The Flu Vanished During Covid. What Will Its Return Look Like?

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renniks

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That's all very well, but the claim was that known flu cases are being falsely reported by medical authorities as Covid.
I never said it was intentional. But given all the reports of false positives for covid, and how inaccurate the testing has been, it seems inevitable.
Patient comes in with flu-like symptoms...tests positive for the big C, patient never knows he actually had the flu.
 
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Halbhh

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The flu “disappeared” because the cases were reported as Covid.
Actually what happened:

Flu Season Never Came to the Southern Hemisphere
Mask wearing and social distancing for COVID-19 may have cut influenza cases south of the equator
Flu Season Never Came to the Southern Hemisphere

It was very greatly reduced from the normal level because the same things that people did to try to reduce Covid spread -- staying home more, sanitizing surfaces, mask wearing -- all actually combat flu spread pretty well!
 
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Hammster

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Actually what happened:

Flu Season Never Came to the Southern Hemisphere
Mask wearing and social distancing for COVID-19 may have cut influenza cases south of the equator
Flu Season Never Came to the Southern Hemisphere

It was very greatly reduced from the normal level because the same things that people did to try to reduce Covid spread -- staying home more, sanitizing surfaces, mask wearing -- all actually combat flu spread pretty well!
Ah. Masks work on the flu, but are pretty anemic on Covid.
 
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Halbhh

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Ah. Masks work on the flu, but are pretty anemic on Covid.
Covid being very contagious, the only way typical consumer masks would work is if everyone wore them consistently in the recommended situations, instead of only 60% or 70% of people. Because having 30% without masks is plenty to allow the contagious virus to spread significantly.

Have you seen what is happening to India right now? It's really something.
I'll post a graph next below.
 
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Halbhh

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India Covid spread lately:

images

A journalist in India live-tweeted his worsening COVID-19 symptoms, then died before he could get help
 
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Halbhh

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Ah. Masks work on the flu, but are pretty anemic on Covid.
Here's what it looks like, right now, to have a more contagious variant (such as the U.K. variant that is now widespread in the U.S.), but *without* much mask wearing or much vaccination!

What we'd look like in the U.S. without masks or vaccines, right now:

Covid exploding upward in India exponentially
includes brief article excerpts and also an on-scene video around hospitals in India
 
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Tanj

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Hammster

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Tinker Grey

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I don't think we in the USA should be too smug about this. As I recall, we hit a peak of more than 400,000 cases in a day. Yes, we should be concerned about the trend in India, but on a per population basis, they'd have to hit 1.6 million to hit the USA's peak per capita case rate. At present, they're at about 1/5 of that. (I believe my numbers are conservative.)
 
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Halbhh

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I don't think we in the USA should be too smug about this. As I recall, we hit a peak of more than 400,000 cases in a day. Yes, we should be concerned about the trend in India, but on a per population basis, they'd have to hit 1.6 million to hit the USA's peak per capita case rate. At present, they're at about 1/5 of that. (I believe my numbers are conservative.)
Our daily new case peak was fairly close to today's number from India actually, but we were topping out, and they don't look to be yet. While it's still a bit early to be sure, it looks like our outbreak of the U.K. variant in Michigan is starting to respond to people being more cautious. But definitely right we shouldn't be overconfident. If a large portion remain unvaccinated, it's going to be a summer with plenty of suffering even if they don't get up to the surge level peaks from earlier.
 
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If you believe that the flu really vanished, I have a some ocean front property in Arizona for you. More like everyone with the flu was counted as having covid.
In India more than 300,000 got COVID in one day. The hospitals are full. Some do not have enough oxygen. People are dying in hospital parking lots. It is not the flu, but a much worse respiratory illness.
 
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2BeholdHisGlory

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I can post what I think is the truth.

I don't see how it couldnt be possible to have the seasonal flu itself but also have an asymptomatic positive test for COVID, but die from the flu (and not from COVID) but WITH COVID.

I mean someone could probably die from alcohol poisoning but also have an asymptomatic positive test for COVID but be recorded as having died from COVID.
 
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renniks

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In India more than 300,000 got COVID in one day. The hospitals are full. Some do not have enough oxygen. People are dying in hospital parking lots. It is not the flu, but a much worse respiratory illness.
I didn't say covid was the flu. Not sure where you got that.
 
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RDKirk

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I am on record as a huge defender of standard public health edicts - masks, distancing, vaccines.

But I do wonder if masking as a long-term strategy might backfire - is it not the case that our immune systems need to be exposed to some nasties in order to remain in fighting trim?

The immune system needs no "training" against microbiological pathogens (although there appears to be some benefit to "training" against allergens).

The immune system does need, however, proper care in nutrition.
 
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RDKirk

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The Flu Vanished During Covid. What Will Its Return Look Like?


This makes sense, our immune systems have some experience with influenza and steps like social distancing and masking further mitigate the spread. In contrast, coronavirus is new to our bodies, so it spreads far more easily.

I wonder if it might be beneficial to treat flu season as a masking season, that would likely put a tremendous dent in the yearly flu season.

Covid-19 is more infectious than any strain of flu. So all physical protections against covid-19--masking, social distancing, physical cleansing, avoiding crowds--that are at all effective against Covid-19 will be even more effective against the flu.

That's all.
 
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Oompa Loompa

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The Flu Vanished During Covid. What Will Its Return Look Like?


This makes sense, our immune systems have some experience with influenza and steps like social distancing and masking further mitigate the spread. In contrast, coronavirus is new to our bodies, so it spreads far more easily.

I wonder if it might be beneficial to treat flu season as a masking season, that would likely put a tremendous dent in the yearly flu season.
So why do we not see the same trend for covid19?
 
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So why do we not see the same trend for covid19?
Covid 19 is almost 3 times as contagious as the flu having an R number of 3 compared to an R number of 1.3 for normal flu. The Spanish flu had for example an R number of 1.8. The R number is about how many people are likely to catch the desease from one infected person, if no anti infection measures are in place.
Is Covid more deadly and contagious than seasonal flu? | David Spiegelhalter and Anthony Masters
 
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