So if the economy is so great.......

[hislegacy]

How incredibly false. Not the topic of the thread but the falsehood just can't be left unresponded to.

The U.S. housing finance system is worse off today than it was on the cusp of the 2008 financial crisis, Republican lawmakers and Trump administration officials warned on Tuesday.

We spent $190 billion of taxpayer money, and we’re in worse shape,” he said, referring to the bailout of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which were seized by Treasury a decade ago to stave off catastrophic losses in the crisis.

The hearing kicked off what promises to be a highly contentious debate over the plans released last week by the Departments of Treasury and Housing and Urban Development to scale back the federal government’s massive role in the mortgage market. Republicans are focusing on what they say are growing risks in the system, while Democrats are mostly concerned about providing affordable housing.

This is what I was saying did not get fixed during the previous administration - not the GDP -

Please stay on topic

 

[FreeinChrist]

To sum it up, Obama left the economy in great shape for Trump in 2017.

Now, thanks in part to the trade war with China, to weakening Dodd - Frank by the Republicans, and to the tax break for the rich, the following:

- corporate debt is higher than ever with about $3 trillion being rated as debt just about junk status.
- credit card debt is higher than in 2008
- student debt is immense
- Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are hugely over leveraged
- jobs numbers were less than expected in August
- corporate profits are decreasing


see Here's a list of recession signals that are flashing red

Earnings growth estimates have come down drastically this year. Last December, analysts estimated S&P 500 earnings growth for the year would be around 7.6%, according to FactSet. That number is now around 2.3%.

Goldman Sachs and Citigroup strategists last month reduced 2019 and 2020 earnings estimates for the S&P 500, citing a sluggish economy, trade war threats and potential currency devaluations.​

 

[FreeinChrist]

This is what I was saying did not get fixed during the previous administration - not the GDP -

Please stay on topic

Trump is in his 3rd year in office. At some point, he needs to take some responsibilty, which he will not do unless it looks good.

The House was in Republican hands from 2011 through 2018. What did they do to fix Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae in that time? The Dodd- Frank bill, passed by a Democratic House and Senate, helped to prevent problems like this a great deal....but who is resisting the reforms? Republicans.
Since laws related to finances have to come from the House - what did they do?

Please stay on topic

Please do!!

 

[FreeinChrist]

so from the OP:

Trashing Fed 'Boneheads,' Trump calls for central bank to cut interest rates to 'ZERO'

President Donald Trump on Wednesday called on the Federal Reserve to slash U.S. interest rates “down to ZERO,” admonishing chairman Jerome Powell and other leaders of the U.S. central bank as “Boneheads.”

“The Federal Reserve should get our interest rates down to ZERO, or less, and we should then start to refinance our debt,” Trump tweeted. “INTEREST COST COULD BE BROUGHT WAY DOWN, while at the same time substantially lengthening the term. We have the great currency, power, and balance sheet.”​

side note - does he really not know that the US cannot refinance its debt? Doesn't he know it is in Treasury notes and bonds? I wonder if he realizes the US cannot go bankrupt and refinance its debt like Trump did with his businesses.​

 

[ananda]

View attachment 263016

If the numbers for those classified as "not in the labor force" (those who gave up looking for work) is added to those officially counted as "unemployed", the unemployment rate would be much, much higher, over 20%:

On a related note, if inflation was calculated the way it was previously (using the formula before 1980), it would be about 10%:

 

[FreeinChrist]

Yeah. I saw a graph about how the wages for the majority of folks, not the 1%, was at a level just below 2007. The middle class has gone nowhere.

 

[Cimorene]

Besides the high corporate bond debt, student debt, individual credit card debt....


This could 'end very badly': Trump officials warn on mortgage finance

The U.S. housing finance system is worse off today than it was on the cusp of the 2008 financial crisis, Republican lawmakers and Trump administration officials warned on Tuesday.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the two government-controlled enterprises that stand behind half the country's mortgages, are way too undercapitalized, and lending standards have actually deteriorated since the housing crash, the officials said.


“This whole thing is a car wreck. It’s a dumpster fire,” Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.) said at a Senate Banking Committee hearing on the White House’s proposal to overhaul the way the nation finances mortgages.

“We spent $190 billion of taxpayer money, and we’re in worse shape,” he said, referring to the bailout of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which were seized by Treasury a decade ago to stave off catastrophic losses in the crisis.

The hearing kicked off what promises to be a highly contentious debate over the plans released last week by the Departments of Treasury and Housing and Urban Development to scale back the federal government’s massive role in the mortgage market. Republicans are focusing on what they say are growing risks in the system, while Democrats are mostly concerned about providing affordable housing.

​

And if the economy is so great, why is Trump belligerently calling for zero interest rates? Is the economy is doing fine, there is not need to lower interest rates. Doesn't he know that lowering the rates when the economy is good exhausts the Fed's ability to deal with a recession when it comes?

