Is measuring climate impossible because "complex systems cannot be predicted"?

[eclipsenow]

Not if you ask the wrong questions. EG: Where exactly will a water molecule in a pot of boiling water be in 5 minutes? Impossible! But now try: What will the temperature of the water be in 5 minutes? Entirely predictable!
We CAN predict complex systems if you ask the right questions!

 

[archer75]

Anyone who clings to this notion that all the science is fake or mistaken is never going to be convinced.

 

[lesliedellow]

Not if you ask the wrong questions. EG: Where exactly will a water molecule in a pot of boiling water be in 5 minutes? Impossible! But now try: What will the temperature of the water be in 5 minutes? Entirely predictable!
We CAN predict complex systems if you ask the right questions!

Just as well. Otherwise weather forecasts wouldn't be possible.

 

[essentialsaltes]

The whole point of thermodynamics is to reduce the bajillion bajillion microscopic variables that we can't know much about into a few macroscopic variables like temperature and pressure that we can predict with great accuracy as a statistical average of all those bazillions of microscopic variables. (This is not to say that climate science is not complex -- it certainly is.)

 

[eclipsenow]

Just as well. Otherwise weather forecasts wouldn't be possible.

But predicting weather is far more difficult than predicting climate, because weather is one of those difficult 'wrong' questions that rolls the chaos dice, but climate is more like asking what temperature the water will be after 5 minutes of cooking. Weather is a specific datapoint for a specific location, climate is a general average.

 

[eclipsenow]

The whole point of thermodynamics is to reduce the bajillion bajillion microscopic variables that we can't know much about into a few macroscopic variables like temperature and pressure that we can predict with great accuracy as a statistical average of all those bazillions of microscopic variables. (This is not to say that climate science is not complex -- it certainly is.)

Exactly!