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Global warming--the Data, and serious debate

Chalnoth

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As a veteran of one of these type debates with one of the principal players, I present

The Four Horsemen of the Thaumaturgy Apocalypse:

1. America has had it too good for too long. It is time for the United States to lead the world to the altar of Climate Change even though China and India are perfectly willing to sit back and continue to dump tons of carbon emissions into the air while rolling on the floor laughing their rear-ends off watching us destroy our economy in the process.
China, at least, has promised to enact similar reforms if we pass reform such as cap-and-trade. It would be relatively easy to pressure India to also pass similar reforms, and Europe would also very likely follow.

2. The maxim “Only those Scientist whose expertise bears directly on the issue at hand are real Scientist” is as effective a barrier to discussion as that formed by the equation E=MC2 is to exceeding the speed of light.
When 95%+ of the scientists who work in the field in question agree on a matter, you can be reasonably certain they are correct. Now, obviously, if you want to investigate further, you're welcome to it, and the information is (by large) quite public. But it is really silly to, say, listen to a person whose expertise (if any!) lies in an area very different from climate change in lieu of those whose expertise is climate change.

3. We in the science community will take your money you ignorant hicks but don’t for one second think you get to question what we do with it. What, you think we live in a free society?
Questioning is fine. Questioning is the essence of science. But for questioning to be in any way useful, the questioner needs to understand the science. The problem is that climate denialists don't. They ignore wide swaths of evidence. They fail to understand the arguments. In short, they just don't have anything of value to offer the scientific community. They're just political shills championing a destructive cause.

Dispelled by one rational thought:

Posted by grmorton:

But, if one is to make public policy off of the data, one should first know what the data is.

Huh? Well, if you're curious, by all means, look it up!
 
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Cabal

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As a veteran of one of these type debates with one of the principal players, I present

The Four Horsemen of the Thaumaturgy Apocalypse:

1. America has had it too good for too long. It is time for the United States to lead the world to the altar of Climate Change even though China and India are perfectly willing to sit back and continue to dump tons of carbon emissions into the air while rolling on the floor laughing their rear-ends off watching us destroy our economy in the process.

2. The maxim “Only those Scientist whose expertise bears directly on the issue at hand are real Scientist” is as effective a barrier to discussion as that formed by the equation E=MC2 is to exceeding the speed of light.

3. We in the science community will take your money you ignorant hicks but don’t for one second think you get to question what we do with it. What, you think we live in a free society?

4. Trust us, we are scientist. (And the angels sing!)

Dispelled by one rational thought:

Posted by grmorton:

But, if one is to make public policy off of the data, one should first know what the data is.

Gawron, while I haven't been following this thread in minute detail, I think that's a somewhat unfair depiction of Thaumaturgy's contribution to this thread.
 
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Gawron

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Perhaps. But as stated, about 18 months or so ago I participated in a debate on this subject with Thaumaturgy. My four points were taken from comments he made then, and I thought more revealing than any statistical argument presented. Some of those comments have been repeated here.

In response to Chalnoth's post, my point about questioning wasn't in regard to questioning science. It was directed at climate change policy, and again, a comment Thaumaturgy made in the other debate.
 
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Saving Hawaii

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Saving Hawaii

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Nice graph, I made one of my own demonstrating CO2 rise (per Mauna Loa - I'm assuming that whoever made your graph was using that data set as well) and the very same HadCRUT3v temperature data set that's in your graph.

attachment.php


Not as pretty (I'm not paid to do this, nor do I have nice software for making graphs), but it sure does look a lot different than yours does. Can you guess why?

There's actually four reasons. The first two aren't a problem; he used monthly data (or something similar) whereas I used annual data. Using annual data made my day a lot easier and isn't a problem at all considering that we're looking for multi-year trends (and even more importantly multi-decadal trends). I also smoothed my yearly temperature data with a very basic five-year smoothing technique (add up the year in question, the two years prior, the two years after, and divide by five). Once again that makes my graph a little less messy and more useful for somebody wanting to observe a long-term trend, but it's not inherently misleading. Neither of these two techniques would create the huge apparent differences between your graph and mine.

