Nikki Haley announces GOP Presidential Bid

[WolfGate]

Nikki Haley announces 2024 presidential bid in first major GOP challenge to Donald Trump

Nikki Haley, a former U.N. ambassador and South Carolina governor, is the first major Republican to challenge Donald Trump in 2024 presidential race.

www.usatoday.com

I am all in on this one. Actually discusses policy. Was not afraid in SC to do what was right even when party disagreed. Solid conservative

 

[Saucy]

I'll have to take a closer look at her platform, but I'd vote for her!

 

[essentialsaltes]

She hitched her wagon to Trump, which brought her down in my eyes, but now that she's unhitched (and will actually have to oppose him in the primary) it will be interesting to see what lane she picks: Trump-y but not Trump, or not-Trumpy. I think the latter is more her style, but who knows?

 

[ecumeni]

She is #1 for me right now.

 

[ThatRobGuy]

She hitched her wagon to Trump, which brought her down in my eyes, but now that she's unhitched (and will actually have to oppose him in the primary) it will be interesting to see what lane she picks: Trump-y but not Trump, or not-Trumpy. I think the latter is more her style, but who knows?

I don't know if she has the nationwide recognition to make a "go" of it in the primaries.

There are primaries (for both parties), where it's pretty much a given who the two front-runners are...and very few where there's actually a competitive race between 3 or more people.


I think it'll be reminiscent of the 2016 Democratic Primaries, where everyone knew deep down that it was the Hillary vs. Bernie show, and Martin O'Malley was a basically a background character who everyone knew had zero chance of winning.

In this case, if he does indeed run (and signs point that happening), Ron DeSantis will be the other front runner along with Trump. Anyone else who decides to jump in the fray will be the "Martin O'Malleys" and "Jim Webbs" of the 2024 republican primary and I think they're lying to themselves if they think they'll be able to be in anyway competitive or get the same level of media coverage.

For "outsiders" and "lesser known" people to make any waves at all (in what's a partially rigged game at the party level with regards to their system of delegates), they'd need to have a cult following (sort of like Ron Paul did), or if they have the cash, they can go with the Ross Perot approach and spend oodles of money to get yourself in the mix as a 3rd party candidate come time for general elections.

I don't think Haley checks either of those boxes (and same would go for some of the other names I've heard like Larry Hogan and Chris Sununu)

 

[Blade]

She hitched her wagon to Trump, which brought her down in my eyes, but now that she's unhitched (and will actually have to oppose him in the primary) it will be interesting to see what lane she picks: Trump-y but not Trump, or not-Trumpy. I think the latter is more her style, but who knows?

You know as much as I truly like it.. be nice if we didn't have to bring Trump into everthing. One can say about any Rep they are some how some way tied to Trump. Its about her not Trump. The simple fact any press is good press. Keep talking about Him good or bad always helps him.

I like her.. this is going to be good!

 

[seeking.IAM]

It's nice to see GOP might have a choice that's not Trump, DeSantis, or Pence.

 

[Yttrium]

I've never voted in primaries before, but I'm strongly tempted to break tradition to vote for her. If she somehow gets nominated, I'll probably vote for her, although I'll be looking hard at how she does in debates.

 

[ThatRobGuy]

It's nice to see GOP might have a choice that's not Trump, DeSantis, or Pence.

GOP strategists and the RNC will likely have to take a number of things into consideration when determining who to throw their support behind.

I doubt Pence is on the top of anyone's list at the moment (speaking of both the more far-right wing and the more moderate wing).


Our party politics here in the US has a regional component. Meaning, what plays well in certain regions for a party doesn't play as well in other regions.

Both parties have their "stronghold regions", in which the further a candidate goes in their polarized direction, the more popular they'd be in that region. (West Coast for the Democrats, Deep South for the Republicans).

However, the Republicans have a few particular challenges that the Democrats don't when it comes to traversing that dynamic.

1) The GOP's "stronghold region" is more likely to "self-sabotage", meaning that they'd stay home or write-in the name of a more extreme candidate on election day if they felt their party's nominee wasn't sufficiently committed to "owning the libs". The Democrats seem less likely to try to sabotage a moderate from their own party. (as evidenced by the fact that people in the far-left West Coast still came out in droves to vote for Biden even though he was far from their first choice)

2) The GOP's stronghold region encompasses so many electoral votes that they don't have as much wiggle room to ruffle those feathers. By my tally, they have 124 electoral votes wrapped up in states where there's no intention to compromise on a moderate. All it would take is picking a candidate they didn't approve of, and the hardcore portion of their base stays home and they could potentially lose in some of those states. And the Moderate & Swing states they could potentially get by running a Larry Hogan or Chris Sununu wouldn't be enough to backfill those votes. Whereas, the DNC strongholds of California and NY are "blue no matter who" type voters.

