Economic Collapse?

[chaz491]

Hi

Does anyone know of a credentialed economist - someone with some sort of degree in economics or finance - who is (1) saying there will be an economic collapse and (2) not benefitting financially from preaching about a coming collapse? There are several people out there preaching about a coming collapse but I can't find anyone who has legitimate credentials and is not benefitting financially from telling people there is a coming problem

 

[Tull]

The problem is real but Americans can find a way to sell anything,they solutions they offer are worthless,there will be no escape except for the life,i have no desire to live during such a thing and hope to die before or shortly there after.

 

[chaz491]

sounds like you don't know of anyone like I've described above - that is legitimate, isn't benefitting financially and is also preaching there will be an economic calamity.

The only person that I really have found is Richard Wolff, but he hates capitalism so passionately that he actually advocates communism as a good economic system. He does make some undeniable points about problems in our economic system, but you can't really accept what he says about an economic calamity because he is so biased against capitalism.

 

[Tull]

Yes,some people are so consumed with envy of others gifts and talents that they would take them away or harness them by force to serve the collective,everyone at the same low level,no one allowed to rise to the level that freedom would allow them to.......they are a blight to humanity.

 

[PRESIDIO]

I would say James Rickards, Chris Martenson & David Stockman are three of the most non-conspiracy theorist type individuals I've heard that are warning of coming economic troubles. I don't get the sense that any of the three are believers however, they do seem to have a handle on economics and the state of our economy. Unfortunately, all of them (and everyone) who has a national platform in discussing economics is going to get paid for doing it. Having said that, I find the three of them to be the most credible and I know for sure James Rickards and David Stockman have written some great books some of which are best sellers. I've read some of them.

 

[Christian Prepper]

In Canada, Michael Campbell does a weekly show out of Vancouver called Money Talks. He doesn't benefit from a collapsing economy and interviews various guests who also don't benefit. He repeatedly speaks of the unsustainability of our current system based on projected mathematical facts. For many years I also have been learning more about our economic system and find it severely wanting. The cost of goods continually go up against the decreasing purchasing power of our currency. Debt levels of families and governments rise year after year. I, for one, am seeking to join with other Christians to live in community to share our resources and learn to live on less. This is the only logical way that I see open for those who don't want to be swallowed up by a manipulated system that was designed to benefit the upper 0.1 %. I've created a website that further addresses those points.
fellowshipofchristianprepperslivingincommunity.ca

 

[PRESIDIO]

In Canada, Michael Campbell does a weekly show out of Vancouver called Money Talks. He doesn't benefit from a collapsing economy and interviews various guests who also don't benefit. He repeatedly speaks of the unsustainability of our current system based on projected mathematical facts. For many years I also have been learning more about our economic system and find it severely wanting. The cost of goods continually go up against the decreasing purchasing power of our currency. Debt levels of families and governments rise year after year. I, for one, am seeking to join with other Christians to live in community to share our resources and learn to live on less. This is the only logical way that I see open for those who don't want to be swallowed up by a manipulated system that was designed to benefit the upper 0.1 %. I've created a website that further addresses those points.
fellowshipofchristianprepperslivingincommunity.ca

Probably a great idea to begin considering this. Believers would definitely need to group together in a time such as described in The Bible. We all have been blessed with more than what we need.

 

[bugkiller]

In Canada, Michael Campbell does a weekly show out of Vancouver called Money Talks. He doesn't benefit from a collapsing economy and interviews various guests who also don't benefit. He repeatedly speaks of the unsustainability of our current system based on projected mathematical facts. For many years I also have been learning more about our economic system and find it severely wanting. The cost of goods continually go up against the decreasing purchasing power of our currency. Debt levels of families and governments rise year after year. I, for one, am seeking to join with other Christians to live in community to share our resources and learn to live on less. This is the only logical way that I see open for those who don't want to be swallowed up by a manipulated system that was designed to benefit the upper 0.1 %. I've created a website that further addresses those points.
fellowshipofchristianprepperslivingincommunity.ca