There are two other major differences between your graph and mine. Can you guess what those might be? Neither of them are honest tricks. Your graph cheated to make it look like there's no connection, while mine cheated to strengthen the parallels. I'm certain that some of our more savvy posters will be able to tell right away what I did (and hence what the guy who created your graph did). As a skeptic though, can you?

Nothing? No 'skeptic' can explain how my graph was completely misleading? What kind of 'skeptics' are you?
 
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Saving Hawaii

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Still no answer?

Both of these graphs are inherently misleading. There's two tricks involved that make both of these graphs lead the viewer to a false conclusions. You provided somebody else's graph and I created my own. We used the exact same data, but they look completely different. I used the exact same tricks that were used in your graph in my own. What two tricks are these?

You're a skeptic, right?

temp.jpg


121236d1267443326-graph-9-.jpg


I've admitted I'm being misleading. The Joe who made your graph hasn't, but he and I both used the exact same two tricks to create two graphs that look completely different from each other. Can you figure out the differences (hint: look at the edges of the graph)
 
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Saving Hawaii

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global_temp2.jpg


Here as you can see we have gone through global warming before without the SUV's playing a part. So what makes us think AGW is the cause of this last warming.

Just as a head up, those are milankovitch cycles. They're a major long-term factor (hundreds of thousands of years) in climate change. They're also easy to predict because they're based off our planet's orbit. They're not a factor in what's going on right now.
 
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plindboe

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I've admitted I'm being misleading. The Joe who made your graph hasn't, but he and I both used the exact same two tricks to create two graphs that look completely different from each other. Can you figure out the differences (hint: look at the edges of the graph)

Expect to be ignored. I actually think there's a valuable critical thinking lesson here for Greatcloud, if he devoted some time on it. Graphs can indeed be misleading, and if you don't understand how, you'll continue to be easily manipulated, especially in the GW debate.

Peter :)
 
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Greatcloud

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I’ve never understood why, when asked what might have an impact on global temperatures, a) evil Western capitalism or b) a gigantic ball of fire hundreds of times larger than our planet itself, people choose “a”. Hasn’t anyone noticed the simple fact that when the sun goes down at night, the temperature drops 30+ degrees immediately? Is that just from all those mean CO2 plants shutting down for the evening?




:bow:CO2
 
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Chalnoth

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I’ve never understood why, when asked what might have an impact on global temperatures, a) evil Western capitalism or b) a gigantic ball of fire hundreds of times larger than our planet itself, people choose “a”. Hasn’t anyone noticed the simple fact that when the sun goes down at night, the temperature drops 30+ degrees immediately? Is that just from all those mean CO2 plants shutting down for the evening?
It's really simple, Greatcloud: scientists don't just pick blindly. They actually investigate. And after careful investigation, we've found out that humans are the cause of the recent warming, and things are going to get really nasty for us within the next few decades.
 
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Greatcloud

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Here's a (partial) list of the
specific glaciers that are growing

(There are many more)

  • NORWAY
    Ålfotbreen Glacier
    Briksdalsbreen Glacier
    Nigardsbreen Glacier
    Hardangerjøkulen Glacier
    Hansebreen Glacier
    Jostefonn Glacier
    Engabreen glacier (The Engabreen glacier
    is the second largest glacier in Norway. It is a
    part (a glacial tongue) of the Svartisen glacier,
    which has steadily increased in mass since the
    1960s when heavier winter precipitation set in.)

  • Norway's glaciers growing at record pace. The face of the Briksdal glacier,
    an off-shoot of the largest glacier in Norway and mainland Europe, is growing by an
    average 7.2 inches (18 cm) per day. (From the Norwegian daily Bergens Tidende.)


    Click here to see mass balance of Norwegian glaciers:
    http://www.nve.no/

    Choose "English" (at top of the page), choose "Water,"
    then "Hydrology,"then "Glaciers and Snow" from the menu.
    You'll see a list of all significant glaciers in Norway.
    (Thanks to Leif-K. Hansen for this info.)
  • CANADA
    Helm Glacier
    Place Glacier

