Monkeypox--leveling off

[tall73]

They detected the first suspected case of monkeypox in Argentina - California18

The national Ministry of Health reported that the first suspected case of monkeypox was detected in Argentina.

 

[Aldebaran]

Well don't worry, in this case they planned ahead for such a scenario--literally. At the 2021 Munich Security Conference they ran a tabletop exercise.

Securityconference.org-Road to Munich

On March 17, 2021, Wolfgang Ischinger, Chairman of the MSC, and Ernest J. Moniz, Co-Chairman and CEO of the Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI), convened current and former global leaders and experts for a tabletop exercise focusing on reducing high-consequence biological threats with potentially catastrophic consequences. The impact of COVID-19 provided a pressing backdrop for this exercise, as the ongoing pandemic has highlighted weaknesses in the international architecture for preventing, detecting, and responding to pandemic threats. Key themes that emerged from the discussion included the need to strengthen international pandemic risk assessment and early warning systems.


Here is the full report :

https://www.nti.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/NTI_Paper_BIO-TTX_Final.pdf

Exercise Scenario
Developed in consultation with technical and
policy experts, the exercise scenario portrayed
a deadly, global pandemic involving an unusual
strain of monkeypox virus that first emerges in the
fictional country of Brinia and eventually spreads
globally. Later in the exercise, the scenario reveals
that the initial outbreak was caused by a terrorist
attack using a pathogen engineered in a laboratory
with inadequate biosafety and biosecurity
provisions and weak oversight. The exercise
scenario concludes with more than three billion
cases and 270 million fatalities globally. As part of
the scenario development process, NTI conducted
a virtual consultation with experts in December
2020. (See Appendix A for the list of participating
experts.)

A screenshot from the materials:

View attachment 316189



And here is the archived version on the waybackmachine from April 15:

Wayback Machine


In the scenario the Monkeypox virus was modified to be more transmissible and vaccine resistant.

I must say that it's very comforting to know that our government is so inciteful that they can foresee exactly what viruses (and even strange variants of them) are coming, when they are coming (around election time when Republicans are set to take the majority), and conveniently have millions of vaccines ready for it out of the blue.
It's as if they have some kind of crystal ball....or a hand in the origin of it. And the same people are always right there to tell us what we'll be having to give up.

Get ready for another year or two of Dr. Fauci, infection/death totals scrolling across your TV screen, mask mandates, questionable side-effects from "vaccines", and the demonizing of people who just want to live a normal life (those who want to kill Grandma).

 

[bèlla]

I don’t care what they call it. I’m not taking anything! No stick, no pill, no lies.

 

[sfs]

The combination I see here so frequently -- of intense skepticism toward genuine experts in infectious disease with complete credulity towards insane conspiracy theories -- is reassuring in its consistency. Whatever happens in this chaotic and ever-changing world, some people can be counted on to be 100% wrong all the time.

 

[tall73]

The combination I see here so frequently -- of intense skepticism toward genuine experts in infectious disease with complete credulity towards insane conspiracy theories -- is reassuring in its consistency. Whatever happens in this chaotic and ever-changing world, some people can be counted on to be 100% wrong all the time.

So that folks know where you are coming from, you are not denying the existence of this exercise referenced, just the interpretation?

Generally these are held with the intent of seeing where there are potential issues in international response, correct?

 

[ThatRobGuy]

I must say that it's very comforting to know that our government is so inciteful that they can foresee exactly what viruses (and even strange variants of them) are coming, when they are coming (around election time when Republicans are set to take the majority), and conveniently have millions of vaccines ready for it out of the blue.
It's as if they have some kind of crystal ball....or a hand in the origin of it. And the same people are always right there to tell us what we'll be having to give up.

Get ready for another year or two of Dr. Fauci, infection/death totals scrolling across your TV screen, mask mandates, questionable side-effects from "vaccines", and the demonizing of people who just want to live a normal life (those who want to kill Grandma).

I don't think Monkeypox is the same situation as covid...

Covid was a novel virus, Monkeypox has been around for a while and it's already well-understood. (the US had a small outbreak of it in 2003, and it's been observed for quite a while in other parts of the world)

It's also my understanding that the primary vaccines (and the oral and IV therapeutics) for Monkeypox are the drugs and vaccines (ACAM2000) they use for Smallpox...which are vaccine formats that have been around for quite some time that the US has kept in the national stockpile. It's been used widely as the primary form of smallpox vaccination since 2008, and been in our national stockpile since 2010 - as a precaution in case another country were to try to unleash smallpox as a biological weapon.

