Human Population

[OldWiseGuy]

But as mentioned in the other 2-3 topics on this subject you can't get to the population of egypt/china/south america and such imediatly after the flood. We don't even have to talk about to now.

The flood may have occured farther back in history, or, science hasn't properly dated those civilizations correctly. My model has a repopulation of 8 billion people from three couples in a pretty short time span.

 

[USincognito]

What did I do wrong?

Most importantly, your calculation doesn't take into account:
The Green Revolution
Eradication of Smallpox
Vaccinations and preventative efforts for other diseases
The world-wide baby boom following WWII

And that's just for your lifetime in the 20th Century.

 

[Nostromo]

A conservative model of six children per family repeated every 50 years would have a worldwide population of nearly 8 billion people only 800 years after the flood. This would account for many highly populated civilizations worldwide. Regarding diversity, that was carried across the flood in the genes of Noah's sons and their wives.

Assuming you and your wife were both of some Middle Eastern ethnicity, how many generations does it take for your descendants to look Chinese, Black African & Scandinavian?

You just created a model that allows for 8 billion people by 3700BC, doesn't that show you that just popping in any numbers is pretty pointless? You need a model that fits the evidence.

P.S. How did you get 8 billion using that model? I can't get anywhere close

 

[Mystman]

I'm not a mathematician but I'd like to figure out how the creation model started with 8 people and arrived at today's current population growth? Suppose we have an average rate of 2.5 children in a family, as a result that would yeild 6.5 billion (I think it's about 6.8 now) people today. But from the evolution model it is believe that humans has been around since 1 million years ago, nonetheless there must be a growth from that point, so if we assume the same rate we would get more than the number of electrons in the universe. Using the biblical number that make sense. But how do we work around the birth/death rates? Anybody have an idea? What are your thoughts on this?

First: I'm bored.

Second:according to the only "actual" data points (that wikipedia knows about..), the world population doubled between 1960 and 2000, so in just 40 years:

World population - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Using the reasoning of "hey, if we have such a growth rate then, we should have such a growth rate all the time". It's been ~4000 years since the flood, so that's 100*40 years, or the world population has doubled 100 times since then.

2^100 = 1.267.650.600.000.000.000.000.000.000.000

Since they started of with 8 people, according to the "constant growth" model, the current world population would have to be.

~10.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000

Since it isn't, we can safely assume that the constant growth model makes no sense =)

 

[marktheblake]

Joking aside, it's clearly a mathematical impossibility that we started with only 8 people in 2500 BC, especially when you compare the known populations of cities in various periods.

Agreed, obviously a linear population growth modem does not stack up. Also assuming typical family sizes of 2.4 children it still does not stack up, so we need to consider what is the norm back then plus what Genesis itself says.

The major factor is the long ages- Noah 950, his son Shem 500, and from their declining gradually. This allows for having much larger families, a higher rate of population growth and greater accumulation of knowledge.
(though I would concede that would be very tough on the lady to have a large amount of kids)

Gen 9:1 "be fruitful and multiply", so i am sure they did. After all they had no Telly.

Gen 10 tells us that Noah had 16 grandsons. I am not confident that is precise, possibly its just a mention of the important ones (patriarchs of the relevent clans) but may we assume that there was 16 grandaughters also, and that would be about 50 years after the flood plus or minus 10. The population is now 40 people.

So if we consider that each couple has 10 children, what would the population be at 100 years post flood, then 200?
(sorry, i have run out of fingers). For sake of argument dont worry about attrition rates in this narrow window, we are all one happy family.

I'm simply postulating that there was a massive population boom early, (the same as pre flood) until a stage of critical mass was reached and then we had the ebbs and flows that we know about as we enter the times of recorded history.

 

[Frumious Bandersnatch]

Agreed, obviously a linear population growth modem does not stack up. Also assuming typical family sizes of 2.4 children it still does not stack up, so we need to consider what is the norm back then plus what Genesis itself says.

The major factor is the long ages- Noah 950, his son Shem 500, and from their declining gradually. This allows for having much larger families, a higher rate of population growth and greater accumulation of knowledge.
(though I would concede that would be very tough on the lady to have a large amount of kids)

Gen 9:1 "be fruitful and multiply", so i am sure they did. After all they had no Telly.

Gen 10 tells us that Noah had 16 grandsons. I am not confident that is precise, possibly its just a mention of the important ones (patriarchs of the relevent clans) but may we assume that there was 16 grandaughters also, and that would be about 50 years after the flood plus or minus 10. The population is now 40 people.

