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My Black Swan Challenge

AV1611VET

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Theory: All swans are white.
Theory Disproved: A black swan is born.
Later: Black swan dies without having any offspring.

Question: Is it okay to go back to the original theory?

(Assume melanistic swans are an exception.)
 

SkyWriting

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Theory: All swans are white.
Theory Disproved: A black swan is born.
Later: Black swan dies without having any offspring.

Question: Is it okay to go back to the original theory?

(Assume melanistic swans are an exception.)
Uh oh...
00903-pk-p1.jpg
 
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Occams Barber

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Theory: All swans are white.
Theory Disproved: A black swan is born.

Black swan cygnets are actually greyish brown and, swans are hatched, not born - but I know what you mean. :)
upload_2022-2-24_9-36-54.jpeg


Later: Black swan dies without having any offspring.

Question: Is it okay to go back to the original theory?

Sorry - too late. The black swan proves there are black swan gene(s) in the gene pool. You can't discount the possibility of another black swan being born.

(Assume melanistic swans are an exception.)
An exception is not an impossibility.

OB
 
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AV1611VET

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Black swan cygnets are actually greyish brown and, swans are hatched, not born -
Ouch!

That was a rookie mistake even I should have known better!
Occams Barber said:
- but I know what you mean.
You're a gentleman!
Occams Barber said:
Sorry - too late. The black swan proves there are black swan gene(s) in the gene pool. You can't discount the possibility of another black swan being born.
You mean "hatched"?

^_^ -- Just kidding.

But for the record, just because a swan can be potentially black, that doesn't mean that the theory ALL SWANS ARE WHITE is wrong, does it?

I mean, perhaps they all are white, until another black one is hatched.

HOWEVER, I suppose the line ALL SWANS ARE WHITE would be more of an observation then, than a theory?
 
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Occams Barber

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But for the record, just because a swan can be potentially black, that doesn't mean that the theory ALL SWANS ARE WHITE is wrong, does it

I mean, perhaps they all are white, until another black one is hatched.

Yes - its wrong. ALL SWANS ARE WHITE is an absolute statement allowing for no exceptions. Unless you've somehow managed to survey every swan on the face of the Earth you have no way of guaranteeing that there isn't a black swan paddling away in the backwaters of Siberia. Even if you qualify the statement to limit it to ALL BLACK SWANS ALIVE TODAY you could still be wrong. As a matter of actual fact you WOULD be wrong.

HOWEVER, I suppose the line ALL SWANS ARE WHITE would be more of an observation then, than a theory?

If you live in Australia it would be a grossly incorrect observation and a totally disproven theory.

OB
 
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Yttrium

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Theory: All swans are white.
Theory Disproved: A black swan is born.
Later: Black swan dies without having any offspring.

Question: Is it okay to go back to the original theory?

No, the theory must be revised.

All swans are white, with some possible black exceptions.
 
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AV1611VET

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Yes - its wrong. ALL SWANS ARE WHITE is an absolute statement allowing for no exceptions. Unless you've somehow managed to survey every swan on the face of the Earth you have no way of guaranteeing that there isn't a black swan paddling away in the backwaters of Siberia. Even if you qualify the statement to limit it to ALL BLACK SWANS ALIVE TODAY you could still be wrong. As a matter of actual fact you WOULD be wrong.



If you live in Australia it would be a grossly incorrect observation and a totally disproven theory.

OB
Thank you, sir.
 
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Shemjaza

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Theory: All swans are white.
Theory Disproved: A black swan is born.
Later: Black swan dies without having any offspring.

Question: Is it okay to go back to the original theory?

(Assume melanistic swans are an exception.)

Returning to the original would be unjustified without a much higher standard of evidence.

It is now known that swans can be black, so unless all swans can be observed the assumption of whiteness is unjustified.
 
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Occams Barber

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Black Swans are exclusively indigenous to Australia. Black swans existing outside of Australia are the result of transplantation. Therefore if Australia's black swan didn't exist, all swans would be white.


Apart from the South American black necked swan which has white body plumage and a black neck.

All swans are white apart from the ones which aren't white. :rolleyes:

OB
 
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ozso

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Apart from the South American black necked swan which has white body plumage and a black neck.

All swans are white apart from the ones which aren't white. :rolleyes:

OB

South American black necked swans are not Australian black swans, ergo they are white swans. However if you pluck either variety, then all swans are pink swans.
 
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Occams Barber

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South American black necked swans are not Australian black swans, ergo they are white swans. However if you pluck either variety, then all swans are pink swans.


You're right.

Black necked swans are not black swans, but neither are they white swans. In fact black swans and white swans are more closely related to each other than either is to the black necked swan.

All three swans are separate species. There are 6 surviving species of swan. There were more in the past.

OB
 
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AV1611VET

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Did I ever tell you about the famous Green Swans of Timbuktu?
If it wasn't for fiction, academians wouldn't know how to answer our questions.
 
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ozso

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You're right.

Black necked swans are not black swans, but neither are they white swans. In fact black swans and white swans are more closely related to each other than either is to the black necked swan.

All three swans are separate species. There are 6 surviving species of swan. There were more in the past.

OB

Sounds like the black necked swan is an anomaly. Perhaps they're really only pseudo-swans.
 
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