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If Russia invades the Ukraine...
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<blockquote data-quote="mindlight" data-source="post: 76677467" data-attributes="member: 21246"><p>Detaching ourselves from the rage engendered by war crimes such as the massacre of civilians and of prisoners of war is essential to finding a way toward peace.</p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p>I actually agree with this point as I did 7 years ago when we discussed the possibility of a divided Ukraine as the best way to resolve the clash of worldviews implicit in its internal turmoil. But while the East of the Donbas was secured as a part of the Russian cultural vision large parts of the West of it never were. Mariupol has only been secured by extreme violence and turning the city into a rubble heap and it is not even completely conquered yet three months into the war. Russian casualties in the Donbas do not speak of cheering crowds throwing flowers across the marching Russian soldier's paths. They are being made to fight for every inch of land they gain. It would be disingenuous to suggest there is a natural divide in the country deep in Ukrainian territory when this war seems to have shifted the geographical line between pro-Russian and pro-Ukraine close to the Russian border. At the start of this war, I would have suggested the Dnieper River as the natural divide based on the 2010 Russian election results. But even Russian Ukrainians resent this intrusion into their territory and this war has activated a national identity that was only grudging before it. Now I believe the Donbas, Crimea, and maybe a land bridge to the Crimea are the very most the Russians can expect to gain.</p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p>The longer this war goes on the less advantage Russia has in terms of equipment. They have succeeded in mobilizing and unifying the Western world against them and Finland and Sweden and maybe even Ukraine will eventually join NATO because of this. They have woken Germany from its 30-year slumber and discredited and disgraced the peaceniks that have served their Russian purpose in the German parliament these last 3 decades. ExChancellor Gerhard Schroeder is now a pariah. But at the end of the day, this will be a war of attrition and peace will come with compromises for both sides.</p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p>He is prepared to sacrifice more men and seems to have full control over his people. They serve him because they fear him more than love him though and morale in the Russian army is not high. Zelensky by contrast does not need to mobilize his people to fight because they are all doing that and he merely expresses their passion in his diatribes and directs it to the enemy. He is in the weaker position nation for the nation but he has more friends and arguably his friends are bigger and more militarily potent than either Russia or China.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="mindlight, post: 76677467, member: 21246"] Detaching ourselves from the rage engendered by war crimes such as the massacre of civilians and of prisoners of war is essential to finding a way toward peace. I actually agree with this point as I did 7 years ago when we discussed the possibility of a divided Ukraine as the best way to resolve the clash of worldviews implicit in its internal turmoil. But while the East of the Donbas was secured as a part of the Russian cultural vision large parts of the West of it never were. Mariupol has only been secured by extreme violence and turning the city into a rubble heap and it is not even completely conquered yet three months into the war. Russian casualties in the Donbas do not speak of cheering crowds throwing flowers across the marching Russian soldier's paths. They are being made to fight for every inch of land they gain. It would be disingenuous to suggest there is a natural divide in the country deep in Ukrainian territory when this war seems to have shifted the geographical line between pro-Russian and pro-Ukraine close to the Russian border. At the start of this war, I would have suggested the Dnieper River as the natural divide based on the 2010 Russian election results. But even Russian Ukrainians resent this intrusion into their territory and this war has activated a national identity that was only grudging before it. Now I believe the Donbas, Crimea, and maybe a land bridge to the Crimea are the very most the Russians can expect to gain. The longer this war goes on the less advantage Russia has in terms of equipment. They have succeeded in mobilizing and unifying the Western world against them and Finland and Sweden and maybe even Ukraine will eventually join NATO because of this. They have woken Germany from its 30-year slumber and discredited and disgraced the peaceniks that have served their Russian purpose in the German parliament these last 3 decades. ExChancellor Gerhard Schroeder is now a pariah. But at the end of the day, this will be a war of attrition and peace will come with compromises for both sides. He is prepared to sacrifice more men and seems to have full control over his people. They serve him because they fear him more than love him though and morale in the Russian army is not high. Zelensky by contrast does not need to mobilize his people to fight because they are all doing that and he merely expresses their passion in his diatribes and directs it to the enemy. He is in the weaker position nation for the nation but he has more friends and arguably his friends are bigger and more militarily potent than either Russia or China. [/QUOTE]
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