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Iran negotiations

Akita Suggagaki

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  • United States President Donald Trump says a deal with Iran is close, but Iranian officials suggest major issues, including Tehran’s nuclear programme remain unresolved.

What are the chances of a peaceful settlement?
 

askesis

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What choice does Trump have? He could blow everything up, apparently at will, but he knows he's losing, and he can't lose. Thankfully, he can just say he's winning while he's losing, and his followers will agree, applaud, and feel justified. This is the norm.
 
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Pommer

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  • United States President Donald Trump says a deal with Iran is close, but Iranian officials suggest major issues, including Tehran’s nuclear programme remain unresolved.

What are the chances of a peaceful settlement?
“Peaceful settlement”?
That’s rather optimistic.

I’m thinking that the President is angling for the time when he will “have no choice” but to use our nuclear arsenal.
(When he ran in 2016, he repeatedly asked why we have nuclear weapons if we never use them.)
 
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mindlight

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  • United States President Donald Trump says a deal with Iran is close, but Iranian officials suggest major issues, including Tehran’s nuclear programme remain unresolved.

What are the chances of a peaceful settlement?

Iran needs to choose wisely. Its remaining military assets are mapped and it faces catastrophic infrastructure degradation if it does not comply. The hard power is in place and so the soft power has a reasonable chance of success. Even ideologically blinded fanatics like this evil Iranian regime should understand that they are staring down the barrel of a gun and that their options are limited. Maybe it was ill advised to start this war but the objectives now are crystal clear and achieving them should not be undermined by fifth columnists in the USA media and political establishment. Iran cannot be allowed to have a nuclear bomb and the straits of Hormuz should be open. We all want peace but the only way to it is if Iran backs down in these two main areas.
 
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Nithavela

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I have been informed that any offer by the iranian government can't be trusted and one should instead strike them during negotiations.

And just to illustrate my point, the Iranian government re-closed the strait after opening the strait because the USA is still counter-closing the strait in response to Iran closing the strait.


Someone should have said "no backsies".
 
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Maria Billingsley

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  • United States President Donald Trump says a deal with Iran is close, but Iranian officials suggest major issues, including Tehran’s nuclear programme remain unresolved.

What are the chances of a peaceful settlement?
It doesn't matter what he does, ultimately Netanyahu is in control and he will not let Iran have any semblance of peace. Until the USA decides to fully stop funding Israel's wars, there will never be peace.
 
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Say it aint so

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I predict it will be settled, in what way and when is another matter.
But I predict Trump et al will sign some kind of agreement, and I guarantee it will be worse than the JCPOA agreement he tore up.
 
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Akita Suggagaki

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essentialsaltes

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Trump says US navy like ‘pirates’ while seizing a ship in Iranian blockade

“We … land on top of it and we took over the ship. We took over the cargo, took over the oil. It’s a very profitable business,” said Trump at a rally in Florida on Friday.

“We’re like pirates,” he added to cheers from the crowd. “We’re sort of like pirates. But we’re not playing games.”

US warns shipping firms they could face sanctions for paying Iranian tolls in Strait of Hormuz

The alert posted Friday by the US Office of Foreign Assets Control adds another layer of pressure in the standoff between the US and Iran over control of the Strait of Hormuz.

[After Iran closed the Strait] It later began offering some ships safe passage by detouring them through alternate routes closer to its shoreline, charging fees at times for the service.
 
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Akita Suggagaki

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“We’re like pirates,” he added to cheers from the crowd. “We’re sort of like pirates. But we’re not playing games.”

Making America great?
 
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Lukaris

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It seems hard to know whether the Iranian government is resilient or stalling for time. Negotiations seem to indicate a hard line stance is prevalent as of Saturday May 2nd.




The overlap & competition of Iranian groups still seem to share a common goal. From another article I an linking below:

*****
These are not clean factions. Their members overlap, and their positions can shift. All appear invested in the survival of the Islamic Republic. What differs is their method: tactical negotiation, coercive escalation, ideological discipline, or some combination of the three. ******


Meanwhile Iranian society suffers continued oppression, hardship, & deprivation. Per the 2nd linked article:


******For ordinary Iranians, the question is not whether one faction speaks more softly than another. The deeper point is that the same system still controls war, repression, public life and the limits of political choice. The names may shift; the method endures.****




Then there is the question of how much damage Iranian drones have done to US military assets in the Iranian sector. Are the mullahs emboldened by this possibility?
 
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DaisyDay

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So is the war on or off?

What to know about the Iran war today:
  • Iran launched its first missile and drone attack on the United Arab Emirates since a ceasefire with the U.S. took effect on April 8, and it fired two drones at a ship in the Strait of Hormuz, UAE authorities said Monday.
  • The U.S. military said two commercial vessels safely transited the key waterway Monday under the Project Freedom initiative announced by President Trump. Iran fired missiles at ships being protected during the operation, and the commander of Central Command says U.S. forces destroyed six Iranian small boats for trying "to interfere."
 
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