I won't divulge how little I spend. I live in the country on acreage. My intent is to be largely self sufficient as much as possible. I could really live without most conveniences. Part of my reasoning is to be free from processed foods. So I'm working on my dirt. Just got a 100 or so cubic yards o good clean wood chips delivered for free. I compost. Heat with wood. In the last 10 years I've spent less than 2 grand total for heat. I'm far enough below the poverty line I don't have to file income tax and still can put up to half my income in savings. I can write a 4 figure check without blinking. Everything is on a cash basis. No money, no buy. Not afraid to ride a bicycle. Primary transportation is a 1/2 ton. Paid 5 figures cash for a brand new tractor.

bugkiller

 

[Bee_in_the_Light]

Anyone can benefit financially from a collapse, if they believe in it. By selling short. So how do you know if someone would, or wouldn't benefit from it?

I'm not an economist, though have studied it a little. I think we should start by describing, what kind of "economic collapse" you are looking for. As we are on a prepper side of the forums, I would expect you to mean some kind of near-total collapse of the world economy (and organized society), that is also long term.

I don't think (m)any credible economist would make that kind of a prediction. Already just because there are too many "ifs" and variables to consider before you could reach that kind of conclusion.

 

[Unix]

That's very well done, bugkiller! Some of my costs are very low because of completely other reasons than Yours. I don't know how much I pay for heating it is included in the rent but I can imagine it's quite a lot, I'm rather stuck living in a too large appartment as it's an incredibly complex process to move within the county (so it's actually A LOT easier and cheaper to move abroad within EU), this appartment would have room to have a girlfriend live with me, but my standards are so high whom I accept now after certain developments such as that I started out with research and that I met the most wonderful girl that revolutionized my thinking but whom it's practically not necessarily ever possible to be together with and particularly not here and I don't know will she ever count on me, so we are just best friends.
It's pretty complicated to find efficient and secure further options for better extra finances - there is NO really simple way and never will be in my case. The most simple would be all parties accepting that a dowry in the right direction actually works.
My costs are fully research-related, I have about no costs for consumables and clothes. My most expensive cost is a pair new pants but as the colour I want to find (yellow) is very rare it will take quite a while before I spend becaues I don't know right now whether I need nor find a pair.

For several reasons I try to recommend Bitcoin as in discussions I rather just click like or agree on good posts and comments instead of saying anything myself - so not like recommending openly on forums but recommending to people close to me.

I try not to buy that much more bulky things, because at some point I would incure storage costs if I would. But I would like to get a car for local use but my dad seems to disagree and not realize the long-term need of first needing to temporarily drive, which would results in something else in the long-term which would make it easier for me to run my Sole trader firm.

To be efficient to some degree I have an good arrangement that someone else does work, I enable him to, whereas my benefit from that is that I can say my Sole trader firm is active and he will start paying back debts at a bit better pace.

 

[bugkiller]

That's very well done, bugkiller! Some of my costs are very low because of completely other reasons than Yours. I don't know how much I pay for heating it is included in the rent but I can imagine it's quite a lot, I'm rather stuck living in a too large appartment as it's an incredibly complex process to move within the county (so it's actually A LOT easier and cheaper to move abroad within EU), this appartment would have room to have a girlfriend live with me, but my standards are so high whom I accept now after certain developments such as that I started out with research and that I met the most wonderful girl that revolutionized my thinking but whom it's practically not necessarily ever possible to be together with and particularly not here and I don't know will she ever count on me, so we are just best friends.
It's pretty complicated to find efficient and secure further options for better extra finances - there is NO really simple way and never will be in my case. The most simple would be all parties accepting that a dowry in the right direction actually works.
My costs are fully research-related, I have about no costs for consumables and clothes. My most expensive cost is a pair new pants but as the colour I want to find (yellow) is very rare it will take quite a while before I spend becaues I don't know right now whether I need nor find a pair.

