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If Russia invades the Ukraine...
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<blockquote data-quote="eclipsenow" data-source="post: 76507675" data-attributes="member: 274355"><p>A full THIRD of Ukrainians have said they would be prepared to take up arms and join a resistance / insurgency. Putin doesn't seem ready to deploy a third of his army (over 320,000 soldiers) to put down that sized insurgency (ratio derived form American doctrines of soldiers to insurgent ratio). IF Russia invades and NATO isn't somehow dragged in (which could be VERY bad - as in think Terminator's Judgement Day), this is what I think will happen. Russia wins the war quickly, but then has to maintain the peace. But occupying Ukraine for Russia feels like occupying Iraq did for the Americans. It drags on and on, with no end in sight to the insurrection. Eventually, the cost is too high and Russia leaves. The costs are enormous. The war creates political upheaval back home. Eventually, Russia's shame means Putin is finally overturned. The people rise up to the point where they want true democracy instead. Navalny is released from prison and begins the long process of reform. Russian democratic institutions are empowered, and separation of powers restored. Courts and the rule of law are introduced. Finally - would Russia eventually join NATO. The EU? What would NATO's brief be then - defend against any aggression from China?</p><p></p><p>[MEDIA=youtube]UNIU6TRsRzk[/MEDIA]</p><p></p><p>[MEDIA=youtube]LJNtfyq3TDE[/MEDIA]</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="eclipsenow, post: 76507675, member: 274355"] A full THIRD of Ukrainians have said they would be prepared to take up arms and join a resistance / insurgency. Putin doesn't seem ready to deploy a third of his army (over 320,000 soldiers) to put down that sized insurgency (ratio derived form American doctrines of soldiers to insurgent ratio). IF Russia invades and NATO isn't somehow dragged in (which could be VERY bad - as in think Terminator's Judgement Day), this is what I think will happen. Russia wins the war quickly, but then has to maintain the peace. But occupying Ukraine for Russia feels like occupying Iraq did for the Americans. It drags on and on, with no end in sight to the insurrection. Eventually, the cost is too high and Russia leaves. The costs are enormous. The war creates political upheaval back home. Eventually, Russia's shame means Putin is finally overturned. The people rise up to the point where they want true democracy instead. Navalny is released from prison and begins the long process of reform. Russian democratic institutions are empowered, and separation of powers restored. Courts and the rule of law are introduced. Finally - would Russia eventually join NATO. The EU? What would NATO's brief be then - defend against any aggression from China? [MEDIA=youtube]UNIU6TRsRzk[/MEDIA] [MEDIA=youtube]LJNtfyq3TDE[/MEDIA] [/QUOTE]
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