Then look at the actual data and tell us how much the planet has warmed in the last ten years. Hint. The number is zero.
1. So you concede that FAR, SAR, TAR etc are models that are gradually improving, and that FAR is not the state of the art model now anyway, according to the IPCC?
2. Anyone who says it has not warmed in the last 10 years or so is ignoring global temperatures before the last 10 years, and other short-term climate 'waves' like La Nina. It's like looking at the trough in the waves in the bathtub, and ignoring the fact that the tap has been left on! "Look, there's a low bit there!" and ignoring that the higher waves are now washing over the sides of the bath!
Basically I'm sure you're relying on 1998 to try and indicate no warming... in the hottest decade on instrumental records!
Here's the thing: 1998 is now the 3rd warmest year on record and IT was on the high point of an El Nino wave, while the 2 years that beat it were in La Nina 'lows'!
Of the top 3 climate monitoring units on the planet only Hadley says 1998 was the warmest, and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) has pointed to a cooling bias with the Hadley data.
What has global warming done since 1998?
Two of the three most powerful temperature databases on the planet confirm 1998 as the THIRD warmest year on record, even when 1998 had one of the most frighteningly powerful El Nino's we've ever seen. Check it out [bless and do not curse]NOAA, NASA, then Hadley's CRU.
The NCDC at NOAA says:
///For 2010, the combined global land and ocean surface temperature tied with 2005 as the warmest such period on record, at 0.62°C (1.12°F) above the 20th century average of 13.9°C (57.0°F). 1998 is the third warmest year-to-date on record, at 0.60°C (1.08°F) above the 20th century average."
State of the Climate | Global Analysis - Annual 2010
NASA GISTEMP confirms the same thing and says:
"Global surface temperatures in 2010 tied 2005 as the warmest on record, according to an analysis released Wednesday by researchers at NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) in New York.///
http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/news/20110112/
And now Phil Jones at the CRU, but don't forget the ECMWF has had a go at this particular dataset.
///The time series shows the combined global land and marine surface temperature record from 1850 to 2010. According to the method of calculation used by CRU, the year 2010 was the equal third (see footnote) warmest on record (with 2003), exceeded by 1998 and 2005. The years 2003, 2005 and 2010 are only distinguishable in the third decimal place. The error estimate for individual years (two standard errors is about ±0.1°C, see Brohan et al., 2006) is at least ten times larger than the differences between these three years.
The period 2001-2010 (0.44°C above 1961-90 mean) was 0.20°C warmer than the 1991-2000 decade (0.24°C above 1961-90 mean). The warmest year of the entire series has been 1998, with a temperature of 0.55°C above the 1961-90 mean. After 1998, the next nine warmest years in the series are all in the decade 2001-2010. During this decade, only 2008 is not in the ten warmest years. Even though 2008 was the coldest year of the 21st century it was still the 12th warmest year of the whole record.///
Information Sheet 1 redirection
But rather than argue over hundredths of a degree, which is all that seems to separate the temperatures, have a look at the 15 year trend *all* 3 agencies report. Brilliant graphic here.
Climate monitoring - Met Office
Even Denialist's are admitting it. At the 2009 Heartland Institute conference (of global warming sceptics), well known climate denialist Dr Patrick J Michaels (author of the World Climate Report Denialist blog) warned against using the 1998 El Nino super-spike as some sort of 'proof' of a cooling trend. Take the advice of the words of a fellow Denialist.
"You've all seen articles saying that global warming stopped in 1998. Well, with all due respect that's being a little bit unfair to the data. This is 1998 here, and it was a HUGE El Nino year, and the sun was very active in 1998, and so what you're going to have you're going to have a fall
as the consequent La Nina
takes place."
"Make an argument that you can get killed on and you will kill us all
If you loose credibility on this issue you lose this issue!"
1998 Revisited - YouTube
He then goes on to explain that when the El Nino cycles return, it's going to get really hot again. Not only that, but Patrick Michaels explains that:
"SO! Global warming IS REAL, and the second warming of the 20th Century, people have something to do with it! Now get over it!"
So while Denialists selectively zoom in on a few data points to try and skew the story any way they want, overall, the trend is clear.
Climate Denial Crock of the Week - Party like it's 1998 - YouTube
The last decade was the hottest on record, and anyone who says otherwise is denying the best data on the planet and pushing an anti-science agenda of their own.