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Going Beyond Post-Normal Science in Oxidation of Hydrocarbons

Heissonear

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Many people are highly serious that mankind must stop using natural oil and gas from underground reservoirs on Earth.

Many people have made up their minds that the manmade CO2 emissions released from humans burning extracted oil and gas is causing Earth to increase in global temperature beyond past Earth history of natutal cycles in Earth's atmospheric temperature.

Many say the "science is settled".

So they think and voice by opinion rather than evidence based scientific fact.

However, there is no evidence for Anthropogenic Induced Global Warming through CO2 emissions. None.

There is science that CO2 absorbs select wavelengths of electromagnetic spectra and is thereby a Greenhouse Gas that as its concentration in the atmosphere increases "should" or "can" slow the rate of longwave infrared and the like energy tranfer from Earth into space.

But in the real world of day and night of constant radiation flux, ocean and atmospheric mass circulation gyre from equator to poles, the heat and energy mass transfer of Earth-magnitude convection and conduction thermodynamics as intense integrals in energy and heat build up and transfer, along with natural cyclrs and variations of solar radiation flux of Grand Maximums and Grand Minimums, the influence of hundreds to thousands of ppm CO2 in Earth's atmosphere is experimentally and observationally unknown.

The issue if Manmade CO2 emissions will warm Earth past natural variability is very, very complex.

As the article below presents, "Post-Normal Science" was reckoned as a means to handle such highly complex issues where straight and clear answers can be obtained over a reasonable period of investigative time.

But to "already know the answer" to this complex issue is "Beyond" the intention of applying Post-Normal and Normal Science.

Plain and clear. Those who promote mankind has a problem that must be avoided and fixed are in essence only giving opinion, even scientific opinion, and can claim no more.

Peer reviewed publications don't prove anything or have any authority in what the answer to the highly complex issue is in actual fact. That is why the properly stated publications present terms such as may, or could, or might.

It has been blogs and news reporting that have made the statements "it's affirmative", "it is true beyond doubt", and the like "pending major problem coming upon man on Earth".

Take all of the "extteme droughts", "extreme hurricanes", man-induced desertification, man-induced melting of snow and ice at the poles, as what they are - opinions.

The isdue is too complex for anyone or any group to understand and realistically know.

It is that plain and simple. We hear mere opinions of Catastrophic problems due to CO2 emissions in Earth's atmosphere. Mere opinions.


"Made to Order: Science

Guest essay by Charles G. Battig, M.D.

"A flurry of recent publication activity on the health impacts of carbon dioxide by the catastrophic climate change community is evidence that it has now moved beyond post-normal science. That was the philosophical answer to traditional science founded on rational hypotheses, reproducible experimentation, and impartial confirmation of results. Post-normal science was to be the answer to really difficult research problems; it would apply in cases where “facts are uncertain, values in dispute, stakes high and decisions urgent,” according to its advocates Funtowicz and Ravetz, 1991.

Coincidentally, these same attributes accurately describe the status of climate research.

Loosening the traditional standards of acceptable proof to include some postulating and science conclusions based on consensus and opinion would expand the universe of available answers desperately desired by governing bureaucrats and environmental activists.

"Financial linkages between E.P.A. funded researchers and their reported influence on E.P.A. policy advocacy is a step beyond, and vindicates President Eisenhower’s admonition (1961):

“The prospect of domination of the nation’s scholars by Federal employment, project allocations, and the power of money is ever present – and is gravely to be regarded. Yet, in holding scientific research and discovery in respect, as we should, we must also be alert to the equal and opposite danger that public policy could itself become the captive of a scientific-technological elite.”

"The community of man-made, climate-change catastrophe advocates has been smarting for lack of catastrophes. Droughts, tornadoes, sea level rise acceleration, coral reef sinking have all failed to increase dramatically on schedule, even as atmospheric carbon dioxide has increased about 10 per cent over the past eighteen years. Most annoying to the alarmists has been the plateau in global atmospheric temperatures over this same time period. They have proffered an array of imaginative excuses for the lack of observed global atmospheric temperature rise.

"No catastrophes means bad news for the United Nations plans for its Paris conference on climate mitigation and wealth transfer later this year. It would seem even more outrageous to the public at large to pay for a non-problem. The transfer of wealth from the developed nations to the less developed nations to combat a non-existent climate problem becomes that much more embarrassing without the drama attendant to scary numbers portending global disaster.

"Just-in-time advocacy science has now produced a paper which claims to have the data to show that there has been no pause in the global temperature. The global fever has been there unabated all these eighteen years. It was hiding in a variety of data sets just waiting to be found, much like Michelangelo’s David hiding in a block of raw marble. Singer, Michaels, and others have analyzed the claims of the paper, and unlike David, what has been revealed is not a thing of scientific beauty, but a construct of dubious data doctoring portending that climate disaster is right on schedule.

