RFK is Right about this...

[RoBo1988]

I'm glad to see someone (besides TV's Mike Rowe) speaking on this subject. Republican, Democrats, conservative and liberal; are mostly silent on the subject, probably because their palms are being greased somewhere down the line.

Our government is supposed to be "America First" yet I see very few examples of that in Washington DC

 

[Laodicean60]

He may not have articulated properly but he does have a point. America's industrial strength is not what it use to be during WW2. You have most of your core technologies being manufactured outside of your borders. On top of relying on resources from suppliers that themselves rely on more unsure sources (by this I mean unfriendly/hostile nations). In the event of a real war where would America get their supplies from? Unfriendly nations and companies control most of the low level productions required by American high level productions to work.

America might design microprocessors but who manufactures them? And who supplies the manufacturers with materials? And who controls the mines for the raw materials? Even if you solve the raw material and manufacturing problems today, how fast can you ramp up productions to even match your rivals? Given if you can read the future and know that a war is inevitable in 3-5 years, can you change the industrial output to match already standing manufacturing nations? Look at your ammunition production today, you can't even keep a steady pace to resupply Ukraine without running dangerously low yourself. While places like North Korea and China even Iran are pumping them out like the US prints money.

Some people just want to remain ignorant. We started financial WW3 through sanctions. Sanctions in Russia have hurt the whole world because they are a major commodity producer. We can see that Western countries have struggled to meet the demand for something as simple as Howitzer shells and it takes time to retool manufacturers to make them. I blame my government for being reactionary and not having foresight for potential problems. They are too busy with their tribal warfare.

Here is an interesting article for our National Defense that mentions the same thing you have.

The U.S. Defense Industrial Base: Past Strength, Current Challenges, and Needed Change

The U.S. Defense Industrial Base: Past Strength, Current Challenges, and Needed Change Maiya Clark The United States faces threats from its rivals and from rogue actors, and it maintains a military of land, sea, air, and space forces to counter those threats. This Index of U.S. Military Strength...

www.heritage.org

 

[Laodicean60]

Another issue that I glossed over, though, is the fact that "We the People" tended to go for what was the least expensive, rather than American made. There is plenty of blame to go around.

And thus we became a throwaway nation. Low quality production and cost allowed it. I can't find stats but I'm sure that our landfills have dramatically increased in size for the last 20 years because of this. If I was president I would make it mandatory to recycle EVs to recapture the rare earth materials in limited supply.

 

[comana]

Does any candidate that speaks to the importance of bringing manufacturing back have any sort of plan? Or is it just more campaign talking points for votes. It’s a very expensive proposition that requires the willingness of businesses Who are currently benefiting from global competition.

 

[Laodicean60]

Does any candidate that speaks to the importance of bringing manufacturing back have any sort of plan? Or is it just more campaign talking points for votes. It’s a very expensive proposition that requires the willingness of businesses Who are currently benefiting from global competition.

Trump and Biden had worked on our manufacturing but it took a slap on the face and the DoD to get our politicians to think about it. How many F-35 are out of commission due to parts? We are becoming unipolar again because of our hegemony desires, BRICS nations.
The cost of doing business is expensive in America and I blame corporations and our greed especially when we take advantage of child labor and the horrid conditions the Africans are in in mining operations.

 

[ThatRobGuy]

RFK is a moron. If you want to make an argument, don't start there.

If you want to make an argument, I would suggest that you don't refer to a lawyer with a degree from Harvard as a "moron", don't start there. (morons don't get to make the cut to go to Harvard and attain law degrees and graduate with honors...I have to have this conversation with people whenever they say "Ben Shapiro is stupid"...no he's not, he's actually a very intelligent guy, he just has a different opinion, and like anyone else, is impacted by their own biases)

Perhaps it would be better to say "he's a guy who's right about a lot of things, but has some serious blind spots on other issues".


If he's, as you say, a "moron", then we should probably all do the opposite of what he says. Since he's anti-war, and one of the most successful environmental lawyers of our time, that must mean that we should all be pro-war, and that environmental concerns are just silly and everyone should just dump their waste in rivers and drive Ford F250's.

And that must mean Obama was a moron for having RFK Jr. on his short list of people to head up the EPA during his administration, right?



Or is there a sliver of a chance that people are messy and complicated, and perhaps the evaluation criteria of "He no like vaccine, he stupid!" isn't exactly the most rigorous evaluation criteria we should be using?


We just got done being the laughing stock of the world by having a presidential debate between an egomaniac who lied no less than 2 dozen times, vs. a guy who was mumbling, rambling in a nonsensical fashion, and looking like a deer in the headlights. I don't know if anyone in either of the 2 major political parties is in a position to criticize RFK at this point.

 

[Gene2memE]

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2024/07/02/rfk_jr_biden_is_operating_under_the_delusion_that_the_us_can_dominate_the_world_without_an_industrial_base.html

A lot of US manufacturing, is assembly of imported components. If there's a war going on, that may be difficult, if not impossible.

