7. THE LEGALITIES OF UNILATERAL MILITARY ACTION
The US believes that Iraq is in violation of its ceasefire agreements, and is now vulnerable to the same military attack authorized in 1990.
Internal US law
On 3 Feb 1998, Clinton officials, preparing for what was to become Desert Fox, said the authority from military action was drawn from the joint resolution passed by Congress on the eve of the Gulf War. This resolution, named PL102-1, has no expiry date. It was argued that, as far as the Congress is concerned, this provides US administration with the authority to use force against Iraq.
United Nations law
The US also argues that any future attack on Iraq will be legal under international law, under the following UN Resolutions:
· Resolution 678 (29 Nov 1990) authorizing military action after the invasion of Kuwait
· Resolution 687 (3 Apr 1991) making a ceasefire dependent on a number of conditions, including the dismantling of weapons of mass destruction.
The US's interpretation is, however, opposed by every member of the UN Security Council with the exception of the UK.
8. EVENTS IN THE CURRENT CRISIS
3 Mar 1991 Ceasefire agreed on Persian Gulf War, or Operation Desert Storm. Coalition forces sign the Safwan accords.
3 Apr 1991 UN passes Resolution 687, ordering the destruction of Iraq's weapons of mass destruction
15 Aug 1991 UN passes Resolution 715, the first "resolution-to-enforce-the-resolution", ordering Iraq to facilitate "unfettered access" to weapons inspectors.
11 Oct 1991 UN passes Resolution 715, setting up a long-term monitoring programme.
17 Jun 1993 UN says Iraq is in "material breach" of its obligations.
20 Mar 1996 UNSCOM reports Iraqi resistance, violating the "unfettered access" agreement.
12 Jun 1996 UN passes Resolution 1060, demanding Iraqi co-operation. It was not forthcoming.
21 Jun 1996 UN passes Resolution 1115, threatening Iraqi officials with travel restrictions if they do not comply.
28 Sep 1997 Iraq bans UNCOM from investigating biological weapon site as the suspected building was in a "presidential site" which was immune from inspections.
23 Oct 1997 After more than a year of Iraqi interference, the UN suspends sanctions reviews until April 98.
29 Oct 1997 Iraq bans Americans in UNSCOM from making any inspections, giving US personnel a week to leave. "In other words, " Mr Butler recalled later, "Iraq now claimed the right to approve or disapprove of members of the UNSCOM team"
2 Nov 1997 A UNSCOM aircraft lands at Habbaniyah airfied with two American inspectors - defying the Iraqi stipulation. They are, however, forbidden from leaving the aircraft.
12 Nov 1997 UN Security Council passes Resolution 1137, condemning Iraq's attempt to ban Americans from UNSCOM. It imposes travel restrictions. This punishment did not affect Iraqi resolve.
13 Nov 1997 Iraq expels Americans working for UNSCOM
15 Nov 1997 UNSCOM pulls out of Iraq in protest at its expulsion of the Americans. It will prove to be the first of three evacuations under Butler. US House of Representatives passes motion backing unilateral US military action against Iraq, but only as a last resort.
14 Feb 1998 Robin Cook, then UK Foreign Secretary, first uses the phrase "doing nothing is not an option" with Iraq. This was to become UK government's position until August 2002.
23 Feb 1998: Kofi Annan agrees to back down, and offers a compromise. Weapons inspectors back in, but agree restricted access to eight "Presidential sites" in Iraq - seen to be areas of privacy for Saddam. Scott Ritter, UNSCOM's then chief weapons inspector, later compares this to the appeasement of Hitler: "The deal was a sham, and UNSCOM knew it
we gave serious thought
of attending [Annan's] welcome back party holding black umbrellas as a reminder of Neville
Chamberlain's return from Munich in 1938."
2 Mar 1998 UN Security Council seeks to bolster compromise by passing a unanimous resolution (1154) saying that Iraq's failure to comply with UN sanctions will have the "most severe consequences"
Runup to Operation Desert Fox
06 July 1998 Iraq seizes from UNSCOM documents suggesting it may have 6,000 more bombs left over from its war with Iran than it had admitted to.
5 Aug 1998 Aziz tells UN Security Council that it has decided to suspend UNSCOM's disarmament work and has banned it from inspecting new facilities. His letter says UNSCOM was "needlessly focused on details of no value" and has "attempted to conjure up crises and provocations which characterised the work of UNSCOM through the last seven years"
14 Aug 1998 US Senate passes a motion declaring Iraq to be in "material breach" of its obligations.
26 Aug 1998 Scott Ritter resigns as UNSCOM chief inspector, saying the UN's attempt to find a "diplomatic" means of dealing with Saddam represented "a surrender to the Iraqi leadership which has succeeded in thwarting the stated will of the United Nations." He later accuses Richard Butler, UNSCOM chairman, of bowing to the will of the US.
