Off Elections Are About The President

[mark46]

Off elections are about the president.

The economy will NOT be the top issue. The president has a 40% favorability rating with the best economy ever.

Russia will NOT be the main issue. Mueller won't indict Trump by November, and the guilt of his henchmen won't rub off on Trump.
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The issue for November is Donald J Trump. There have many accomplishments. The question is whether those independents and mainstream Republicans who voted for Trump in 2016 will back the Republicans with Trump as the leader. Trump is the deal maker????? Trump is the spokesman on unifying the country????? Trump is the leader of the free world fighting Russia and China??????

Who will turn out for the mid-terms? Who will maintain those who voted for them in 2016 and expand the vote individual districts? We will have a national referendum, as we always do 2 years in to a presidency. And this time, the president has a Republican House and Senate. All he needs to do is to lead.

 

[Albion]

That is generally true, but there is no way of knowing for sure. You are unwilling to give the president much credit for what he has accomplished, but his base seems mindful of it and appreciative. Then too, the more irrational hate that is thrown at the president, the more it keeps his base committed. So, the turnout is tough to predict this time around--haters and defenders are both motivated to an unusual level.

Also, the Democrats must defend many more seats in the Senate than the Republicans this year, so the election wont be typical in that respect. In short, we can say that the 2018 elections are likely to favor the Democrats, but there are too many variables to make that a sure thing.

 

[mark46]

SENATE
I agree. If the Republicans are able to mount a reasonable campaign, the Senate should remain in their hands.

HOUSE
The House is about swing districts, primarily suburban ones. Catering to Trump's base will lose votes, rather than gain them. So, as is the normally the case, especially when the president is unpopular, the House seems likely to switch.

That is generally true, but there is no way of knowing for sure. You are unwilling to give the president much credit for what he has accomplished, but his base seems mindful of it and appreciative. Then too, the more irrational hate that is thrown at the president, the more it keeps his base committed. So, the turnout is tough to predict this time around--haters and defenders are both motivated to an unusual level.

Also, the Democrats must defend many more seats in the Senate than the Republicans this year, so the election wont be typical in that respect. In short, we can say that the 2018 elections are likely to favor the Democrats, but there are too many variables to make that a sure thing.

 

[Albion]

There is not much to disagree with there, but this probably is not going to be a typical off-year election, so I'm just saying not to bet the house on the outcome.