3) The Florida conundrum. Florida voted overwhelmingly for DeSantis, they like him down there. Trump's margins in Florida were pretty thin. Florida's worth a lot of electoral votes. The GOP can't win without Florida. If the RNC backs Trump (and he's just got done smearing the guy Floridians like), that could cost them Florida. However, there are other states where Trump is more popular, and the inverse could happen in those states if the RNC backs DeSantis.

 

[mark46]

GOP strategists and the RNC will likely have to take a number of things into consideration when determining who to throw their support behind.

I doubt Pence is on the top of anyone's list at the moment (speaking of both the more far-right wing and the more moderate wing).


Our party politics here in the US has a regional component. Meaning, what plays well in certain regions for a party doesn't play as well in other regions.

Both parties have their "stronghold regions", in which the further a candidate goes in their polarized direction, the more popular they'd be in that region. (West Coast for the Democrats, Deep South for the Republicans).

However, the Republicans have a few particular challenges that the Democrats don't when it comes to traversing that dynamic.

1) The GOP's "stronghold region" is more likely to "self-sabotage", meaning that they'd stay home or write-in the name of a more extreme candidate on election day if they felt their party's nominee wasn't sufficiently committed to "owning the libs". The Democrats seem less likely to try to sabotage a moderate from their own party. (as evidenced by the fact that people in the far-left West Coast still came out in droves to vote for Biden even though he was far from their first choice)

2) The GOP's stronghold region encompasses so many electoral votes that they don't have as much wiggle room to ruffle those feathers. By my tally, they have 124 electoral votes wrapped up in states where there's no intention to compromise on a moderate. All it would take is picking a candidate they didn't approve of, and the hardcore portion of their base stays home and they could potentially lose in some of those states. And the Moderate & Swing states they could potentially get by running a Larry Hogan or Chris Sununu wouldn't be enough to backfill those votes. Whereas, the DNC strongholds of California and NY are "blue no matter who" type voters.

3) The Florida conundrum. Florida voted overwhelmingly for DeSantis, they like him down there. Trump's margins in Florida were pretty thin. Florida's worth a lot of electoral votes. The GOP can't win without Florida. If the RNC backs Trump (and he's just got done smearing the guy Floridians like), that could cost them Florida. However, there are other states where Trump is more popular, and the inverse could happen in those states if the RNC backs DeSantis.

My analysis and thoughts are about the primaries only.
===================================
1) The anti-Trumpers in the Republican Party include lots and lots of donors, in addition to traditional McConnell/Pence?Romney type Republicans and the so-called "moderate" Republicans like Hogan.
2) The traditionalists will NOT lose the Senate again because of Scott's incompetence and the drag of Trump's endorsements and campaigning. McConnell will play more of a role in the Senate candidate choices than in 2022.
3) That being said, there is no way that the traditionalists or the money folk will allow Trump to secure the denomination. They control the money and those who will knock on doors. A Trump nomination, with collusion from the media just won't happen again,
============
THE EARLY PRIMARIES
Yes, there will be battles in Iowa, NH, SC and NV, before the big battle on Super Tuesday. Often the nomination is all but over by then because only the top candidate or two has the money needed to campaign strongly in all the Super Tuesday states.

The BOTTOM LINE is that the race likely won't be over before Super Tuesday. It is possible that DiSantis will have an overwhelming lead before Super Tuesday. Personally, I don't see it, but it certainly could happen. I see Haley as a strong candidate for VP and president in the future. However, I also see her as a very strong compromise candidate for 2022 for those who don't want DiSantis. She's been working hard at making money connections and political friends for many years. And yes, she has also been fundraising for years.

Let Trump and DiSantis fight it out in Florida. Haley has a reasonable chance at the nomination.

 

[WolfGate]

I don't know if she has the nationwide recognition to make a "go" of it in the primaries.

There are primaries (for both parties), where it's pretty much a given who the two front-runners are...and very few where there's actually a competitive race between 3 or more people.


I think it'll be reminiscent of the 2016 Democratic Primaries, where everyone knew deep down that it was the Hillary vs. Bernie show, and Martin O'Malley was a basically a background character who everyone knew had zero chance of winning.

In this case, if he does indeed run (and signs point that happening), Ron DeSantis will be the other front runner along with Trump. Anyone else who decides to jump in the fray will be the "Martin O'Malleys" and "Jim Webbs" of the 2024 republican primary and I think they're lying to themselves if they think they'll be able to be in anyway competitive or get the same level of media coverage.