    Glaciers growing on Canada’s tallest mountain
    17 Nov 08 – The ice-covered peak of Yukon's soaring Mount Logan
    may be due for an official re-measurement after readings that suggest
    this country's superlative summit has experienced a growth spurt.
    See Glaciers growing on Canada’s tallest mountain
  • SWITZERLAND
    Silvretta Glacier
  • KIRGHIZTAN
    Abramov
  • RUSSIA
    Maali Glacier (This glacier is surging. See below)
More info below
  • GREENLAND See Greenland Icecap Growing Thicker
    Greenland glacier advancing 7.2 miles per year!The BBC recently ran
    a documentary, The Big Chill, saying that we could be on the verge of an ice
    age. Britain could be heading towards an Alaskan-type climate within a decade,
    say scientists, because the Gulf Stream is being gradually cut off. The Gulf
    Stream keeps temperatures unusually high for such a northerly latitude. One of Greenland’s largest glaciers has already doubled its rate of advance,
    moving forward at the rate of 12 kilometers (7.2 miles) per year. To see a
    transcript of the documentary,
    go to BBC - Science & Nature - Horizon - Big Chill


    Greenland Ice Sheet Growing Thicker
    4 Nov 05 - After gathering data for more than ten years, a team of
    Norwegian-led scientists has found that the Greenland Ice Sheet is
    actually growing thicker at its interior.
    See Greenland Ice Sheet Growing Thicker
    .
    .
  • CHILE
    [FONT='Times New Roman',serif]Pio XI, the largest glacier in South America, grows [/font]
    [FONT='Times New Roman',serif]50 meters in height, length and density every day.[/font]
    See Pio XI - Largest glacier in Chile - Growing every day
  • NEW ZEALAND
    All 48 glaciers in the Southern Alps have grown during the past year.
    The growth is at the head of the glaciers, high in the mountains, where they
    gained more ice than they lost. Noticeable growth should be seen at the
    foot of the Fox and Franz Josef glaciers within two to three years.(27 May 2003)
    See New Zealand Glaciers Growing

    Fox, Franz Josef glaciers defy trend - New Zealand's
    two best-known glaciers are still on the march
    31 Jan 07 - See Franz Josef Glacier still on the march

    [FONT='Times New Roman',serif]SeealsoPesky New Zealand Glaciers Growing[/font]
  • ARGENTINA
    Argentina's Perito Moreno Glacier, the largest glacier in Patagonia,
    is advancing at the rate of 7 feet per day. The 250 km² ice formation,
    30 km long, is one of 48 glaciers fed by the Southern Patagonian Ice
    Field. This ice field, located in the Andes system shared with Chile,
    is the world's third largest reserve of fresh water.
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Perito_Moreno_Glacier

  • UNITED STATES
    - Colorado (scroll down to see AP article)
    - Washington (Mount St. Helens, Mt. Rainier* and Mt. Shuksan
    - California (Mount Shasta - scroll down for info)
    - Montana (scroll down for info)
    - Glacier Peak, WA (scroll down for info
    - Alaska (Mt. McKinley and Hubbard).


  • Antarctic ice grows to record levels
    13 Sep 07 - While the Antarctic Peninsula area has warmed
    in recent years and ice near it diminished during the Southern
    Hemisphere summer, the interior of Antarctica has been colder
    and ice elsewhere has been more extensive and longer lasting,
    See Antarctic ice grows to record levels

    Oops - West Antarctic Ice Sheet
    not losing ice as fast as we thought
    20 Oct 09 — New measurements by
    GPS Network suggest the rate of ice
    loss of the West Antarctic ice sheet
    has been slightly overestimated.
    See Oops - West Antarctic Ice Sheet not losing ice as fast as we thought
    West_Antarctic_ice_sheet.jpg
    .
  • Antarctica's Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf is growing
    7 Dec 05 – Scientists Joughin and Bamber re-evaluated the mass balances
    of the ice in Antarctica. "It is clear from the results of this study that the
    Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf is not rapidly, or even slowly, wasting away.
    Quite to the contrary, it is growing."
    See Antarctica's Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf growing

  • Alaska's Hubbard Glacier advancing 7 feet per day!
    10 May 09 – This from climatologist Cliff Harris of the Coeur d’Alene Press.
    It's possible that the glacier could close the fjord by later this summer if the
    current rate speeds up, says Harris.
    See Alaska's Hubbard Glacier advancing 7 feet per day!

