How long will it take

[dogs4thewin]

For a winner to be declared in next week's election?

 

[JosephZ]

We should know the winner by early Wednesday.

 

[GoldenBoy89]

It depends on how quickly the loser will accept the results.

 

[dogs4thewin]

It depends on how quickly the loser will accept the results.

no I meant how long before it is called. I do not care if the person oes not actually consede.

 

[dogs4thewin]

We should know the winner by early Wednesday.

Last time it took four days, so I am not sure of that. Particularly sense some swing states are not allowed to begin counting until AFTER the polls close even if the vote was cast/received weeks earlier. Some states even allow for ballots to be received late as long as they are postmarked by election day in a razor thin race that could make a difference.

 

[JosephZ]

Last time it took four days, so I am not sure of that. Particularly sense some swing states are not allowed to begin counting until AFTER the polls close even if the vote was cast/received weeks earlier. Some states even allow for ballots to be received late as long as they are postmarked by election day in a razor thin race that could make a difference.

Michigan, Nevada, Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina will now allow mail in ballots to be counted in advance of election day, so it shouldn't take as long this year.

 

[dogs4thewin]

Michigan, Nevada, Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina will now allow mail in ballots to be counted in advance of election day, so it shouldn't take as long this year.

I also noticed upon loking it up that while PA (the largest swing state by EV does not allow for counting before election day they DO allow counting to begin that morning as opposed to when polls close.

 

[durangodawood]

no I meant how long before it is called. I do not care if the person oes not actually consede.

Interesting question.

What do you think are the implications are of the various possibilities?

 

[dogs4thewin]

Interesting question.

What do you think are the implications are of the various possibilities?

Of what possibiles?

 

[durangodawood]

Of what possibiles?

Of how long it could take for a winner to be called.

 

[dogs4thewin]

Of how long it could take for a winner to be called.

Well, I would not be shocked if there is violence no matter who the winner is.

 

[JosephZ]

I also noticed upon loking it up that while PA (the largest swing state by EV does not allow for counting before election day they DO allow counting to begin that morning as opposed to when polls close.

I didn't know that about Pennsylvania.

If Pennsylvania gets called on election night, we will have a pretty good idea of who's going to win. If Michigan is called for Trump, he will almost be certain to win.

 

[dogs4thewin]

I didn't know that about Pennsylvania.

If Pennsylvania gets called on election night, we will have a pretty good idea of who's going to win. If Michigan is called for Trump, he will almost be certain to win.

View attachment 356538

so according to this forcast Trump has a 56% chance of winning? Am I understanding that correctly?

 

[JosephZ]

so according to this forcast Trump has a 56% chance of winning? Am I understanding that correctly?

That's what the Economist election forecast was showing yesterday. It's now even.

New polls reset the presidential race to a dead heat

Kamala Harris’s probability of victory rose by six percentage points in today’s update, making the race a dead heat.

 

[Bradskii]

From here: Most swing state voters believe Trump will not accept defeat if he loses election

'A majority of voters in swing states do not believe Donald Trump will accept defeat if he loses next week’s presidential election and fear that his supporters will turn to violence in an attempt to install him in power, a new poll suggests.'

 

[essentialsaltes]

If battleground states clearly go one way or the other, the Associated Press may be able to call the race relatively early. Official results will take longer based on state timelines.
If vote thresholds in key battleground states are close enough to trigger a recount, it could take some time before AP can call the race.
Lawsuits and recount requests filed by the campaigns could also delay matters.

 

[dogs4thewin]

From here: Most swing state voters believe Trump will not accept defeat if he loses election

'A majority of voters in swing states do not believe Donald Trump will accept defeat if he loses next week’s presidential election and fear that his supporters will turn to violence in an attempt to install him in power, a new poll suggests.'

I live in a swing state (GA) and I would not be shcked if there were violence one way or the other.

 

[dogs4thewin]

If battleground states clearly go one way or the other, the Associated Press may be able to call the race relatively early. Official results will take longer based on state timelines.
If vote thresholds in key battleground states are close enough to trigger a recount, it could take some time before AP can call the race.
Lawsuits and recount requests filed by the campaigns could also delay matters.

I noticed in the swing state of GA with two days still to go of early voting probably at LEAST 40% have already cast ballots in some counties it is better than half and in my county for example it lacks literaly .05% from being half so millions are casting their vote early and GA now allows for counting to begin before election day so it should not take days on end for those 16 EVs.

 

[essentialsaltes]

As a recent historical note from 2020, we may have to distinguish when an authoritative and correct result is declared, and when an authoritative and correct result is accepted or believed.

Some did not accept the media reports, preferring to wait until states had officially certified elections.
After the states had certified their elections, confirming the media reports, some did not accept the results, preferring to wait until the state electors had voted.
After the electors had voted, some did not accept the results, preferring to wait until the January 6th joint session of Congress where the Vice President would tally and certify the electoral votes.
After the results were certified, some did not accept the results, preferring to wait to see who would occupy the White House on January 21st.
After Biden occupied the White House, some still do not accept the results of the 2020 elections.