So if we consider that each couple has 10 children, what would the population be at 100 years post flood, then 200?
(sorry, i have run out of fingers). For sake of argument dont worry about attrition rates in this narrow window, we are all one happy family.

I'm simply postulating that there was a massive population boom early, (the same as pre flood) until a stage of critical mass was reached and then we had the ebbs and flows that we know about as we enter the times of recorded history.

According to Answers in Genesis the tower of Babel was built about 106 years after the flood.

Chapter 28: Was the Dispersion at Babel a Real Event? - Answers in Genesis

So are you saying that 200 people were busy building a massive tower intended to reach heaven? According to the story all different human languages arose when God "confused the language" at the Tower of Babel. Does it make sense to you that the 6,000 known human languages arose from 200 people 4,300 years ago?

By the way all these families must have been the result of first cousin marriages, if not between brothers and sisters, so how did they give rise to all the varied humans on earth?

 

[Belk]

Agreed, obviously a linear population growth modem does not stack up. Also assuming typical family sizes of 2.4 children it still does not stack up, so we need to consider what is the norm back then plus what Genesis itself says.

The major factor is the long ages- Noah 950, his son Shem 500, and from their declining gradually. This allows for having much larger families, a higher rate of population growth and greater accumulation of knowledge.
(though I would concede that would be very tough on the lady to have a large amount of kids)

Gen 9:1 "be fruitful and multiply", so i am sure they did. After all they had no Telly.

Gen 10 tells us that Noah had 16 grandsons. I am not confident that is precise, possibly its just a mention of the important ones (patriarchs of the relevent clans) but may we assume that there was 16 grandaughters also, and that would be about 50 years after the flood plus or minus 10. The population is now 40 people.

So if we consider that each couple has 10 children, what would the population be at 100 years post flood, then 200?
(sorry, i have run out of fingers). For sake of argument dont worry about attrition rates in this narrow window, we are all one happy family.

I'm simply postulating that there was a massive population boom early, (the same as pre flood) until a stage of critical mass was reached and then we had the ebbs and flows that we know about as we enter the times of recorded history.

Are we also assuming a high infant mortality rate and greater risk of medical complications from giving birth?

 

[LifeToTheFullest!]

The flood may have occured farther back in history, or, science hasn't properly dated those civilizations correctly. My model has a repopulation of 8 billion people from three couples in a pretty short time span.

Since there is zero empiracal evidence to support a world wide flood, you're free to concoct any scenario you choose.

 

[OldWiseGuy]

Since there is zero empiracal evidence to support a world wide flood, you're free to concoct any scenario you choose.

Thanks, I will. Next to bowhunting it's my favorite pasttime.

 

[LifeToTheFullest!]

Thanks, I will. Next to bowhunting it's my favorite pasttime.

Both of which are easily explained by human evolution.

 

[OldWiseGuy]

P.S. How did you get 8 billion using that model? I can't get anywhere close

I did have to change the frequency of childbirths to 1 each year for 6 years instead of 1 every other year for 12 years. That way each new generation is ready to bear children within the first 6 years of each subsequent 50 year period. I also didn't add the last generation of parents, who would still be alive at the end of each 50 year period (assuming a lifespan of 100 years at that time). That would add another 1/3 to the total population of any 50 year time period..........So starting with 1 couple (say Shem and his wife); having 6 kids in the first six years. Starting in year 25 and continuing through year 31 their kids marry and start similiar families. By the end of the first 50 year period Shem, Japheth, and Ham and their wifes have produced 108 children that are themselves ready to begin families. This figures to 54 couples that start the second 50 year period having 6 kids each and those kids in turn starting 6 kid families at the beginning of the third 50 year period. The model has the population increasing by a multiple of 3x each 50 year period, not including the previous generation of parents that would still be alive. I'm just multipying 54 x 3 x 16th power (not correctly stated but you get the idea).

 

[marktheblake]

According to Answers in Genesis the tower of Babel was built about 106 years after the flood.

I didn't know that. Did you also look for an article they probably have that has an estimate of what they think the population was at that time- that would have been a helpful contribution, rather than postulate your own estimate.

So are you saying that 200 people were busy building a massive tower intended to reach heaven?

I am simply projecting population growth from 8 people over 50,100,200 years. In any case I also think that your estimate of 200 people after 100 years is extremely narrow. Thats at least 5 generations post flood, when the first generation yielded at least 16 grand sons.

Are we also assuming a high infant mortality rate and greater risk of medical complications from giving birth?

Feel free to go ahead if you like, i cant even do simple maths let alone factor in such variances that are completely unknown. However it is my view that such factors would not have applied to Noah's family.

