Ok, so here is my current thought process....
Background
The jack pine budworm (Choristoneura pinus pinus) is the most important insect predator of jack pine trees, and tends to reproduce episodically with major outbreaks occurring every 8-12 years (McCullough 2000). Budworm moths lay eggs on pine needles in the late summer months. Eggs hatch one to two weeks later, and budworm larvae move into crevasses in the pine bark, where they overwinter (Robison et al. 1998). It has been observed that budworm moths tend to lay eggs on older jack pine needles rather than on younger needles (McCullough 2000), and that female budworm moths discriminate between needles based on cuticular wax, but the purpose of this discrimination is unknown.
Question: is ovipositing on older spruce needles an adaptive trait?
Hypotheses:
[FONT="]Older needles tend to be wider, longer, and stiffer than younger needles. In addition, older needles tend to have a thinner cuticle than young needles, which may allow for better adhesion by egg masses. I hypothesize that eggs that are laid on older pine needles are less likely to be washed away by rain and wind than eggs that are laid on softer, younger pine needles. As such, in adverse weather conditions moths that oviposit on older needles are selected for, since their larvae are more likely to survive adverse weather.[/FONT]
[FONT="]Predictions:[/FONT]
[FONT="]If ovipositing on older needles is an adaptive behaviour to ensure egg survival in adverse weather conditions, then after rainfall there should be more eggs retained on older needles than on younger needles.[/FONT]
[FONT="]Methods:[/FONT]
[FONT="] A young jack pine stand will be chosen for the study. 100 jack pine trees will be chosen from the stand at random. A random branch will be selected from the mid-upper crown of each tree. Needles will be removed from branches to yield four treatments: only four, three, two, and one year-old foliage remaining (jackpine trees typically keep about 4 years worth of foliage on their branches, so I have about 4 ages of needles to work with). One adult female moth and three adult male moths will be placed into a branch sleeve cage, which will then be placed around the treatment branches. Once ovipositing has occurred, sleeve cages will be removed. Branches will be collected, and number off eggs laid will be recorded for each branch. Then, branches from each treatment will be washed with water for a specific amount of time. Eggs will be counted again after washing, and percentage remaining will be recorded.[/FONT]
[FONT="]Anticipated Results[/FONT]
[FONT="] If the hypothesis is supported, I predict that a higher percentage of eggs laid on older needles will remain after washing than those laid on younger foliage (Fig. 2).[/FONT]
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As for the washing of the branches, it just seems too artificial. I wonder if there is a way to make the project a little more natural. Ideally, I would like to count the number of eggs before a rainstorm, and count the number of eggs after a rainstorm, and see if older foliage retains more eggs. However, in practice it is quite difficult to count those tiny eggs in the field.