Except it does not. An actual study of child abuse (well, child sexual abuse, as studying the other forms of abuse is not applicable here) shows that not all people who molest children as sexually attracted to it.Now, finally, I understand your argument.
I think it is flawed, though (or, we are working from different ideas what a pedophile is).
We don´t need to know what percentage of pedophiles end up molesting childs in order to conclude a higher risk - we just need to know that it takes a pedophile to molest a child.
To put it simply, child molestations can be broken down into two categories. The first category is the one most of us think about when we think of child molestations, where a child is kidnapped and then raped, against their will. The other form, the one we often don't think of, is where the child willingly agrees to engage in the sexual activity. Now, we agree that the child is not able to consent to such a thing, and that they have likely be groomed into making such a choice, but I think that any person can tell that there is still a difference. In the second case, the molester might not even realize the are harming the child. In the former, the point is often to cause harm to a child.
Now, pedophiles appear in both groups, but due to the motives of both groups, pedophiles are not required for either. The first group is very similar to rape among adults, where it is more about asserting power over another person and causing them pain than it is about sex. It is possible to get people who molest children, not because they are sexually attracted to children, but because they want to punish the child, cause the child pain.
In the second category, we are dealing with people who are wanting to engage in a willing sexual relationship with a child. While we agree this is harmful to the child, talking to the perpetrators will often show that they did not engage in this activity to cause harm. Now, the most obvious reason (at least common sense, but common sense can be wrong) is because they are sexually attracted to a child. But there are also other reasons, such as just being sexually attracted to the taboo nature of the act. Some people are sexually attracted to what sexual acts society condemns, and few things are condemned more than this. Another reason is because of what is termed blockage. This is where a person (normally male) was in an adult sexual relationship, but due to some circumstance, he was forced to quit (for example his wife becomes to ill to have sex). While many males will use personal means to fulfill their sexual desires, others will seek out other partners. In most cases, these are also adults, and we have affairs forming, but some times, due to a number of factors which DOES NOT have to include a sexual attraction to children, they begin to engage in sexual contact with their child/step child. You also have those who, for a number of reasons including social anxiety and some personality disorders, are unable to form romantic or sexual relationships with adults, and turn to children. Thus...
...this is not true.IOW: 100% of child molesters are pedophiles (maybe there are a few exceptions - people who do it for other reasons, but this seems to be a statistically neglectible group), thus pedophiles have a higher risk of molesting children (because non-pedophiles don´t do it).
Also, you have a weird cases which tend to not fit into either category regularly, such as the father who is sexually attracted to his own children, even though when tested, he shows a lack of sexual attraction to children in general, like that of the average male.
Now, some studies have shown that a very high percentage of child molesters are pedophiles, much higher than any reasonable estimations of pedophiles in society at large, but even with this, one is one weak grounds at best. Especially when one considers a question such as this:
"Is a child molester more likely to be male or more likely to be a pedophile?"
Of the data I found, there is around a 88% chance of a molester to be a pedophile (this was from Wikipedia, but the study they linked to could not be retrieved, so I would cast some doubt on this number). A report which I saw mentioned in a BBC article mentions that a women is responsible in about 20% of male cases, and 5% of female cases (of course, this report is also old, and so this cast some shadow of doubt). Now, while the majority of child molested are females, recent research is suggesting that more boys have been molested than what has normally be considered, so we will assume males and females are equally molested, so the average rate of molestation for female is around 12.5% (average of 20 and 5). As such, the average molester has a 87.5% chance to be a male (as they have a 12.5% chance to be a female).
So to recap.
Any given molester seems to have a 88% chance to be a pedophile and a 87.5% chance to be a male. This is NOT the chance of any given male or pedophile will molester (as I have already claimed, these figures are generally unknown), I conclude them to be too similar to say they are different enough to change the laws. Of course, these statistics are not the ones we should be using, as we should use the ones which tell the chance that a given male or a given pedophile will molest children, but while the former can be computed, there is no current way to compute the latter with enough reliability to base a law off of.
And to recap one point one last time, much of the research I used was not of the highest quality, but I think the results show that we do need high quality research to make the claims some are making, and that we cannot rely upon the assumptions some have made to back those claims.
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