risk of death from Covid

[mama2one]

after listening to stats for our state yesterday, I calculated the risk of death living in my state & not being in a long term care facility

came up with .00005

stopped going to drug store & grocery store early on
however, after that calculation, going out today!

has anyone else done the calculation for where you live?

 

[nonaeroterraqueous]

I figured out that even if my church met with no distancing or masks, any given service had a 0.3% chance of someone walking through the door with it, assuming local infection rates and that no one who had it would stay home.

 

[SeekingGloryOnThisJourney]

after listening to stats for our state yesterday, I calculated the risk of death living in my state & not being in a long term care facility

came up with .00005

stopped going to drug store & grocery store early on
however, after that calculation, going out today!

has anyone else done the calculation for where you live?

Wish I could say the same. My city has hit one of the worst in the state.
Please keep my city in your Prayers.
And that is wonderful the hear, I pray that it’ll be gone completely in your area!

 

[sfs]

I figured out that even if my church met with no distancing or masks, any given service had a 0.3% chance of someone walking through the door with it, assuming local infection rates and that no one who had it would stay home.

Are you going by the number of confirmed cases? In most places the number of infected people has been about ten times the number of confirmed cases.

 

[Hazelelponi]

I figured out that even if my church met with no distancing or masks, any given service had a 0.3% chance of someone walking through the door with it, assuming local infection rates and that no one who had it would stay home.

How did you calculate that?

We have 18 cases in my entire county, zero hospitalizations, zero deaths, all in quarantine.

In my town we have 9 or 10 main churches, but 16 of the 18 cases are from the mission school and the mission has its own church, one case is in a different town than I'm in and 1 case is in town.

With 9 or 10 churches being main churches (although more smaller churches) and 1 case in the wild, how would you calculate the risk factor?

 

[Basil the Great]

after listening to stats for our state yesterday, I calculated the risk of death living in my state & not being in a long term care facility

came up with .00005

stopped going to drug store & grocery store early on
however, after that calculation, going out today!

has anyone else done the calculation for where you live?

Statistics can be misleading. The odds of having your home hit by a strong tornado that might kill you is small. However, one should still take precautions if the tornado siren goes off and/or a warning has been issued. Better to be safe than sorry and at least take some reasonable precautions against this virus outbreak.

 

[hedrick]

It’s hard to get this data. We can get confirmed infections per day but not currently infected, and actual is larger than confirmed. In NJ maybe 0.1 to 1% of people have it. So probability of exposure in church is pretty high, in services the way they were. But we don’t have good estimates of how much masks, no singing, and increased separation would help. They might well make it reasonably safe.

I might do the calculation differently. There are so many unknowns that you probably can’t do a real calculation the way I tried in the previous paragraph. What you can say is that until we did distancing, cases were growing rapidly. So it was spreading somehow. From all we know about how it spreads, church services the way they were were among the most dangerous venues, and ones that many people went into regularly.

This is for NJ. In regions where it doesn’t appear there are substantial cases it doesn’t apply. However there is one warning for those places. It’s now clear that spread had been going on since January. Everyone is saying in retrospect that doing distancing in NY earlier, before it appeared to be a threat, could have saved lots of lives. How many places where known cases are now low might be in that situation? I don’t think anyone knows. Personally I think if they are in a position to do aggressive tracing should cases start growing, it’s probably ok to be fairly open, though I’d still use masks.

 

[bèlla]

I stopped activity in February. Our numbers are increasing and we’re closing in on New Jersey’s cases. Despite being further down the list. We’re still closed.

I’ll venture out for a walk or cycling. But I don’t go to stores. I have everything delivered. I’m waiting to see how this plays out over the coming months.

~Bella

 

[Jonathan Walkerin]

after listening to stats for our state yesterday, I calculated the risk of death living in my state & not being in a long term care facility

came up with .00005

stopped going to drug store & grocery store early on
however, after that calculation, going out today!

has anyone else done the calculation for where you live?

It is all relative. Around 36000 traffic deaths with motor vehicles in US 2019 with population of around 330 million that comes down to about 0,0001.