For several reasons I try to recommend Bitcoin as in discussions I rather just click like or agree on good posts and comments instead of saying anything myself - so not like recommending openly on forums but recommending to people close to me.

I try not to buy that much more bulky things, because at some point I would incure storage costs if I would. But I would like to get a car for local use but my dad seems to disagree and not realize the long-term need of first needing to temporarily drive, which would results in something else in the long-term which would make it easier for me to run my Sole trader firm.

To be efficient to some degree I have an good arrangement that someone else does work, I enable him to, whereas my benefit from that is that I can say my Sole trader firm is active and he will start paying back debts at a bit better pace.

Thanks. God has been very kind to me. At one time I was in your position. You have my deepest sympathies. I am very grateful I live in the US.

Been cleaning up some of my place the last couple weeks and almost have enough wood cut for next winter for less than a gallon of gasoline.

bugkiller

 

[gideon123]

The USA is like an enormous ocean liner sailing in the ocean. We don't change directions quickly or easily. It is unlikely that a major collapse will happen 'overnight'. But our country is most certainly going in the wrong direction. There are a variety of credible predictions for a stock market recession that will wipe 60% off the S&P value. Is this what you would call a collapse?

To me ... collapse means something much worse. That is more likely to come from the outbreak of new wars, especially if they are serious (e.g. the use of nuclear weapons, or other weapons of mass destruction).

The global economic system is quite fragile because real banking reform was never put in place. After the 2008 crisis, the correct steps were to reform the banks and remove the current leadership completely. It never happened. So the same underlying problems still exist, and they are more exaggerated now. A major economic downturn is certainly possible - it may be starting now. But a sudden 'collapse' would be more likely to be triggered by an unexpected event on a global scale e.g. new wars, or a dramatic increase in the price of oil.

 

[Andrew77]

Hi

Does anyone know of a credentialed economist - someone with some sort of degree in economics or finance - who is (1) saying there will be an economic collapse and (2) not benefitting financially from preaching about a coming collapse? There are several people out there preaching about a coming collapse but I can't find anyone who has legitimate credentials and is not benefitting financially from telling people there is a coming problem

There have been many 'credentialed' economists, with degrees, that have predicted doom and gloom for ages. Many, far too many for me to count or name. I remember hearing about it in the 90s, the 2000s, and now.

The one difference between the Pagan fear mongering, and the Christian fear mongering, is that the Bible itself says that the world markets will crash.

And it's not hard to see why. Right now, most democracies are running large deficits. These deficits are caused by economic recessions, where they mistakenly thinking they have to spend money to fix the economy.

Well at some point, like Greece, those debts come due. And the most likely time those debts will come due, is when the economy falters. So if you start borrowing to fix the economy, and at the same time people demand their money back, you end up with Greece. A failed state with a bankrupt government, and ruined economy.

So we can all see how the crash could happen. All these different banks around the world own our debt. Yet our banks own their debt too. Everyone owes everyone money, and no one is running a surplus to pay any of it back.

The real question for the preper crowd, is if there is in fact a massive crash, how long will you be able to hold out? One year? Ten years? 20 Years? A life time?

Because the government is going to come for us. If a real massive crash happens, the government is going to start going crazy. Almost guaranteed. Every time we vote for a government that can take money from the top 1%, we also vote for a government that can take your garden, and canned food.

That's just how it is.

 

[Bee_in_the_Light]

The world's economic system is heavily based on money. However, we should always remember money is only serving the purpose of transmitting information; what is produced, how much is produced, and who gets to consume the production. No matter how big a shock the monetary system gets, it can always be regulated or even replaced with another one.

In the end, what matters is the real economy; the capability to produce things that are essential for our survival. No matter how many banks go down, the fields are still there, the tractors and harvesters are there, there will be means of producing all the things we need. They don't disappear even if our monetary system should collapse.