Since there is zero empiracal evidence to support a world wide flood, you're free to concoct any scenario you choose.

Did you read the Original post, its just a question of simple population growth modelling.

 

[Frumious Bandersnatch]

I didn't know that. Did you also look for an article they probably have that has an estimate of what they think the population was at that time- that would have been a helpful contribution, rather than postulate your own estimate.

No, they don't want people to think about details like how not nearly enough people could have been around 100 years after the flood to build the Tower of Babel. If people thought about details like that they might realize the whole story is a myth and stop sending money to Anwers in Genesis.

I am simply projecting population growth from 8 people over 50,100,200 years. In any case I also think that your estimate of 200 people after 100 years is extremely narrow. Thats at least 5 generations post flood, when the first generation yielded at least 16 grand sons.

200 people was your estimate. (Post 45).

 

[Nostromo]

I didn't know that. Did you also look for an article they probably have that has an estimate of what they think the population was at that time- that would have been a helpful contribution, rather than postulate your own estimate.

From Answers in Genesis:

"We know from the Bible, however, that around 2500 BC (4,500 years ago) the worldwide Flood reduced the world population to eight people. But if we assume that the population doubles every 150 years, we see, again, that starting with only Noah and his family in 2500 BC, 4,500 years is more than enough time for the present population to reach 6.5 billion."

I'm not sure if that is consensus, but doubling after 150 years seems unlikely to fit.

 

[MichaelHelp]

Do any of these mathematical calculations take into account that the reproducing population is never 100%?

 

[Nostromo]

If 100% of people don't reproduce then you've got an even bigger problem.

(That's better )

 

[Mystman]

I am simply projecting population growth from 8 people over 50,100,200 years. In any case I also think that your estimate of 200 people after 100 years is extremely narrow. Thats at least 5 generations post flood, when the first generation yielded at least 16 grand sons.

Just for giggles, let's calculate the max population after the flood.

I dunno actually how many women where on board, but let's start the calculation with 1, and at the end we just multiply.

If we dump all other reasonable restriction on population growth (food, disease, etc...), there remains one important restriction: basic female biology. A woman can produce ~1 baby per year, and she can start having them when she's ~12. But since half of all children will be boys (pretty useless, since Noah can just impregnate all his daughters), a woman will only produce a girl every 2 years.

So if at year 0 after the flood, there is 1 fertile woman, she can produce a girl. In year 2, she will produce another girl. In year 4, 6, 8, 10, another. In year 12, the firstborn girl also get's a girl, so we have 2 new girls.. in year 14, we get 3 girls. In year 16, 4. In 18, 5. In 20, 6. In 22, 7. In year 24, the 2 girls born in year 12 also "start production", so the total number of new girls will be 9. In year 26, the 3 girls born in year 14 start production, so the total number of new girls is 12.

Or in c++, where we're taking 2 years as a single timestep:

int Noah(){
	int births[51]={1};
	int totalgirls[51]={1};
	
	for(int i = 1; i<=50; i++){
		births[i]=births[i-1]; //at least as many births as last period
		if(i>6) births[i]+=births[i-6]; //adding the girls who were born 12 years ago
		totalgirls[i] = totalgirls[i-1]+births[i];
		cerr << endl << "Year " << 2*(i) << ", " << births[i] << " births, " << totalgirls[i] << " total.";
	}
}

Which would make for a total of 466852 people after 100 years (although the fast majority of these would be underage; only 103598 girls are old enough to get kids at year 100. The number of adults (18+) are the number of births in the year 94: 62721.

Multiply by the number of adult woman on the ark (say.. 4?), and you'd get 250884 adult men by the time the tower of Babel is supposed to be build. That's the absolute maximum. If you add in real world factors (e.g., people dieing...), the population size will be drastically lower.

But then again.. Noah only had 16 grandsons? That would make it safe to say that he wasn't using this reproduction scheme =)

edit: yes, I'm bored.

 

[AV1611VET]

I dunno actually how many women where on board, but let's start the calculation with 1, and at the end we just multiply.

There were 8 people alive on the earth after the Flood: Noah, Shem, Ham, Japheth and their wives.

Does you calculation take into account their long life-spans?

 

[OldWiseGuy]

Both of which are easily explained by human evolution.

But I didn't evolve into shooting a compound bow. I still shoot a recurve. That alone blows evolution out of the water.

 

[AV1611VET]

But I didn't evolve into shooting a compound bow. I still shoot a recurve. That alone blows evolution out of the water.

The 2011 Bear Carnage compound bow:

$850.00​