So a lot of the types of "virus denial/vaccine skepticism" we heard surrounding covid won't be applicable for this (if it even turns into anything noteworthy)

 

[tall73]

I don't think Monkeypox is the same situation as covid...

Covid was a novel virus, Monkeypox has been around for a while and it's already well-understood.

It's also my understanding that the primary vaccines (and the oral and IV therapeutics) for Monkeypox are the drugs and vaccines they use for Smallpox...which have been around for quite some time.

So a lot of the types of "virus denial/vaccine skepticism" we heard surrounding covid won't be applicable for this (if it even turns into anything noteworthy)

Which makes it even stranger that they chose Monkeypox for their tabletop exercise of a possible future contagion for terrorism use. But it was a modified version that was more transmissible and vaccine resistant.

So far the sequencing suggests this is very similar to a known type. So let's hope it isn't that scenario.

 

[sfs]

So that folks know where you are coming from, you are not denying the existence of this exercise referenced, just the interpretation?

Correct.

Generally these are held with the intent of seeing where there are potential issues in international response, correct?

Also correct. Pretty much everyone who works in global public health, especially those of us working on disease outbreaks, has been well aware of the likelihood of future outbreaks and pandemics of 'emerging diseases', and monkeypox is on the list of pathogens that people have been worrying about. Mind you, we're worried both about pathogens we know about, like monkeypox, Ebola, Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever, and a bunch of others, and ones we haven't encountered yet, like SARS-CoV-2. Getting serious funding for surveillance and prevention when there isn't an outbreak happening, though, is a challenge, since political systems are not well suited toward addressing that kind of threat. (We have tried, though -- e.g. this project. I spent a lot of time working on that proposal. Note that you've quoted one of the researchers involved in it above -- Christian Happi.)

 

[ThatRobGuy]

I don’t care what they call it. I’m not taking anything! No stick, no pill, no lies.

That's not exactly what I would call a great strategy and approach to health.

"I'm not taking anything, no matter what it is" sounds more like sheer obstinance than a position that's grounded in any sort of research or pragmatism.

 

[sfs]

Which makes it even stranger that they chose Monkeypox for their tabletop exercise of a possible future contagion for terrorism use. But it was a modified version that was more transmissible and vaccine resistant.

Monkeypox virus is a 'select agent', which means it's on the fairly short list of pathogens that the US takes very seriously as potential threats. (Note that it's only the Central African variety that's a select agent, not the West African, which is what is involved in this outbreak.)

 

[tall73]

Correct.

Also correct. Pretty much everyone who works in global public health, especially those of us working on disease outbreaks, has been well aware of the likelihood of future outbreaks and pandemics of 'emerging diseases', and monkeypox is on the list of pathogens that people have been worrying about. Mind you, we're worried both about pathogens we know about, like monkeypox, Ebola, Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever, and a bunch of others, and ones we haven't encountered yet, like SARS-CoV-2. Getting serious funding for surveillance and prevention when there isn't an outbreak happening, though, is a challenge, since political systems are not well suited toward addressing that kind of threat. (We have tried, though -- e.g. this project. I spent a lot of time working on that proposal. Note that you've quoted one of the researchers involved in it above -- Christian Happi.)

Thank you for the insight.

I keep hearing different messages so far in this, which can happen in media I am sure, in a rapidly developing situation.

But I am hearing that it is long looked at as a possible threat.

And I am hearing that it is really not much of a threat due to the nature of transmission and DNA structure which makes mutations less likely.

And we are hearing from those familiar with the patterns in Africa that this is not exactly following the expected path for this virus. Though some acknowledge that Ebola had a similar learning curve regarding sexual transmission.

While I understand the purpose of such exercises. I do wonder if publishing the weaknesses in the system is a good idea when the whole exercise is premised on the notion that some terrorists would want to know those to exploit them.

 

[tall73]

Monkeypox virus is a 'select agent', which means it's on the fairly short list of pathogens that the US takes very seriously as potential threats. (Note that it's only the Central African variety that's a select agent, not the West African, which is what is involved in this outbreak.)

Due to the case fatality rate disparity, correct?

