Yesterday at 11:16 PM David Gould said this in Post #5
Yes, there is potential for negative outcomes.
Please note that I am talking about negative outcomes worldwide where it concerns security for democratic societies, and where it concerns Iraq directly. Ironically, I think the negative outcome in Iraq (in the short term) will be somewhat
less negative than the current regime. Until the fruits of pursuing the policy you seem to advocate significantly alter the world's balance of power and the legitimacy of national sovereignty, we have a short term outcome in Iraq that may resemble the lesser human rights abuses of Saudi Arabia and or the former Taliban more than the abuses of the Ba'ath party's regime.
But by what alternative would you prevent Saddam Hussein from ordering the torture, rape and murder of hundreds, if not thousands, of his own citizens over the next 5 years?
No simple answer. I believe that we must first legitimatize diplomatic means, by scrapping our current foreign HR policies and replacing them with a cogent and
consistently applied human rights diplomacy. When we have shown that human rights are what we really care about, we can expect to see the results in the rest of the world, and we should be able to bring more nations on board with an enlightened HR policy. With the power of the world community working together, and with the moral authority derived from our new, cogent, and consistent policies on human rights, diplomatic efforts that failed before may gain a new life and become successful. When those who violate human rights find themselves marginalized pariahs of the world community, pressure from the inside and outside will have much more force. Threats of military action against a particularly egregious regime will no longer be a policy that (if pursued) so destabilizing as now. The friends of human rights on the inside of these regimes will know that they have real friends on the outside and will be able to apply a real pressure to their leaders.
My reasoning is that if Saddam Hussein is no longer in power he will not be able to do things like that. Any alternative ruler is likely to be more benevolent that Hussein, given how bad that guy is.
The only way I can see of removing Saddam Hussein is by force. Sanctions have not worked. An armed uprising by Kurdish and or Shi'ite forces may work, but it is still a resort to the barrel of a gun and less likely of success than an invasion and more likely to result bad results, imo.
I agree in general with your assessment here.
I agree that we have to stop supporting human rights abusers and abuses.
But that does not help the man who is going to be dragged out of his bed in four months time, taken to a prison, tortured for a month and then shot in the back of the head.
It does if it is "our *******" that is doing it (in Saudi Arabia or Chile, for instance)... Or if it torture and execution that we wash our hands of (in China, for instance). It does help that man. And in the future, it has the potential to create a situation where we are in a position to help the man to whom this is done in Iraq.
Yes, the US invasion might mean he gets shot in the back of the head next week instead of in four months time. But at least his family will have the opportunity of living in an Iraq where such things no longer happen.
Unlikely... Perhaps an Iraq where such things happen less often, and to different religious, ethnic, or political factions. But It is very unlikely that human rights abuses will end there after our invasion.
On the other hand, our invasion will rob us of much of our political capital in the international community, and destroy our credibility for human rights diplomacy. It will make the world too dangerous for us to consider military invasions or even military support for rebellions in the most egregious regimes.
I know that the motives for the US going to war have nothing to do with human rights. But the war will solve those problems for Iraq, I believe.
If I thought that the war would really solve those problems for Iraq
long term, without creating greater problems for human rights world-wide, I would reluctantly agree with you.
