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If Russia invades the Ukraine...
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<blockquote data-quote="mindlight" data-source="post: 76542646" data-attributes="member: 21246"><p>Keeping the uncertainty going is Putin's strategy to avoid Ukraine joining NATO as new members cannot be in conflict zones.</p><p></p><p>Even if he militarily defeats the Ukrainian army, which is a probable outcome of any conflict, I wonder if he would in fact occupy the whole country. He needs water from the Dnieper for Crimea and he needs the Eastern Republics which have a majority of Russians. He wants to increase the distance that the enemy must travel to invade Russia. That done he does not have to hold the other bits and could even deport those whom he might think will be part of the problem. Dividing the country is probably the long-term solution to this problem as people in Crimea and in the East do not want to be a part of the West and the West has no interest in being a part of Russia.</p><p></p><p>Trade is a two-edged sword as in the short to medium term Germany needs Russian gas for example. If Putin plays this wrong he could jeopardize billions of Euros of mutually beneficial trade between Europe and Russia but the West too would suffer from a trade war.</p><p></p><p>He could also decide to back off for now and come back when Biden is embroiled in some scandal or preoccupied with some domestic crisis. Putin has played the long game the last 8 years with the ongoing tensions and is unlikely to stop doing so now.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="mindlight, post: 76542646, member: 21246"] Keeping the uncertainty going is Putin's strategy to avoid Ukraine joining NATO as new members cannot be in conflict zones. Even if he militarily defeats the Ukrainian army, which is a probable outcome of any conflict, I wonder if he would in fact occupy the whole country. He needs water from the Dnieper for Crimea and he needs the Eastern Republics which have a majority of Russians. He wants to increase the distance that the enemy must travel to invade Russia. That done he does not have to hold the other bits and could even deport those whom he might think will be part of the problem. Dividing the country is probably the long-term solution to this problem as people in Crimea and in the East do not want to be a part of the West and the West has no interest in being a part of Russia. Trade is a two-edged sword as in the short to medium term Germany needs Russian gas for example. If Putin plays this wrong he could jeopardize billions of Euros of mutually beneficial trade between Europe and Russia but the West too would suffer from a trade war. He could also decide to back off for now and come back when Biden is embroiled in some scandal or preoccupied with some domestic crisis. Putin has played the long game the last 8 years with the ongoing tensions and is unlikely to stop doing so now. [/QUOTE]
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