Not very likely but you still use seatbelt right ?

Also how many more deaths would there be without seatbelts or now Covid19 caution ?

 

[mama2one]

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[Hazelelponi]

It’s hard to get this data. We can get confirmed infections per day but not currently infected, and actual is larger than confirmed. In NJ maybe 0.1 to 1% of people have it. So probability of exposure in church is pretty high, in services the way they were. But we don’t have good estimates of how much masks, no singing, and increased separation would help. They might well make it reasonably safe.

I might do the calculation differently. There are so many unknowns that you probably can’t do a real calculation the way I tried in the previous paragraph. What you can say is that until we did distancing, cases were growing rapidly. So it was spreading somehow. From all we know about how it spreads, church services the way they were were among the most dangerous venues, and ones that many people went into regularly.

This is for NJ. In regions where it doesn’t appear there are substantial cases it doesn’t apply. However there is one warning for those places. It’s now clear that spread had been going on since January. Everyone is saying in retrospect that doing distancing in NY earlier, before it appeared to be a threat, could have saved lots of lives. How many places where known cases are now low might be in that situation? I don’t think anyone knows. Personally I think if they are in a position to do aggressive tracing should cases start growing, it’s probably ok to be fairly open, though I’d still use masks.

Yes but even estimated infection rates seems to vary a great deal. When they did a random sampling of random people going into the grocery stores in New York, the results showed a probable 22% infection rate in New York City a couple weeks ago, but in more rural areas New York state, the estimated rates were only 3.8%...

So population density appears to affect a lot when you look at probable cases... also, with New York City being so heavily infected, that may go a long way toward affecting even New York's rural areas that you may not see in other less heavily traveled locations.

My county has a few confirmed cases, mainly in an institutional setting with a lot of foreign residents, but the county just south of us has zero confirmed cases. I'd say this area as a whole, due to its remote nature as well as being largely inaccessible (no main highways through, you actually have to have the intention of coming here specifically, as you likely wouldn't just happen across it) would likely have a far lower estimated infection rate than even New York state..

So it will really depend on area, population density and more to factor in.

 

[hedrick]

It is all relative. Around 36000 traffic deaths with motor vehicles in US 2019 with population of around 330 million that comes down to about 0,0001.

Not very likely but you still use seatbelt right ?

Also how many more deaths would there be without seatbelts or now Covid19 caution ?

Yeah. I certainly never stopped going to the grocery store or pharmacy, and I'm in NJ. I did stop going to church, because at the time (before any changes due to the virus) there were no precautions, and it was pretty obviously dangerous for someone who is 70. I did continue to teach Sunday School until it was stopped. A few kids in a reasonable size room

 

[hedrick]

So it will really depend on area, population density and more to factor in.

That's what I said. I would, however, still take at least some precautions. That starts with public health authorities being prepared to pounce on cases if they should begin appearing. I'd still at least require masks in indoor venues with lots of people. That means church, among other things. As someone noted, we use seatbelts even though the probability of a serious accident is pretty small. We can live with having soloists provide the only music for a few months.

Churches have one more consideration: You can advise older people not to go to football games and other places that would tend to be dangerous. You really want older people to be able to go to church. So I think the church has an obligation to be more careful than other areas might be. Christians shouldn't be about trying to push their rights, but about what they can do to help other people.

 

[mama2one]

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[mama2one]

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[Hazelelponi]

That's what I said. I would, however, still take at least some precautions. That starts with public health authorities being prepared to pounce on cases if they should begin appearing. I'd still at least require masks in indoor venues with lots of people. That means church, among other things. As someone noted, we use seatbelts even though the probability of a serious accident is pretty small. We can live with having soloists provide the only music for a few months.

Churches have one more consideration: You can advise older people not to go to football games and other places that would tend to be dangerous. You really want older people to be able to go to church. So I think the church has an obligation to be more careful than other areas might be. Christians shouldn't be about trying to push their rights, but about what they can do to help other people.