  • Global Warming? New Data Shows Ice Is Back
    19 Feb 08 - A Feb. 18 report in the London Daily Express showed that there is nearly
    a third more ice in Antarctica than usual, challenging the global warming crusaders and
    buttressing arguments of skeptics who deny that the world is undergoing global warming.
    See Most snow cover since 1966
    .
    .
  • Mount St. Helens’ Crater Glacier Advancing Three Feet Per Day
    25 Jun 07 - See Crater Glacier
  • Against odds, glacier grows in cauldron of Mt. St. Helens
    15 May 08 – See Glacier grows in cauldron of Mt. St. Helens
  • Mount St. Helens glacier (Crater Glacier) growing 50 feet per year
    September 20, 2004 - See Mount St. Helens
* * *​



Largest glacier in Argentina advancing
15 Jun 09 – "Argentina's Perito Moreno glacier is (supposedly) one of only a few ice fields worldwide that have withstood rising global temperatures.”
See Largest glacier in Argentina advancing
Perito_Moreno_Glacier.jpg


Alaska's Hubbard Glacier advancing 7 feet per day!
10 May 09 – This from climatologist Cliff Harris of the Coeur d’Alene Press.
It's possible that the glacier could close the fjord by later this summer if the
current rate speeds up, says Harris.
See Alaska's Hubbard Glacier advancing 7 feet per day!


Glaciers growing on Glacier Peak, WA
16 Oct 08 – Email from reader
Before I moved to CO in 2005 it was obvious that the glaciers and snow
had receded and rock was visible in areas all the way to the peak. The glaciers
and snow are back now ... completely covered in white from top to bottom,
and this is after the "warm" summer months here in the PNW.
See Glaciers growing on Glacier Peak, WA
.
.
.
Growing Alaskan glaciers the start of a new Little Ice Age?
14 Oct 08 – “Never before in the history of a research project dating back
to 1946 had the Juneau Icefield witnessed the kind of snow buildup that
came this year. It was similar on a lot of other glaciers too.
See Growing Alaskan glaciers the start of a new Little Ice Age?
.
.
 
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Greatcloud

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12 more glaciers that haven’t heard the news about global warming

January 25, 2010, 2:00 am · 58 comments

The glaciers are melting! The glaciers are melting! The glaciers are…uhhhhh…never mind.
Turns out the IPCC’s chicken little story that all the Himalayan glaciers are melting is just another exaggeration. Or fraud. Take your choice. You know, like the stats coming out of East Anglia CRU. And its claim that Antarctica is melting. And that Greenland’s ice cap is melting. And that sea levels are rising. And that the polar bears are dying. Fact is, some glaciers are retreating, but many others around the world are growing.
“But how is that possible? How can glaciers be growing when the world is warming up like a package of Jiffy-Pop in a microwave?”
Here are a dozen glaciers (or groups of glaciers) around the world that are growing almost as quickly as global warming skepticism.
1. Himalayan glaciers are growing, not shrinking
Things are not as they seemed to be in the IPCC report. Not only are the Himalayan glaciers not shrinking, they’re growing. Discovery reports:
himalayas-e1264354066213.jpg

Perched on the soaring Karakoram mountains in the Western Himalayas, a group of some 230 glaciers are bucking the global warming trend. They’re growing. Throughout much of the Tibetan Plateau, high-altitude glaciers are dwindling in the face of rising temperatures. The situation is potentially dire for the hundreds of millions of people living in China, India and throughout southeast Asia who depend on the glaciers for their water supply.
But in the rugged western corner of the plateau, the story is different, according to a new study. Among legendary peaks of Mt. Everest like K2 and Nanga Parbat, glaciers with a penthouse view of the world are growing, and have been for almost three decades.
“These are the biggest mid-latitude glaciers in the world,” John Shroder of the University of Nebraska-Omaha said. “And all of them are either holding still, or advancing.”
Source: Discovery
hubbard-glacier-e1264352614565.jpg
2. Alaska’s Hubbard Glacier. Growing. A lot.
Alaska’s Hubbard Glacier is advancing moving toward Gilbert Point near Yakutat at an average of seven feet per day.
The Army Corp of Engineers’ Hubbard Glacier website for has some great photos of the advancing behemoth.
Source: CDApress.com
3. Norwegian glaciers. Growing again.
IceAgeNow.com reports on the growth of Norwegian glaciers:
norway-nigardsbreen-glacier-e1264354507949.jpg

“After years of decline, glaciers in Norway are again growing, reports the Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate. The actual magnitude of the growth, which appears to have begun over the last two years, has not yet been quantified, says NVE Senior Engineer Hallgeir Elvehøy.”The developments were originally reported by the Norwegian Broadcasting Corporation (NRK).
Source: IceAgeNow.com
4. Glaciers growing on Canada’s tallest mountain
Canada.com tells the tale of glaciers growing on Canada’s tallest mountain:
“Canada’s tallest mountain, the Yukon’s towering Mount Logan, may have experienced a growth spurt.