Trashing Fed 'Boneheads,' Trump calls for central bank to cut interest rates to 'ZERO'

President Donald Trump on Wednesday called on the Federal Reserve to slash U.S. interest rates “down to ZERO,” admonishing chairman Jerome Powell and other leaders of the U.S. central bank as “Boneheads.”

“The Federal Reserve should get our interest rates down to ZERO, or less, and we should then start to refinance our debt,” Trump tweeted. “INTEREST COST COULD BE BROUGHT WAY DOWN, while at the same time substantially lengthening the term. We have the great currency, power, and balance sheet.”

​

side note - does he really not know that the US cannot refinance its debt? Doesn't he know it is in Treasury notes and bonds? I wonder if he realizes the US cannot go bankrupt and refinance its debt like Trump did with his businesses.

Wage stagnation should be on the list bc yeah unemployment is down but more Americans are having to work multiple jobs just to be able to survive! Friends who live in the US have said that jobs they applied for that used to pretty much be considered just for teens & college students now have legit adults w families working them bc they need that income to survive. It's 2nd & 3rd jobs for a lot of the adults.

 

[DaisyDay]

What are the other indicators of the economy that show “it’s not so great”

Job growth up
Wages up a consistent 3%
Unemployment at its lowest in decades
Lower taxes for the middle class
Consumer confidence up

Several million off food stamps
Record numbers reentering the workforce.

The inverted yield curve which predicts a recession:

 

[Ricky M]

How incredibly false. Not the topic of the thread but the falsehood just can't be left unresponded to.

View attachment 263014


View attachment 263015


View attachment 263016


And before someone wants to post about 2009 as if it was Obama's fault - that would be a lie.

The last six years of of Obama's term, the Republicans had the house. They obstructed. It would have been even better.


A big part of the recovery was due to the stimulus, which Republicans, resisted, and to the Dodd-Frank bill. Republicans keep trying to repeal that.
Dodd–Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act - Wikipedia

On March 14, 2018, the Senate passed the Economic Growth, Regulatory Relief and Consumer Protection Act exempting dozens of U.S. banks from the Dodd–Frank Act's banking regulations.[35] On May 22, 2018, the law passed in the House of Representatives.[36] On May 24, 2018, President Trump signed the partial repeal into law.[37]​

So now there is talk of minus interest mortgages like in some countries like Japan. There is the incredibly leveraged Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
The tax cut for the rich resulted in companies buying back their own stock, propping up their own companies as if they were doing better than they are, and leading to HUGE corporate debt, and a record $3 trillion of that debt is rated just above junk status. There is $3.5 trillion in corporate debt coming due in the next 3 years.

And the manufacturing?

US manufacturing activity dives to more than 9-year low on trade war worries, survey shows

U.S. manufacturer growth hit a multiyear low in May, the latest sign that the trade war may be slowing the economy.

The U.S. manufacturing PMI (purchasing managers index) was 50.6 in May, the lowest level since September 2009, according to results from financial data firm IHS Markit released Thursday.
​

And in August:
US factory activity unexpectedly slowed last month for the first time in 3 years — and Trump's trade war was the main culprit | Markets Insider

US manufacturing activity dipped in August for the first time in three years as domestic manufacturers continued to grapple with the fallout from the US-China trade war.

The Institute for Supply Management said on Tuesday that its closely watched purchasing managers index slid to 49.1 in August, a level lower than any analysts expected, according to Bloomberg. A reading below 50 typically indicates that growth in the manufacturing sector is weakening.
​

That is on Trump's watch, not Obama. So let's stick to the topic in the OP which is about now, not the last administration who left a growing economy for Trump.

Thank you for saying what I was going to say - and saying it better than I ever could!

 

[Ricky M]

Wage stagnation should be on the list bc yeah unemployment is down but more Americans are having to work multiple jobs just to be able to survive! Friends who live in the US have said that jobs they applied for that used to pretty much be considered just for teens & college students now have legit adults w families working them bc they need that income to survive. It's 2nd & 3rd jobs for a lot of the adults.

Wage stagnation started when Reagan codified income inequality. NO, you can't give one dog 10 bones on the assumption he'll share them with 9 other dogs. It never has worked and never will.

 

[ananda]

Wage stagnation started when Reagan codified income inequality. NO, you can't give one dog* 10 bones on the assumption he'll share them with 9 other dogs. It never has worked and never will.

* the dog with 100 bones already

 

[KCfromNC]

Again, if the economy is so great, why is Donald cussing out Jeremy Powell on Twitter for not doing his bidding and lowering the rates to zero or lower?

Based on previous examples, it is likely due to Donald's pattern of trying to help the bottom line of his real estate holdings.

 

[KCfromNC]

To sum it up, Obama left the economy in great shape for Trump in 2017.