He's really not. (He's also wildly wrong about the missile attack in Crimea and the relative balance of strategic nuclear forces, but those are different arguments).

In terms of defense critical industries, the US is increasingly moving towards self-sufficiency. Yes, the US is part of the very messy global supply chain. However, the US industrial base is currently expanding faster than it has at any point since the 1950s.

Yes, there are still weaknesses in the US manufacturing supply chain, specifically in relation to reliance on China and Taiwan. The most notable vulnerabilities are semiconductors, some strategic metals and rare-earth elements, automotive components, electric engines, civil aircraft parts and pharmaceuticals. Also consumer electronics/mobile phones.

The thing to note here is that US firms are furiously in-sourcing. And have really been doing so for more than a decade.

The trend started slowly around 2010/2011, when China started to throw its weight around on certain export categories. It got a double kick in the mid 2010s, first with the Russian invasion of Crimea and then from the impact of various Trump administration trade policies (both good and bad). It went into overdrive in 2020 thanks to the pandemic and the Biden administration pumping ~$100 billion into the sector - mostly through the CHIPS and IRA legislative packages.

Private fixed investment: Nonresidential: Structures: Manufacturing

Graph and download economic data for Private fixed investment: Nonresidential: Structures: Manufacturing (C307RC1Q027SBEA) from Q1 1958 to Q1 2025 about nonresidential, fixed, investment, private, manufacturing, GDP, and USA.

fred.stlouisfed.org

https://www.businessdefense.gov/docs/ndis/2023-NDIS.pdf

https://www.cato.org/testimony/made-america-boom-us-manufacturing-investment

US manufacturing outlook: Better times are coming

A growing belief in a soft landing and the potential for significant interest rate cuts could bring renewed vibrancy to the US manufacturing sector

think.ing.com

https://www.aei.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Preparing-Supply-Chains-for-a-Coming-War.pdf

RFK Jr is one of those politicians that propose simple sounding and appealing solutions to complex problems. Solutions which turn out to be either dead wrong or created in opposition to the actual facts of the matter.

He deserves to get called out on it much more often. Just like Donald "Nobody knew health care could be so complicated" Trump.

 

[DaisyDay]

America might design microprocessors but who manufactures them? And who supplies the manufacturers with materials?

Have you heard tell of Biden’s recently enacted Chip Act? It’s supposed to do what you are calling for.

Why put “RFK” in the very title of a thread if you don’t want RFK to be discussed? If you were to put what you actually want discussed in the title people are more likely to stick to that.

 

[Laodicean60]

Have you heard tell of Biden’s recently enacted Chip Act? It’s supposed to do what you are calling for.

Why put “RFK” in the very title of a thread if you don’t want RFK to be discussed? If you were to put what you actually want discussed in the title people are more likely to stick to that.

To Icejad defense I didn't read what he wrote as political. I agree with what he said about the problems we face in manufacturing. We can build as many plants as we want but we still need to supply raw materials. We gutted our mining operations and used China and Russia for raw materials for the last 30 years. We will depend heavily on Australia for rare earth if we can't normalize trade relations with China.
Also, we will need more energy natural gas, and petroleum unless we want to buy more oil from Russia.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-rareearths-projects-factbox-idUSKCN2241L6/

A lot of US manufacturing, is assembly of imported components. If there's a war going on, that may be difficult, if not impossible.

No one said that Trump or Biden did nothing for our manufacturing base, but I agree with RFK's view on America's hegemony and I believe the conflicts now are for that reason.

"You know, we had the industrial base in the 1930s and we could gear it up and produce material for the war. Hey, the Chinese own that base and we can't build anything in this country anymore. So the capacity, you know, we still are in the mindset that we dominate the globe. But, you know, it all depends on the industrial base. You cannot dominate the globe like we're pretending to do. Like President Biden thinks that he's doing. I think it's delusion. And I think we need a president who's actually looking at reality and is, you know, is trying to adjust our reality to the facts."

When my in-laws were laid off from Textile in El Paso I realized NAFTA wasn't good for the American workers and that bringing manufacturers back would create competition for workers thus wages would increase.

 

[RoBo1988]

Why put “RFK” in the very title of a thread if you don’t want RFK to be discussed? If you were to put what you actually want discussed in the title people are more likely to stick to that.

Because I don't necessarily agree with everything RFK says, but he is correct about this matter.

Others look at this and see "RFK!" and begin gnashing their teeth, seeing a opportunity to "pile on," to make their political savior look better than "that other guy ". Typical of the political threads.


Just because I won't vote for someone doesn't mean I don't think they have good things to say, or good ideas; Especially if what they are saying isn't piped into a teleprompter.

The CHIPS act is for computer chips; great. How about appliances, pharmaceuticals, etc etc. things made by hand? China, India, and Mexico, still make them and I know we still buy them, because Walmart is full of them.