Canada-Mount-Logan-Banded-Glacier-e1264354717223.jpg
“The University of Alaska aerial survey, conducted last summer with a laser altimeter by Fairbanks-based geoscientist Sandy Zirnheld, pegged Canada’s geographic zenith at 5,966 metres. That’s seven metres (23 feet) higher than the official height of 5,959 metres, determined in 1992 after a celebrated climb to the top by a team of Canadian researchers led by Mike Schmidt of the Geological Survey of Canada.


“Snow and ice accumulation is the most likely explanation,” Chris Larsen, the scientist leading the University of Alaska’s research on the continent’s northwest mountain ranges, said.”

Source: Canada.com
5. North to Alaska and more growing glaciers
Alaska’s glaciers have been in retreat for nearly 200 years. But now they’re advancing again.
alaska-muir-glacier-e1264355030876.jpg
MichNews.com reports the cold, hard facts:
“Unusually large amounts of Alaskan snow last winter were followed by unusually chilly temperatures there this summer. “In general, the weather this summer was the worst I have seen in at least 20 years,” says Bruce Molnia of the U.S. Geological Survey, and author of The Glaciers of Alaska. “It’s been a long time on most glaciers where they’ve actually had positive mass balance (added thickness).”
“Overall, Molnia figures Alaska had lost 10–12,000 square kilometers of ice since 1800, the depths of the Little Ice Age. That’s enough ice to cover the state of Connecticut. Climate alarmists claim all the glaciers might disappear soon, but they haven’t looked at the long-term evidence of the 1,500-year Dansgaard-Oeschger climate cycles. During the Little Ice Age—1400 to 1850—Muir Glacier filled the whole of Glacier Bay. Since then, the glacier has retreated 57 miles.
Source: MichNews.com
mount-shasta-glacier-e1264352956674.jpg
6. Glaciers are growing in California. California?
You might be surprised to learn that the Golden State has glaciers. And the Associated Press says they’re growing:
“Global warming is shrinking glaciers all over the world, but the seven tongues of ice creeping down Mount Shasta’s flanks are a rare exception: They are the only known glaciers in the continental U.S. that are growing.”
Source: FoxNews.com
7. A glacier is growing on Washington’s Mt. St. Helens.
Mount Saint Helens has glaciers? But it’s an active volcano. But, but, but…
mt-st-helens-glacier-e1264353055638.jpg
KATU-TV reports the details:
“On May 18, 1980, the once bucolic ice-cream cone shape that defined Mount St. Helens in Washington state disappeared in monstrous blast of ash, rock, gas, and heat.
“Inside the volcano, which was once a soft dome of snow but is now a gaping, steaming menace with an unpredictable streak, an unexpected phenomenon is taking place: a glacier is growing.
“In these days of global warming concerns and scientists showing alarming then-and-now images of glaciers disappearing from mountainsides, it may be the only growing glacier in America – or maybe the world.
Source: KATU.com
8. Glaciers are growing in France and Switzerland, too
Another continent has reported in. According to an article in the Journal of Geophysical Research, glaciers are growing in France and Switzerland, too:
mont-blanc-glacier-e1264352869447.jpg