Now, thanks in part to the trade war with China, to weakening Dodd - Frank by the Republicans, and to the tax break for the rich, the following:

- corporate debt is higher than ever with about $3 trillion being rated as debt just about junk status.
- credit card debt is higher than in 2008
- student debt is immense
- Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are hugely over leveraged
- jobs numbers were less than expected in August
- corporate profits are decreasing

Plus really large downward revisions in jobs numbers ... suspiciously large, given the behavior of White House leadership w.r.t. facts and data in the past.

 

[hislegacy]

The House was in Republican hands from 2011 through 2018. What did they do to fix Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae in that time?

The House is in Democratic hand right now.

What are they doing about it?

 

[FreeinChrist]

The House is in Democratic hand right now.

What are they doing about it?

What can they do if the Senate won't vote on any bill? And part of that is because McConnell doesn't think Trump will sign any bill. When did the Republicans in the House and Senate try to compromise with Obama about the economy? They didn't want to.

The Republicans had the presidency, House and Senate for 2 years. They rolled back Dodd - Frank.


Trump wants the Fed to lower the interest because it will save him money. It isn't for the economy.

 

[iluvatar5150]

As a member of said "younger generations," I can assure you that government intervention in the loan market isn't what has priced me out. It's a combination of stagnant wages, student debt, and wealthy (often foreign, at least in my area) private buyers purchasing all the real estate to use as rental properties because rent is also insanely high.

And a big part of why higher education has gotten more expensive because government intervention has been reduced. Public universities get a much smaller percentage of their funding from the government these days, which means they need to raise money through other means - like increasing tuition.

Slightly off topic, but since it's being discussed...

I don't believe it's correct that tuition increases are a reaction to reduced government intervention/financial assistance. Tuition has been increasing by staggering rates since at least the early 90's, and i'm not aware of federal aid being reduced at that time. The increased rate of tuition increases started back in the late 70's and it is at least somewhat caused by the availability of federal aid.

Tuition increases are largely due to the inelastic demand for higher education, and federal assistance contributes to that higher demand. In the 4 years I went to college, back in the early 90's, I saw tuition go from ~$16K my freshman year to ~$21K my senior year. Tuition for that school is now well over $50K and continuing to increase well ahead of inflation.

There's also some argument that universities have higher administrative overhead both due to higher IT costs and to added staff who support various campus services and perks that didn't exist in previous generations. I haven't seen the actual numbers that quantify how big of an impact those represent, but I've heard people complain about them.

Again, if the economy is so great, why is Donald cussing out Jeremy Powell on Twitter for not doing his bidding and lowering the rates to zero or lower?

The Federal Reserve should get our interest rates down to ZERO, or less, and we should then start to refinance our debt. INTEREST COST COULD BE BROUGHT WAY DOWN, while at the same time substantially lengthening the term. We have the great currency, power, and balance sheet.....
....The USA should always be paying the the lowest rate. No Inflation! It is only the naïveté of Jay Powell and the Federal Reserve that doesn’t allow us to do what other countries are already doing. A once in a lifetime opportunity that we are missing because of “Boneheads.”
​

No inflation means no growth. The Wharton graduate should be aware of that.

And low interest rates + no inflation is even worse.

 

[FreeinChrist]

There's also some argument that universities have higher administrative overhead both due to higher IT costs and to added staff who support various campus services and perks that didn't exist in previous generations. I haven't seen the actual numbers that quantify how big of an impact those represent, but I've heard people complain about them.




And low interest rates + no inflation is even worse.

IT services cost a great deal. All the technical stuff costs a lot.

Back when I went to college, we didn't have that. I had to use a slide rule until a Texas Instrument calculator came out after I graduated (at $110). No internet.
I can imagine what else costs a great deal.
in memorial:

$110 - and we thought it was GREAT!!!

 

[FreeinChrist]

Based on previous examples, it is likely due to Donald's pattern of trying to help the bottom line of his real estate holdings.

He wants the zero interest for a reason.

Trump Demands Fed Drop Rates To Zero. That Would Save Him $8 Million A Year.

President Donald Trump on Wednesday again attacked the Federal Reserve Board and demanded members drop interest rates “to ZERO, or less” ― a move that would benefit him personally by some $8 million a year.

Trump has approximately $340 million in variable-rate loans from Deutsche Bank financing several of his properties, with the amount of interest he must pay annually tied either directly to the benchmark set by the Fed or to a rate that in turn rises and falls with the Fed rate.
​

 

[iluvatar5150]

IT services cost a great deal. All the technical stuff costs a lot.

Sure, but at the same time, costs for an equivalent level of service are a small fraction of what they used to be. $10k today can get you a server with a much greater level of functionality and lower ongoing electrical and maintenance costs than a $1m+ refrigerator-sized machine would've given you in the 1980's.

What I don't know is how those sorts of expenditures today compare to those of the past.

 

[RocksInMyHead]

Back when I went to college, we didn't have that. I had to use a slide rule until a Texas Instrument calculator came out after I graduated (at $110). No internet.
I can imagine what else costs a great deal.
in memorial:

Off-topic, but I have an SR-10 (and a TI-30) sitting next to me right now. Sadly, they don't work anymore.