFO's ended up being identified as flocks of geese... naturally occurring geese!
 
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xianghua

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well, no, because it would have to have hair, hammer & anvil middle ear bones, be the ancestor of mammal like synapsids, etc. - all of which didn't exist in the precambrian.

so what? we can claim that this creature evolved from other creature that leaved no fossils. after all: about 99.9 of the species that ever lived on earth dont appear in the fossil record.
 
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Bugeyedcreepy

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so what? we can claim that this creature evolved from other creature that leaved no fossils. after all: about 99.9 of the species that ever lived on earth dont appear in the fossil record.
Because it would be horrendously out of place in the geological record, because land animals weren't even a thing yet, let alone one that resembles a mammal. We don't really have any substantial life form that doesn't have a well-established place, comprehensively sorted in the phylogenetic Tree of Life.

I tell you what, Find such an example and let's see what happens. Either you won't find one (reality) or you'll find one (fantasy).
 
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