The research was conducted by six scientists from leading agencies and departments in France and Switzerland that deal with hydrology and glaciology. The research was funded by Observatoire des Sciences de l’Univers de Grenoble (OSUG), the European Programs ALPCLIM and CARBOSOL, and by the city of Chamonix Mont-Blanc.Vincent et al. collected a variety of datasets that could help them understand how the high-elevation glaciers of Mont Blanc were impacted by variations and trends in climate. Among other findings, they found that the mass balance of the glaciers is strongly controlled by precipitation, not temperature.
Vincent et al. state “The most striking features of these figures are the small thickness changes observed over the 20th century. For both areas, thickness variations do not exceed ±15 m. The average changes are +2.6 m at Dôme du Goûter (please note that this glacier is growing) and -0.3 m (-12 inches) at Mont Blanc.
“Considering the uncertainty interval, i.e., ±5 m, it can be concluded that no significant thickness change is detectable over most of these areas”. “All these results suggest that the SMBDôme du Goûter and Mont Blanc did not experience any significant changes over the 20th century.”
Source: World Climate Report
9. New Zealand’s largest glaciers are growing

Growing may not be a strong enough word. They’re surging. IceAgeNow.com reports the story:
franz-josef-glacier-0-e1264352528508.jpg

Guides say the Franz Josef and the Fox glaciers continued advancing down their valleys in the past year and may soon be close to positions reached 40 years ago.
That (supposedly) contrasts sharply with the plight of many glaciers elsewhere on the planet, which are (supposedly) shrinking three times faster than they were in the 1980s, according to the World Glacier Monitoring Service (WGMS).
…
Franz Josef Glacier Guides base manager Tom Arnold estimated the Franz Josef and the Fox had advanced hundreds of meters in the past year.
Source: IceAgeNow.com
10. Russia’s glaciers are growing, too
The Russians don’t believe the IPCC forecasts, but they do believe their own eyes.
maili-glacier-e1264352735961.jpg

In 2002, a 22-million ton piece of ice broke off the gigantic Maili Glacier and crashed down a steep gorge into the village of Kami. It killed more than 150 people and injured hundreds more.The 500-foot wall of ice had been growing for six years. The Maili Glacier is just one of several glaciers in the North Caucasus Mountains that have been expanding at an alarming rate.
Other towns in the region have been partially buried by these advancing walls of ice. One local scientist in southern Russia said, “We may be seeing the beginning of a new great ice age!!!”
Source: IceAgeNow.com
11. Argentina’s Perito Moreno glacier is, you guessed it, growing
perito-moreno-glacier-e1264353127969.jpg
Is there a continent where glaciers aren’t growing? If so, South America isn’t one of them. Consider Argentina’s Perito Moreno glacier:
Nourished by Andean snowmelt, the glacier constantly grows even as it spawns icebergs the size of apartment buildings into a frigid lake, maintaining a nearly perfect equilibrium since measurements began more than a century ago.
“We’re not sure why this happens,” said Andres Rivera, a glacialist with the Center for Scientific Studies in Valdivia, Chile. “But not all glaciers respond equally to climate change.”
Source: IceAgeNow.com
12. Iceland’s Breidamerkurjokull glacier. Yup, it’s growing, too.
breidamerkurjokull-glacier--e1264352377441.jpg
The Daily Mail UK ran a story on July 31, 2009 about the horrors of global warming. It was accompanied, for some inexplicable reason, by contradictory photos that showed the remarkable growth of Iceland’s Breidamerkurjokull glacier.
Their headline screamed, “How global warming is changing the face of the northern hemisphere.” The photos and caption told a story that was, you’ll pardon the expression, the polar opposite of what the article described.
Source: Daily Mail UK
 
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Chalnoth

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You are living in the past what do you call this

Global%20Cooling%20Graph.jpg
An intentionally misleading graph that only looks like less warming because of its particular choice of end points?

You see, I posted a graph showing the previous decades as well, so that you could see what "stasis" should look like. You just posted what amounts to a lie.
 
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Exiledoomsayer

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...Wait seriously?
Your reply to a graph showing the last 200 years is to show a graph of the 20 <effectively showing the same thing as the last 10% of the first one just bigger> Just for fun lets do the same thing again and take 10% of your graph lets say.. 2004-2006.. Amg global warming is worse then we thought!

Honestly..
 
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Chalnoth

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...Wait seriously?
Your reply to a graph showing the last 200 years is to show a graph of the 20 <effectively showing the same thing as the last 10% of the first one just bigger> Just for fun lets do the same thing again and take 10% of your graph lets say.. 2004-2006.. Amg global warming is worse then we thought!

Honestly..
Slight correction: it's ~130 years vs. 11.
 
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