"I propose a new label for science papers which attempt to challenge established concepts by refashioning data banks to achieve a desired conclusion. Borrowing from the fashion world, I term such science efforts as “bespoke science.” Made-to-order…made to measure…made to fit the desired outcome by selective data trimming, adjusting, and stitching together. Be ready to see much more tailoring of data to fit the U.N. agenda as December approaches.


Source: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/06/07/bespoke-sciencemade-to-order-science/
 

amanuensis63

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Many people are highly serious that mankind must stop using natural oil and gas from underground reservoirs on Earth.

And many of those same people actually understand geology and chemistry! For instance they know that in releasing this stored carbon from fossil fuels they are putting it back into the atmosphere at a rate MUCH HIGHER than it was sequestered in the first place and it is excess carbon that has been out of "circulation" for millions of years in many cases.

Many people have made up their minds that the manmade CO2 emissions released from humans burning extracted oil and gas is causing Earth to increase in global temperature beyond past Earth history of natutal cycles in Earth's atmospheric temperature.

And, indeed, there is plenty of science (you've been shown) to support that hypothesis.

So they think and voice by opinion rather than evidence based scientific fact.

That is why people like me, who understand chemistry and geology often respond to your points with factual data. Usually, however, because I introduce factual data on geology and chemistry you refuse to address any of those points.

You should learn some of the chemistry and geology involved so you wouldn't have to rely on "opinions" so much.

However, there is no evidence for Anthropogenic Induced Global Warming through CO2 emissions. None.

Only if you ignore the data that has been shown you ad nauseam on this forum. To say there is "none" is disingenuous. What you mean is: there is no data that you understand or accept. That is very different from saying that there is no data.

But in the real world of day and night of constant radiation flux, ocean and atmospheric mass circulation gyre from equator to poles, the heat and energy mass transfer of Earth-magnitude convection and conduction thermodynamics as intense integrals in energy and heat build up and transfer, along with natural cyclrs and variations of solar radiation flux of Grand Maximums and Grand Minimums, the influence of hundreds to thousands of ppm CO2 in Earth's atmosphere is experimentally and observationally unknown.

This is where you show your lack of science training. While it is not perfectly known, it is estimated. That is how science works. That is why the models require vast computing resources because the systems are complex.

To simply assume (because of a personal bias) that because it is complex it is unknown is the height of hubris, and, an opinion, not based on science.
 
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eclipsenow

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Joseph Fourier discovered the heat-trapping properties of CO2 nearly 2 centuries ago. The rest is mathematics and observation tracking where the extra heat goes. Plenty of evidence, but WUWT fears science is all communism.
 
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eclipsenow

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Is there anything to this beyond bland assertions and sophistry? I stopped reading after like the 5th paragraph.
Woah, I hear you! Deep down in my soul. Just words, words, words, noise drowned out by the climate induced hurricane.
 
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Heissonear

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Do I hear opinions about Climate Change?

When someone only has small pieces of knowledge about a complex issue they can only equate opinions, having no ability to state what is happening over time to the Earth, including experimentally and through what we can observe.

People only have opinions about what CO2 emissions will do to Earth.

The scientific peer review process of technical literature does nothing to solve this "Post Normal" problem, nor those who are going beyond "Post Normal" science derived understanding of what is and will happen.
 
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The Cadet

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Yea, you cannot skim over what needs to be learned about a matter that exposes your faulted CAGW position, that all!

Going beyond "Post Normal" is where you be. Look around!
Nah, it's just that my limit on self-righteous content-free screeds is around 4-5 paragraphs; if you have not made a salient point by then, I just don't care. Care to posit a TL;DR version? :)
 
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eclipsenow

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People only have opinions about what CO2 emissions will do to Earth.
I didn't realise this was an opinion.
pair_example_medres_850px.jpg


Or this.
1.jpg
 
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Heissonear

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Why present selective information, and present as not natural?

Look what happened over the last 400 or so years in Alaska.

Miles of glacial retreat in Alaska in the 1800's, after miles of advancement in the 1600's and 1700's.

What's new or different about natural variability?

Brainwashed on CO2 changing the climate and glaciers?

image-3-1.jpg
 
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eclipsenow

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As always, the science is more complex than the simplified hogwash from sceptics. Indeed, it appears some glaciers increased in size during the Medieval Warm Period, and that there are other factors that can effect glaciers other than just temperature. But of course, today's global temperature event is gradually winning out over these other effects. more below.