Masks are mandated here and more. I don't think anyone thinks no precaution should be taken. (Hand washing, taking care of ones health, exercise, sunshine and more are all factors in a positive outcome)

 

[tturt]

CNN interviewed Dr. Megan Ranney. It sounds like there are more questions than answers.

 

[Palmfever]

In Hawaii with a population of 1.2 million we have had 17 deaths. Roughly a 1 in 83,000 chance of death due to covid.
On the other side of this coin...
science mag:
The COVID-19 pandemic is disrupting routine health services and food supplies in ways that could kill an additional 1.2 million children under age 5 and 57,000 mothers worldwide over the next 6 months, a study estimates. The toll for children would represent a 45% increase over the level expected during normal times. Mortality rates for COVID-19 itself appear to be low in children and in women of reproductive age, but the disruption caused by the pandemic is hampering the delivery of vaccines as well as treatments for infectious diseases and obstetrics care, the authors reported 12 May online in The Lancet Global Health. That could reverse a 50% decline since 2000 in death rates among children under 5. the lancet.com

The Fight against COVID-19 Threatens to Cause Collateral Health Damage
The need for chronic disease management and prevention does not disappear during a pandemic... Infusion centers where patients receive treatment for rheumatoid arthritis; radiology centers that perform mammograms to detect breast cancer; and offices that perform cardiac echocardiograms to diagnose heart diseases are closing. A federal waiver though Medicare that covers telehealth visits now allows patients with chronic conditions to receive medical care without traveling to a clinic. But this does not address the need for outpatient surgeries and procedures that often accompany medical management. Closure of outpatient facilities will lead to more emergency room visits as growing numbers of patients with unchecked symptoms require urgent care.

At the same time, isolation and joblessness have their own costs – among them, mental health, children’s welfare, and financial ruin. Unemployment stands at 14.7%, the highest rate since the Great Depression. The pandemic could lead to 75,000 additional “deaths of despair” resulting from drug or alcohol abuse and suicide, according to the Well Being Trust, a national wellness foundation. As all 50 states reopen, leaders weigh tough questions

If we haven't yet made the cure worse than the decease, we are well on the way.

In Christ

 

[cappycappy]

Nobody can say. Statistics are only overall.
Your risk of death depends on many things - your age, health, underlying medical conditions, whether you live with a healthcare worker, whether you have health insurance - any of these factors could change your risk of dying from 99% to 50%.

That is why I wear a mask to protect other people. Because I care about other people. If I am in a public place and I sneeze without a mask on and some elderly person caught the virus, and died, that would be my fault. Masks are not 100% protection but they certainly help.

I am lucky enough to have health insurance right now but others are not lucky enough to have that, and their chance of getting medical treatment if they catch covid is lower.

 

[nonaeroterraqueous]

Are you going by the number of confirmed cases? In most places the number of infected people has been about ten times the number of confirmed cases.

True, but it's the cases that get to the hospitals that are confirmed, and those are the ones I find significant. We could be discussing mortality rates, which are a much smaller number, or we could be talking total confirmed/unconfirmed cases, which make a much bigger number. I'm taking the middle of the two.

Twenty people in the church might get the sniffles, but I'm more interested in the ones who get slammed with something more. Take that rate, using fresh cases because they represent those that will need a hospital but aren't there, yet. Compare that number to the population of the county (cases per county divided by population), and multiply that by the church's average attendance. Yes, I know that a marginally sick person could walk through the door and cause someone to be worse than marginally sick, but I'm working with what I've got. It's a relative number, and that's the best I can do.

That would be contrasted with a certain large church in the San Diego area:
Rate: about 244 confirmed cases per day
Population: 3,300,000
Church attendance: 2,000
Relative risk: 14.8% (high risk)

Take a certain church in Orange County, California:
Rate: 100 confirmed per day
Population: 3,176,000
Church attendance: 45
Relative risk: 0.14% (very low)

I know the absolute statistics are sketchy, but it's a calculated risk. Chance has a funny way of doing the unlikely. This is all trivial to me, anyway, because I'd rather die from the virus than continue living like this.