Is the Donbas about to fall?

[mindlight]

I'm not at all sure Ukraine would spend a lot of troops on offence even in donbass, once they get enough firepower. Sure, it would be costly to just storm the trenches. So they won't, I'd expect. Also, it may be that there are a lot of asymmetric things Ukraine can do. We probably haven't seen even all the kinds yet. I think it's going to be difficult for Russia to hold the territory long run, if they even want to after Putin dies.

Anyway, I just was reading this interesting article I think you'd find of interest also:

"I’ve been thinking about Russia and Ukraine my whole career, and I know the languages and I go to the places, and I’m sometimes shocked by how certain people are about things.
....
...I think somebody wins in the end. I think Putin will win by declaring victory. And I think what a lot of commentators miss is that his power is 100 percent coextensive with his ability to change the story. So he can say he’s won in Russia almost no matter what happens on the battlefield.

Which is why a lot of this hand-wringing that we do in the West about whether we let him save face or give him off-ramps to climb down is just completely beside the point. Because he can decide today that he’s won. He can decide tomorrow he’s won. He could have decided last month that he’s won. He could decide next month that he’s won. And then the Russian people will believe him, or they’ll pretend to believe him, which amounts to the same thing.

The Ukrainians, though, can only win on the battlefield. Zelenskyy is a democratic elected politician. He doesn’t operate in virtual reality. He has to operate in the real reality and he could only win when his people allow him to win, or you can only end the war when his people allow them to end the war. So it’s an asymmetrical situation in that sense, but I think the Ukrainians can win. They know what they’re fighting for. It’s quite literally the existence of their state and of their people that’s at stake. And that’s why they’re fighting the way they are. And that’s why they’ll fight whether we arm them or not.

(continues.... Has a lot in it. example
...The Ukrainians have definitely bought us some time to think about all this. If Kyiv had really fallen at the end of February of this year, this would have been a very dark spring for democracies. If an extreme right-wing regime in Russia managed to destroy democracy in Ukraine that would have had effects for everyone. ...
(continues...)
Ukraine and the problem of “futurelessness” (msn.com)

Excellent and insightful article. Think I might start a thread on whether the USA is still a real democracy in the American politics section.

Some key insights, from this article, were relevant to the Ukraine war.

Putin has enough power over the domestic Russian conversation to be able to say he has won a war even if he has lost. So he can leave this war anytime he wants really. For him, it is just a cost-benefit analysis of whether he has anything to gain from carrying on the fight or not. At the moment he is still making marginal, though extremely costly gains so he probably still figures he will push this as far as he can. Of course, if the Ukrainians start pushing him back then he is in a weaker position vis a vis controlling the narrative and guaranteeing his ceasefire lines. So his best policy should be to quit while he is ahead.

Where we live in time determines our interaction with the present. If we live in the past like Putin seems to do and dream of lost Soviet and Russian Imperial glory then our view of the present demands we take extreme action to make Russia great again. Since the old vision was territorial so is the present vision.

The Ukrainians still have everything to fight for, if they value living in a more transparent society, where the truth can be known. Right now, despite their sacrifices and the far worse scenarios their courage has averted, they have lost territory and so, this looks like a defeat. But their devolved fighting and democratic structures mean that local commanders have more autonomy and may well be more determined to carry on this fight whatever Zelensky says. This autonomy has given command and control advantages against the more hierarchical Russians on the battlefield also. It is hard to see an outcome that will satisfy them that does not involve the total expulsion of the Russians. But since that is unacceptable to Putin this fight will continue until he has no choice but to accept it.

In the meantime, the ports are closed and people in Africa and Asia will probably starve because of that, and increases in world energy prices have stimulated a massive increase in poverty rates around the world.

 

[Homeowner]

they have lost territory and so, this looks like a defeat

Territory means little, the will to keep fighting means everything.

 

[Nithavela]

Excellent and insightful article. Think I might start a thread on whether the USA is still a real democracy in the American politics section.

Some key insights, from this article, were relevant to the Ukraine war.

Putin has enough power over the domestic Russian conversation to be able to say he has won a war even if he has lost. So he can leave this war anytime he wants really. For him, it is just a cost-benefit analysis of whether he has anything to gain from carrying on the fight or not. At the moment he is still making marginal, though extremely costly gains so he probably still figures he will push this as far as he can. Of course, if the Ukrainians start pushing him back then he is in a weaker position vis a vis controlling the narrative and guaranteeing his ceasefire lines. So his best policy should be to quit while he is ahead

Wars begin when you will, but they do not end when you please. – Niccolò Machiavelli

 

[Halbhh]

Wars begin when you will, but they do not end when you please. – Niccolò Machiavelli

Reminds of the paraphrase of WW2 Supreme Allied Commander Eisenhower, who also ended the Korean War, and 2 term President of the U.S. --

"War settles nothing"

Or in more detail:
"...Worse than this, no one has been able to explain away the fact that war creates the conditions that beget war."

"Every gun that is made, every warship launched, every rocket fired signifies, in the final sense, a theft from those who hunger and are not fed, those who are cold and are not clothed. This world in arms is not spending money alone. It is spending the sweat of its laborers, the genius of its scientists, the hopes of its children. The cost of one modern heavy bomber is this: a modern brick school in more than 30 cities. ..."

""The hope of the world is that wisdom can arrest conflict between brothers. I believe that war is the deadly harvest of arrogant and unreasoning minds. And I find grounds for this belief in the wisdom literature of Proverbs. It says in effect this: Panic strikes like a storm and calamity comes like a whirlwind to those who hate knowledge and ignore their God."

And this this warning, from someone who ought to know:

"I know something about that war, and I never want to see that history repeated. But, my fellow Americans, it certainly can be repeated if the peace-loving democratic nations again fearfully practice a policy of standing idly by while big aggressors use armed force to conquer the small and weak."


@mindlight you may find the above interesting also

Excellent and insightful article. Think I might start a thread on whether the USA is still a real democracy in the American politics section.

Some key insights, from this article, were relevant to the Ukraine war.

Putin has enough power over the domestic Russian conversation to be able to say he has won a war even if he has lost. So he can leave this war anytime he wants really. For him, it is just a cost-benefit analysis of whether he has anything to gain from carrying on the fight or not. At the moment he is still making marginal, though extremely costly gains so he probably still figures he will push this as far as he can. Of course, if the Ukrainians start pushing him back then he is in a weaker position vis a vis controlling the narrative and guaranteeing his ceasefire lines. So his best policy should be to quit while he is ahead.

Where we live in time determines our interaction with the present. If we live in the past like Putin seems to do and dream of lost Soviet and Russian Imperial glory then our view of the present demands we take extreme action to make Russia great again. Since the old vision was territorial so is the present vision.

The Ukrainians still have everything to fight for, if they value living in a more transparent society, where the truth can be known. Right now, despite their sacrifices and the far worse scenarios their courage has averted, they have lost territory and so, this looks like a defeat. But their devolved fighting and democratic structures mean that local commanders have more autonomy and may well be more determined to carry on this fight whatever Zelensky says. This autonomy has given command and control advantages against the more hierarchical Russians on the battlefield also. It is hard to see an outcome that will satisfy them that does not involve the total expulsion of the Russians. But since that is unacceptable to Putin this fight will continue until he has no choice but to accept it.

In the meantime, the ports are closed and people in Africa and Asia will probably starve because of that, and increases in world energy prices have stimulated a massive increase in poverty rates around the world.