****
The Medieval Warm Period (MWP) was a period of supposedly warm climate during the early part of the past thousand years. How long it lasted, what areas were affected and even if it existed have been questioned. Some areas seem to have been affected more by changes in precipitation than in temperature.

A study has been recently published which sheds new light on this debate. Koch & Clague, in their paper Extensive glaciers in northwest North America during Medieval time, provide new evidence showing that several glaciers in western North America and elsewhere in the world advanced during Medieval time and that some of these glaciers achieved extents similar to those at the peak of the Little Ice Age, a very cold period many hundreds of years later.

What the authors' research finds is that these glacial responses could not have happened in a world with a climate similar to ours today. Indeed, recent studies (here and here) by Mauri Pelto show that glaciers without a consistent accumulation zone (where the glacier "packs on weight") will not survive. This helps explain why today's glaciers (responding to today's warming world) are retreating to their smallest areas in many thousands of years, exposing their longer histories in the form of buried datable material for scientists like Koch & Clague to decode.

What this means for the MWP is that if summers were as warm then as today, glaciers globally should have retreated significantly. Changes affecting glaciers around the world require global effects. Since that did not happen, global temperatures then could only have been warm for a part of the MWP.

So what else could explain these glacier advances in a supposedly warm world? The most likely answer is that changes in factors besides temperatures played a significant role. Koch & Clague find a linked response between:

  • increased winter precipitation
  • changes in solar activity
  • changes in the El Niño/La Niña (a Pacific Ocean weather pattern affecting the entire globe) in response to variations in solar activity
As a result of these linked responses, Koch & Clague suggest that glaciers were able to advance during the MWP because warm regional areas were interrupted by periods of cooling, interspersed with variable patterns of precipitation. Given the length and breadth of the information we now know, Koch & Clague make a substantial case that the MWP should be more aptly named the Medieval Climate Anomaly.
http://www.skepticalscience.com/Icing_The_MWP.html
 
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Heissonear

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People die naturally. Ergo, we can make absolutely no claim that the people who died in WWII didn't die of natural causes.
Classic example of stating "facts" without enough information. Trying to make absolute conclusions and statements about complex matters are doing that - in pharmaceutical to climatology. Realtime.

The "Post Normal Science" concept being investigated, and is trying to address what people have done and are still doing to overly complex matters.

In Climatology it has lead to "beyond" the Post Normal Science position of recognizing the vast uncertainty!

CAGW Alarmists are not addressing the vast uncertainty! Such is being exposed.
 
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amanuensis63

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When someone only has small pieces of knowledge about a complex issue they can only equate opinions, having no ability to state what is happening over time to the Earth, including experimentally and through what we can observe.

You are RIGHT!
And as always, Heissonear, I'm here to help you with ANY questions you have on geology or chemistry.

The scientific peer review process of technical literature does nothing to solve this "Post Normal" problem, nor those who are going beyond "Post Normal" science derived understanding of what is and will happen.

This is the kind of statement usually made by folks who have either never been through peer review or have their junk science rejected and they can't figure out why.
 
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eclipsenow

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The "Post Normal Science" concept being investigated, and is trying to address what people have done and are still doing to overly complex matters.
That's just funny. In my experience, sceptics are the ones who simplify a complex story to get CO2 off the hook!
EG: "The Climate has changed before."
EG: "It's the sun."
EG: "It's natural variability."
EG: "The temperatures changed before the CO2 in the ice age cycle, therefore it's not CO2 as a driver, is it?"
There are elements of truth in all of these. Yes, the climate has changed before, the sun has cycles, there is some natural variability especially in the short term, and temps did change before the CO2 in the ice age cycle. Yet climate science remains intact! It's the sceptics that simplify. I'd like to see just one example you can prove where what you call 'alarmist' science has simplified a more complex story. Just one. Go for your life. Prove this is a thing!
 
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eclipsenow

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We are talking about what did happen by observations

33_02_08_11_9_33_15_14251162.jpeg



It is called Natural Variability - not as some present as CO2 emissions induced glacial retreat.

I notice you seem to focus exclusively on Glacier Bay? Could it just be that this particular glacier has local climatic reasons for the way it behaves? Got some glaciers from, say, Asia, or Europe, or South America, to compare this to? (Please note that glacier volumes started to increase as we fogged up the planet with foul sulphurous unclean coal flues, actually blocking out a tiny fraction of incoming sunlight. Basically, burning coal in a really dirty way works about as well as SPICE - see my signature - except has lots of health impacts). It's a great big planet, yet you always come back to this particular glacier. Why is that? Maybe the trend below?;):p
GlobalGlacierVolumeChange.jpg
 
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