 

[ThatRobGuy]

Which makes it even stranger that they chose Monkeypox for their tabletop exercise of a possible future contagion for terrorism use. But it was a modified version that was more transmissible and vaccine resistant.

So far the sequencing suggests this is very similar to a known type. So let's hope it isn't that scenario.

The US has had a small outbreak of this before back in 2003.

It was somewhat underwhelming
2003 Midwest monkeypox outbreak - Wikipedia

71 total cases in the midwest region of the US, and 0 deaths.

For this one, thus far, I believe the CDC is monitoring fewer than a dozen potential cases in all of the US, and fewer than 100 worldwide being monitored at the moment.


I think given the events of the past few years, a lot of people are hypersensitive to the topic of viruses and contagions (which is somewhat understandable), but I don't think it's time to press the "panic button" just yet on this one.

The Ebola outbreak a few years back was a much bigger cause for concern than this situation in my opinion.

 

[tall73]

The US has had a small outbreak of this before back in 2003.

It was somewhat underwhelming
2003 Midwest monkeypox outbreak - Wikipedia

71 total cases in the midwest region of the US, and 0 deaths.

For this one, thus far, I believe the CDC is monitoring fewer than a dozen potential cases in all of the US, and fewer than 100 worldwide being monitored at the moment.


I think given the events of the past few years, a lot of people are hypersensitive to the topic of viruses and contagions (which is somewhat understandable), but I don't think it's time to press the "panic button" just yet on this one.

The Ebola outbreak a few years back was a much bigger cause for concern than this situation in my opinion.

You will find the CDC summary of that outbreak in post 2.

A number of scientists are noting the differences this time around. These cases don't seem to be transferred from animals to humans.

 

[sfs]

Due to the case fatality rate disparity, correct?

Yes. The West African version is only moderately nasty.

 

[tall73]

Yes. The West African version is only moderately nasty.

It seems, though I may misunderstand, that the case fatality statistics in the tabletop exercise may fall in between the two:

For instance: 70M cases/1.3M deaths

And if the goal is terror, wouldn't around one percent or a bit less (my understanding of the strain involved here) still work for that purpose, and perhaps spread more easily, especially if it is, as is being reported, in some cases limited to lesions in the genital area?

 

[sfs]

I think given the events of the past few years, a lot of people are hypersensitive to the topic of viruses and contagions (which is somewhat understandable), but I don't think it's time to press the "panic button" just yet on this one.

At this point, the official alarms that are being sounded (at least the ones I've seen) are directed at other public health and medical people, since it's a situation that deserves response (in the form of contact tracing and ring vaccination), warning to health care workers so they'll know to diagnose and treat the disease, and monitoring -- monitoring in case something genuinely new is happening. As we've seen with covid, viruses do mutate.

So far, I'm not terribly concerned about this outbreak, but one never knows.

 

[ThatRobGuy]

You will find the CDC summary of that outbreak in post 2.

A number of scientists are noting the differences this time around. These cases don't seem to be transferred from animals to humans.

Monkeypox: Doctors concerned over impact on sexual health

Yes, there are some differences with this one, and they're urging caution for gay and bisexual men as a result of the fact that the majority of UK cases have been in gay/bisexual men, which likely means that a specific type of sexual act can be a more prevalent transmitter...but it's still also possible to to contract through respiratory droplets, so there's still a need for some pragmatic/common-sense caution with regards to being around an infected person.

 

[sfs]

It seems, though I may misunderstand, that the case fatality statistics in the tabletop exercise may fall in between the two:

Could be -- I haven't seen that exercise.

 

[tall73]

It's also my understanding that the primary vaccines (and the oral and IV therapeutics) for Monkeypox are the drugs and vaccines (ACAM2000) they use for Smallpox...which are vaccine formats that have been around for quite some time that the US has kept in the national stockpile. It's been used widely as the primary form of smallpox vaccination since 2008, and been in our national stockpile since 2010 - as a precaution in case another country were to try to unleash smallpox as a biological weapon.

So a lot of the types of "virus denial/vaccine skepticism" we heard surrounding covid won't be applicable for this (if it even turns into anything noteworthy)

I think the focus on pericarditis and myocarditis during COVOD have introduced those terms to the public more widely, and my understanding is that the replicating vaccines have issues with that.

The more recent vaccine that we just purchased is non-replicating, and uses a different mechanism which, in theory, has less issues, but has not been around as long.

Though the new ones may be targeted for people with known risk factors.