Does anyone have an idea of what the likelihood is of any of this being true? I consider myself a seeker, and until I have some numbers I guess I'll never know if it's real or not. I'd like it to be, but if it isn't logical then I may as well be an Atheist - though it would be convenient I don't necessarily need religion, I don't think.
One one hand, the book of Genesis seems to be really accurate with regards to cosmology. On the other, it seems a bit implausible to me that only one tribe of people (Israelites) would be willing to listen to God, and that these two people were deceived by a snake, and so on and so forth. In other words, some of it seems amazingly accurate but other parts seem, well, I wouldn't say impossible but you do have to ask yourself why the story is the way it is, don't you?
I think, before you consider the Lord Jesus Christ, you need to figure out the likelihood of two things:
Whether you're a sinner
Whether upon meeting God after death you will be in serious trouble
To find out if you're a sinner, simply look at the 10 commandments and see if you've broken any of them. If you're human like the rest of us, then you have certainly broken at least one of them, if not many of them. So, we can set the likelihood of you being a sinner at 100 percent.
Since you are a sinner and have broken Gods laws, what are the odds of you being in serious trouble? Well, if you've broken the law, that means you deserve to be punished. If you've broken Gods laws you are going to receive Gods punishment. So, we can set the likelihood of you being in serious trouble with God at 100 percent.
So, now with this information, we can properly consider the Lord Jesus Christ.
With all of that being true, what is the likelihood that you need Jesus Christ?
Do you know why Jesus Christ was sent to earth? He was sent to pay for our sins:
1 Corinthians 15:3
For I delivered to you in the foremost what also I received: that Christ died for our sins according to the Scriptures
Let's say you were arrested for murder. If you said to the judge, "Hey Judge, please let me go. My good deeds in life have outweighed my bad deeds. I have done many good works, such as caring for the poor, volunteering at homeless shelters, and many other things." What is the likelihood that the judge will let you go and dismiss the charges? It is the same likelihood that God would let you go and dismiss your charges if you meet Him without Jesus by your side. If you try to explain to God how good you've been in life, that isn't going to pay for your crimes against Him anymore than your good deeds would get you out of a murder charge.
That is why Jesus came, because we cannot pay for our sins against a holy God. We've all sinned
Romans 3:23
for all have sinned and fall short of the glory of God
Our sins have earned us eternal death in a place called hell, Gods prison, but God doesn't want you to go there:
Romans 6:23
For the wages of sin is death, but the gift of God is eternal life in Christ Jesus our Lord
That's why He sent Jesus Christ, to pay the price we can't pay. How do we receive Gods forgiveness through Jesus Christ?
Romans 10:9-10
that if you confess with your mouth Jesus
as Lord, and believe in your heart that God raised Him from the dead, you will be saved; for with the heart a person believes, resulting in righteousness, and with the mouth he confesses, resulting in salvation.
Realize your great need for Jesus, that you actually cannot face death without Him, and receive Him as your Lord and Savior. That means that you must believe that He was raised from the dead and is alive today in Heaven; that He has the power to save you. You must confess Him as your Lord, which means that you are giving your life to Him and asking Him to be the director of your life from now on.
If you do that you will be saved, and you will know Him. It won't be a question anymore because you will meet the living God, who knows and loves you personally, and He will change you forever. He will make you into a new person who is forgiven, cleansed of your sin, and capable of living a life that pleases God. You will receive eternal life. When you stand in front of God with Jesus Christ, He says "Not Guilty"
So, you're looking at this from the wrong angle. It's not a question of what you can figure out, it is a question of your great need for a Savior. The certainty of that is 100 percent.