09 Sep 1998 UN Security Council unanimously passes Resolution 1194, suspending sanctions reviews.
31 Oct 1998 Iraq bans all remaining UNSCOM activities
05 Nov 1998 UN adopts Resolution 1205, saying Iraq's refusal to co-operate with UNSCOM represents a "flagrant violation" of its obligations. But it was by no means threatening, affirming its "readiness to consider, in a comprehensive review, Iraq's compliance with its obligations under all relevant resolutions" if it starts to play ball again. This was seen as a carrot, not a stick. "Notably absent
absent from this was any threat to use force", said Butler later
10 Nov 1998 US tells UNSCOM that it is evacuating its embassy staff in Middle East, and advised Butler to consider evacuating.
11 Nov 1998 UNSCOM evacuate.
13 Nov 1998 US and British military start to head for the Gulf.
14 Nov 1998 Clinton delays his planned strikes on Iraq by 24 hours, in hope of last minute deal.
14/15 Nov 98 A deal is delivered, as Iraq agrees to rescind its ban on UNSCOM activities. Diffuses crisis.
4 Dec 1998 Iraq prevents UNSCOM 261, a biological team, from carrying out its very first inspection.
5 Dec 1998 UNSCOM chemical weapons inspectors are banned by Iraqi officials from taking photographs - a violation of the agreement.
9 Dec 1998 Iraq stops UNSCOM 258's inspection of a building connected to the Ba'ath party.
15 Dec 1998 Aziz complains to UN that UNSCOM is carrying out its duty "in an intrusive and provocative manner."
16 Dec 1998 Operation Desert Fox begins. US and UK launch 415 cruise missiles and 200 bombs at 50 Iraqi locations. It was, however, regarded as a flop Only ten targets were destroyed and 18 severely damaged. US says it killed 1,400 Iraqi troops. Baghdad says 62.
20 Dec 1998 End of Desert Fox, a 72-hour operation. Clinton says more strikes may follow.
17 Dec 1999 UN establishes UNMOVIC.
03 Jan 1999 Saddam declares no-fly zones as "illegal" and says his people will resist them with "bravery and courage". Offers $15,000 bounty to any unit that succeeds in downing an Allied jet.
26 Mar 2001 Iraq complains to UN that allied air strikes have killed 315 and wounded 965 Iraqi civilians.
16 Feb 2001 February 2001 air strikes. US and UK fighters bomb five Iraqi defense installments. The raid is reported to have had seen limited success.
24 July 2001 Iraqis fire a missile at U2 aircraft; defense sources say it came close to hitting it.
31 July 2001 US defense department reports Iraq's "considerably more aggressive stance in trying to bring down allied aircraft."
27 Aug 2001 Iraqi downs its first US aircraft - an unmanned USAF RQ1B Predator, or "drone"
11 Sep 2001 A second US "drone" is lost over Iraq.
September 11 attacks. Iraq only Arab country not to send formal condolences to US.
29 Jan 2002 In his state of the union address, George Bush identifies Iraq along with Iran and North Korea as forming an "axis of evil".
01 Jun 2002: President Bush, in a speech to graduating West Point cadets, says the US will "confront regimes that sponsor terror" and that they must "confront the worst threats before they emerge." This is seen as introducing a doctrine of pre-emption.
06 Jun 2002: Dick Cheney, US vice president, develops the pre-emption theme in a speech saying that Saddam is a dictator who is pursuing "deadly capabilities" and such a regime "must never be allowed to threat America with weapons of mass destruction."
17 Jun 2002 The Washington Post reports that President Bush has signed an order directing the CIA to overthrow Saddam using covert operations. This is not disputed by the White House.
05 Jul 2002: A round of weapons inspectors talks end in Vienna, with no conclusion.
12 Sep 2002: Bush addresses United Nations, and says that "If Saddam wishes peace," he will agree to five demands - not just the readmission of weapons inspectors. These are:-
§ Release or account for all Gulf War personnel whose fate is still unknown
§ End all illicit trade outside the oil-for-food program
§ Cease persecution of its civilian population
§ Immediately end all support for terrorism and act to suppress it
§ Immediately and unconditionally forswear, disclose, and remove or destroy all
weapons of mass destruction, long-range missiles, and all related material
16 Sep 2002: Saddam makes a midnight offer to re-admit weapons inspectors, without conditions. It is dismissed by the US and UK as a trick.
17 Sep 2002: The White House releases its dossier on Iraq, entitled "A decade of deception and defiance."
27 Sep 2002: Tony Blair releases the British government's dossier, entitled: "Iraq's Weapons of Mass Destruction." Tells House of Commons his aim is "disarmament" - contrasting from the "regime change" demanded in the US.