The last I heard, the Columbus OH chip factory is on hold, don't know why.

 

[Laodicean60]

The last I heard, the Columbus OH chip factory is on hold, don't know why.

I also heard that Intel will adopt the latest chip-making technology that Taiwan decided not to recently. They learned from their mistake many years ago by allowing Taiwan to adopt the latest tech at that time.

Here is what I found:

Lack of Government Funding: Intel’s expansion plans depend heavily on funding from the CHIPS Act, which provides $52 billion in funding for semiconductor companies to promote chip manufacturing in the US. The delay in government funding has forced Intel to postpone its groundbreaking ceremony and construction plans.

Business Conditions and Market Dynamics: Intel has cited “business conditions and market dynamics” as a reason for the delay. This could be due to changes in the global demand for semiconductors, fluctuations in the chip market, or other economic factors.

Dependence on Government Grants: Intel’s revised timeline for its semiconductor plant still keeps it within the boundaries of the deadline set by the millions of dollars in incentives it received from Ohio. The company’s plans are tied to the availability of government grants, which has led to delays.

Infrastructure Development: The construction of the plant requires significant infrastructure development, including water and wastewater capacity upgrades, roadwork, and a water reclamation facility. The delay in infrastructure development has contributed to the overall delay in the project.
Intel’s Revised Timeline: Intel has given a more expansive estimate of three to five years from the launch of construction in late 2022, which indicates a delay in the project timeline.

 

[HantsUK]

America might design microprocessors but who manufactures them? And who supplies the manufacturers with materials? And who controls the mines for the raw materials? Even if you solve the raw material and manufacturing problems today, how fast can you ramp up productions to even match your rivals?

Really? The ARM architecture, used in most mobile phones, Apple computers, and much of the embedded market, is British technology. While Intel has a major design centre in Israel for processor design.

Intel’s expansion plans depend heavily on funding from the CHIPS Act,

Besides the USA, Intel is currently building or planning leading edge fabs in Ireland (half built and production already started), Germany, New Mexico, and Israel. Also major new assembly and test facilities in Penang & Kulim (both Malaysia), and Poland. Most with significant local government support.

Updates: Intel’s 10 Largest Construction Projects

As it widens its foundry aspirations, Intel’s projects help advance semiconductor manufacturing and technology leadership and build a globally resilient, secure and sustainable supply chain.

www.intel.com

All countries are dependent on raw materials, advanced components, or the latest manufacturing tools from other countries including non-friendly countries. Perhaps there is one exception - North Korea?

Increasingly there seem to be just two or three companies world wide in a lot of the most advanced technologies.

For example: Only 3 companies (TMSC, Samsung, Intel) can produce semiconductors at the smallest nodes. Only one company (AMSL, Dutch) can make the litho machines needed for those fabs. And AMSL is dependent on single sources.

I am not sure what to think about the current trade war between America and China. But it is a trade war. What I find wrong is that America is forcing non American companies not to supply their most advanced products to China. But American companies are still supplying to China. America is also forcing other countries to prohibit importing certain technology from China or particular Chinese companies. I guess we will never know how much this is due to actual national security issues.

At least the USA does have a manufacturing policy, unlike the UK.

 

[Laodicean60]

I am not sure what to think about the current trade war between America and China. But it is a trade war.

I don't like it because things will get expensive plus we are reliant on their raw materials. We use tariffs to benefit our own companies and sometimes use them to hurt the economies. Here is what we need from China
Rare Earth Elements: China is responsible for almost half of the global supply of rare earth elements, which are essential for the ICT sector and the green industry. This includes 99% of Heavy Rare Earths and 87% of Light Rare Earths.
Natural Graphite: China produces 69% of the world’s natural graphite, a key component for high-efficiency rechargeable batteries.
Tungsten: China produces 85% of the world’s tungsten, a critical metal with wide application in alloy, energy-efficient lighting, radiation shielding, and military uses.
Magnesia and Magnesium: China produces 69% of magnesia and 86% of magnesium, which are widely used in the refractory industry, hydrometallurgy, and waste water treatment.
Heavy Rare Earths and Light Rare Earths: China produces 99% of Heavy Rare Earths and 87% of Light Rare Earths, which are essential for various industries, including electronics, renewable energy, and national defense.

What I find wrong is that America is forcing non American companies not to supply their most advanced products to China. But American companies are still supplying to China.

Because we are hypocrites. Instead of all the shenanigans, we should just try to out-compete them. Build stuff that lasts not all this throw away stuff because it's bad for the environment. We turned China into a superpower now we are restricting access to semi-conductors to slow them down. How could we not see this coming, China will always be China first. I think this is why BRICS because other countries are tired of being under our thumb. During the pandemic when I found how dependent we were on China for medical and pharmaceutical stuff, stupid.

national security issues.

This is what they say on just about everything they want to get done. Looking at the world I think our government is a national security threat. I am just ranting because I'm a grouchy old man.