Please Read This Artical http://www.drdino.com/cse.asp?pg=articles&specific=49 and tell me what is wrong with it
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Probability of Evolution
- Thread starter Jon
- Start date
Please Read This Artical http://www.drdino.com/cse.asp?pg=articles&specific=49 and tell me what is wrong with it
The problem is we can use those same probabilities and math to prove you couldn't have been born. What is the probability that your mother and your father met each other out of all the billions of people in the world? What about their parents? And keep going back...the odds of YOU being born with all the possible combinations of people in the world are hardly calculable...yet here you are!
Yes, this is simplistic...Hovind wrote the article knowing that personal incredulity is a powerful ally
Yes, this is simplistic...Hovind wrote the article knowing that personal incredulity is a powerful ally
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Nathan Poe
Well-Known Member
Agreed. What are the odds of getting married, winning the lottery, and getting struck by lightning, all on the same day? A billion to one? A trillion to one?
And yet, if we were to find someone who did win the lotto and get struck by lightning on their wedding day, what would you tell them? "Well, the odds against this are so small, it couldn't have happened to you..."
Quoting statistics and probabilities of something after it has already occured is fun, but obviously doesn't prove that it didn't happen.
Kent Hovind is counting on you not being smart enough to realize that.
From an episode of Gilligan's Island
Skipper: Great, the odds are a million to one. What could be worse?
Gilligan: A million to none.
See, even Gilligan gets it. Even if the odds were 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 to 1, all we need is for that one time to happen.
And yet, if we were to find someone who did win the lotto and get struck by lightning on their wedding day, what would you tell them? "Well, the odds against this are so small, it couldn't have happened to you..."
Quoting statistics and probabilities of something after it has already occured is fun, but obviously doesn't prove that it didn't happen.
Kent Hovind is counting on you not being smart enough to realize that.
From an episode of Gilligan's Island
Skipper: Great, the odds are a million to one. What could be worse?
Gilligan: A million to none.
See, even Gilligan gets it. Even if the odds were 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 to 1, all we need is for that one time to happen.
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That isn't probablitly. My mother and my father would have met someone, they just ended up meeting each other. If my father didn't meet my mother then he would have probably met someone else.
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In a nutshell, the problem with that (and other probability calculations for abiogenesis), is it carries a basic bulit-in assumption that there is only one possible "path" for the formation of life and that it must occur in a specific sequence.
It would be like asking the probability of events that occured from the time I got up until the time I typed out this message. The probability would be astronomically high, but that's not the only possible sequence of events that could have occured that would result in me posting this message. It just happens to be the one that did.
It would be like asking the probability of events that occured from the time I got up until the time I typed out this message. The probability would be astronomically high, but that's not the only possible sequence of events that could have occured that would result in me posting this message. It just happens to be the one that did.
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That's precisely the point, Jon. There are multiple possible outcomes for your father meeting someone, and any number of sequence of events leading to those outcomes.
However, the probability of a specific sequence of events leading him to meet a particular woman are astronomical.
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I was thinking this on the way to work...everything that happens in a normal day is a culmination of billions and billions of "chance" events. I passed a guy on the stairs...what are the odds that we (these particular two people) would be in the same country, the same city, the same building, the same staircase at the same time?
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Do you really? That's great! Hovind uses this stuff to try to confuse and confound people, most of whom would never ask someone else their opinion on the matter...what are the odds that YOU are one of those few people that asked for more info
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Ever seen the movie Run Lola Run? It deals with how tiny little "chance" events (like passing someone on the street) can have a "ripple effect" through time, influencing people's lives far into the future.
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I am not assuming anything. Hovind has been professionally refuted and his personal motives and methods brought under scrutiny. The guy is shady and deceptive at BEST.
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Is this your personal observation, or did you get it from somewhere else? If you got this from somewhere else where did you get it from?
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Jon, his PhD (so he can call himself Dr.) was purchased from a degree mill called Patriot University which is run out of a split level house in Colorado. He has been in trouble with the law for building code violations and he was arrested for assaulting a woman.
The Dr. Dino site has been refuted by scientists and even other creationists.
Here is athread where we discussed his arrest...and if you do a thread title search for "Hovind" there are many more
http://www.christianforums.com/threads/22095.html
The Dr. Dino site has been refuted by scientists and even other creationists.
Here is athread where we discussed his arrest...and if you do a thread title search for "Hovind" there are many more
http://www.christianforums.com/threads/22095.html
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Yep, just because something has a low probability, doesnt mean that it wont happen.
I mean, look at the lotery. Theres a very low probability of someone winning, Yet people often win.
I mean, look at the lotery. Theres a very low probability of someone winning, Yet people often win.
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That isn't a very good example. One person wins every time, however theres a very low probability that you will win.
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Exactly.
But we arent talking about the probability that I will win, just that someone will.
Now you see how something that has a very low probability can still easily happen.
But we arent talking about the probability that I will win, just that someone will.
Now you see how something that has a very low probability can still easily happen.
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Mechanical Bliss
Secrecy and accountability cannot co-exist.
That's not true. One person doesn't win every time. Now I guess it depends on which game it is (like getting a couple numbers right might get you some $$$), but there are days when nobody picks all the numbers correctly and the pot carries over to the next day from what I understand. Eventually someone will win, but there isn't necessarily a winner every time numbers are drawn.
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LewisWildermuth
Senior Veteran
While doing research on the man (Hovind) has lead me to the same conclusion, you can see by this and a few other of his arguments that are refuted just by a few seconds of research or even thinking about the issue, he does not do the research he claims to on his "facts".
If he is fully willing to use arguments that he has admitted are false and lies about even bothering to research his arguments, one should ask one's self if this is the actions of a person we should trust.
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