For "outsiders" and "lesser known" people to make any waves at all (in what's a partially rigged game at the party level with regards to their system of delegates), they'd need to have a cult following (sort of like Ron Paul did), or if they have the cash, they can go with the Ross Perot approach and spend oodles of money to get yourself in the mix as a 3rd party candidate come time for general elections.

I don't think Haley checks either of those boxes (and same would go for some of the other names I've heard like Larry Hogan and Chris Sununu)

Granted this is a national stage and not just South Carolina, but that reasoning for why she won’t be a major factor is exactly what she encountered in her run for Governor, and she came out on top in that primary. She has a unique gift to balance focusing on policy with also understanding an electorate and how to handle the rhetoric and what resonates with voters. Bullies have not fared well with her either as she generally makes them look petty and ignorant. I do not discount her. She is the first Republican candidate I have been excited about in a decade.

 

[Soyeong]

I think that she'd make a good President, but it is doubtful that she could over come the popularity of Trump or DeSantis, however, DeSantis with her as VP would make a solid ticket.

 

[ThatRobGuy]

Granted this is a national stage and not just South Carolina, but that reasoning for why she won’t be a major factor is exactly what she encountered in her run for Governor, and she came out on top in that primary. She has a unique gift to balance focusing on policy with also understanding an electorate and how to handle the rhetoric and what resonates with voters. Bullies have not fared well with her either as she generally makes them look petty and ignorant. I do not discount her. She is the first Republican candidate I have been excited about in a decade.

There have been some potentially great candidates for both parties, but money and media exposure talks, and everything else walks (the actual adage goes a little differently, but I can't quote the exact version here as it make a "naughty word" reference to male cow excrement)

If you just look at at speaking time during debates, you'll see that these primaries are pretty much rigged in favor of the "publicly perceived front runners"

It's a concern that Politico expressed during the 2016 democratic primaries

Who spoke the most during the debate?

During the Democratic debate, Clinton spoke for 46 minutes and 52 seconds.

www.politico.com

(and similar things happened during the GOP primary debates that year)


As long as mainstream media outlets are tasked with running debates, and they're on a quest for ratings... DeSantis and Trump will get all the questions (which will largely be questions involving the other...because that's what will draw ratings), and the outliers will get maybe 3-4 minutes of speaking time at best.

And for 2024, it doesn't help that both parties (for very different reasons) seem to have a fascination with the notion of a DeSantis vs. Trump bloodbath.

 

[Pommer]

And for 2024, it doesn't help that both parties (for very different reasons) seem to have a fascination with the notion of a DeSantis vs. Trump bloodbath.

The “politics=entertainment” will finally end after such a cage-match.

 

[mark46]

There have been some potentially great candidates for both parties, but money and media exposure talk

I don't understand why you think that Haley will have less access to money than DiSantis and Trump. Many of the donors are money folk who are extremely practical. Moat don't want the Republicans to run Trump or DiSantis.

 

[mark46]

As long as mainstream media outlets are tasked with running debates, and they're on a quest for ratings... DeSantis and Trump will get all the questions (which will largely be questions involving the other...because that's what will draw ratings), and the outliers will get maybe 3-4 minutes of speaking time at best.

So you think that seeing DiSantis and Trump battle it out in the 4 early debates will help either one of them?

 

[rambot]

Another female competitor. I wonder how Trump will handle this.

Personally, I'm not convinced I'm a fan but I admit I know little of her. She appears to be competent and speaks competently. So even JUST that would be a delightful change of pace, I think we could all agree on.

 

[Postvieww]

Nikki Haley announces 2024 presidential bid in first major GOP challenge to Donald Trump

Nikki Haley, a former U.N. ambassador and South Carolina governor, is the first major Republican to challenge Donald Trump in 2024 presidential race.

www.usatoday.com

I am all in on this one. Actually discusses policy. Was not afraid in SC to do what was right even when party disagreed. Solid conservative

Perfectly within her right to enter but she has a zero chance of winning the nomination.

 

[Desk trauma]

The “politics=entertainment” will finally end after such a cage-match.

I don’t see why.

 

[ThatRobGuy]

So you think that seeing DiSantis and Trump battle it out in the 4 early debates will help either one of them?

For people on the "Team Trump" of that exchange, yes. The die-hard Trump fans seems to be enthralled with his trash talking.

Conventional wisdom would've dictated that a lot of the things Trump did would've been political suicide, but each time, it seemed to make him more popular among his tribe of die-hard supporters.