- Mar 16, 2004
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Chalnoth said:And this precise effect explains why the gene has remained almost completely unchanged for so long, until a large selection pressure in favor of change in that gene occurred.
Natural selection preserves a favored trait, it does not produce it. You are ignoring the need for the nucleotide sequence to be altered in the first place. This makes no sense whatsoever, you have the effect before the cause.
But the scenario where the mutation results in a meaningless amino acid only make it easier to produce a beneficial mutation! If the mutation is that destructive to the coding, the fetus would be unlikely to survive at all, and the parents would be able to try again much more quickly.
So how many lethal mutations do you think nature tinkers with before it gets lucky. It's like winning the lottery at least three times in a row, did you forget this?

That is all the possiblities that you have to work with. What happens when a single nucleotide is substituted in one of those amino acids? What do you estimate the probability that it will be transposed into a meaningfull sequence? I only ask because we are looking at 6 with how many lethal mutations left in the wake?
Unfortunately, I don't think anybody knows the exact probabilities of each kind of mutation. I mean, you have four possibilities:
1. A destructive mutation (fetus does not survive, either for very long in the womb, or for very long after).
2. A mutation that has no effect (won't spread through the population as a whole).
3. A mutation that degrades the survivability or reproductive capability of the organism (certainly won't spread through the population).
4. A mutation that increases the survivability or reproductive capability of the organism (will spread relatively quickly).
I don't know, this is such an intelligent answer I am just going to leave this statement alone with my full agreement.
Unfortunately, of the ~400 possible insertion/change mutations in the gene, I don't think we have any way of knowing how many fit into each category. But we could just take the worst-case scenario, and state that only those 18 mutations which separate us from our ape brethren are beneficial to brain development (highly, highly unlikely, but why not, for the purpose of argument?).
I am not sure but I think you may have an interesting proposition here. We would need to know the exact amino acid sequence but it would be fun to try. If you have 64 possible combinations of the 4 nucleotides involved in all DNA (4*4*4), then you are limited are you not? If we know the exact amino acid sequence of both ape and man in this gene we could probably come up with a scenerio. I'll do some looking around but I'm not promising anything.
Now, still with the assumption of ~100,000 hominid population, we know that any mutation in the HAR1 gene will happen about once every generation.
There is really no chance that populations approached 100,000. They were limited to central Africa up until just over a million years ago, there is no way populations approached that many, it was more likely around 10,000.
But the probability for this mutation to be beneficial is about ~1/20. So it takes 20 generations for a beneficial mutation to occur. But there's still a relatively high mortality rate among humans, so even though we have rather high selection pressure in favor of well-developed brains, there's still a significant chance the hominid child in question won't ever grow up. So let's say it takes, on average, fifty tries for that gene to survive until it can actually spread.
I don't know what you are doing with this hypothetical but it begs the question of the gene actually being changed.
So that's one mutation every 1000 generations that spreads throughout the population. Once the mutation has occurred, as long as the selection pressure is there, it will spread throughout the entire population. So we have 18 of these mutations to perform, or 18000 generations. Let's bump it up to a good round 20000 generations.
Ok, let's see what you do with half a million years to accumulate 18 substitutions in a highly conserved gene.
If every generation is 20 years, we have a mere 400,000 years required for the HAR1 gene to change all 18 base pairs.
So, combining a near worst-case scenario for the probability of a mutation being beneficial, and adding in a 1/50 chance that that mutation will spread throughout the genome, we still have a miniscule time scale, in evolutionary terms, for the full gamut of changes in the HAR1 gene to have occurred.
That is amazingly general rationalization of a very specific sequence. While I do enjoy watching you applying the rate of spontaneous mutations to overall divergance it does not apply to a specific gene like this one. First you have to find a beneficial effect from a mutation in a gene effecting the developing human brain.
Good luck with that one because I have yet to even see a mere mention of one and I have been doing this for a couple of years now.
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