We have had countries default on their debt, and they are doing okay. It is when a government fails in everything except using force to keep its power, then we are in trouble. Like in Venezuela at the moment.

 

[Andrew77]

The world's economic system is heavily based on money. However, we should always remember money is only serving the purpose of transmitting information; what is produced, how much is produced, and who gets to consume the production. No matter how big a shock the monetary system gets, it can always be regulated or even replaced with another one.

In the end, what matters is the real economy; the capability to produce things that are essential for our survival. No matter how many banks go down, the fields are still there, the tractors and harvesters are there, there will be means of producing all the things we need. They don't disappear even if our monetary system should collapse.

We have had countries default on their debt, and they are doing okay. It is when a government fails in everything except using force to keep its power, then we are in trouble. Like in Venezuela at the moment.

Which country exactly, has defaulted on their debts, are doing ok?

 

[Bee_in_the_Light]

Which country exactly, has defaulted on their debts, are doing ok?

Argentina seems to be doing ok.

 

[Andrew77]

Argentina seems to be doing ok.

I was wondering if you were going to point to Argentina. I don't think that's a great model to follow, and nor do I think they are doing ok.

During the absolute worst part of the 2009 crash, the US recorded a drop in GDP of 2.7%. Argentina has experienced drops of 11% of their GDP.... which is insane. We've never had anything like that.

Additionally, Argentina has experienced massive drops of GDP over 2%, 12 different times since the 1980s. That's massive.

Lastly the recent default by Argentina hasn't had a dramatic impact on the economy, is for a couple of reasons.

1. They have defaulted so many times now, that interest rates are so high on Argentina bonds, that no one is panicking. You tend to panic when you are only getting 1% back on a bond, and then the cut the pay.
When you are already getting 10% on the bond, and you are expecting a possible default, and they cut the pay, you pretty much are ready for it.

2. They only had a partial default. The selected specific things to give a hair cut on.

The problem is, they may have only caused themselves larger problems later. Most of the bond holders of Argentina debt, have sued the government to force them to repay the debts, and they have already won several court cases. The problem is, Argentina has resumed borrowing since the default.

If the high debts of old bonds comes due, and they can pay it because they now have new debts, we're talking a major funding crisis brewing.

On top of that, they could put in place import and export restrictions on Argentina, which could very easily destroy the country.

Again, this is not a model for anyone to follow. This could end up being a catastrophe in the long run.

 

[Bee_in_the_Light]

I wouldn't advice anyone to follow Argentina's route, either. I would suggest everyone pay their debt and interest as agreed. That's what a Christian should do, not wiggle out of their responsibilities.

This is a prepper forum, though. My point is, a default is not, and will not lead to a "SHTF" scenarios that many seem to take as the starting point for their "being prepared". Even a US default would not lead to a situation, where "marauders" are looting your food within a couple weeks of the crash.

Countries do default.
They can recover from a default, whether it is "hard" or "soft" default.
Things will be painful for some time, but eventually it will be fine as long as everyone keeps doing something productive with their time and talent.

 

[bugkiller]

There have been many 'credentialed' economists, with degrees, that have predicted doom and gloom for ages. Many, far too many for me to count or name. I remember hearing about it in the 90s, the 2000s, and now.

The one difference between the Pagan fear mongering, and the Christian fear mongering, is that the Bible itself says that the world markets will crash.

And it's not hard to see why. Right now, most democracies are running large deficits. These deficits are caused by economic recessions, where they mistakenly thinking they have to spend money to fix the economy.

Well at some point, like Greece, those debts come due. And the most likely time those debts will come due, is when the economy falters. So if you start borrowing to fix the economy, and at the same time people demand their money back, you end up with Greece. A failed state with a bankrupt government, and ruined economy.

So we can all see how the crash could happen. All these different banks around the world own our debt. Yet our banks own their debt too. Everyone owes everyone money, and no one is running a surplus to pay any of it back.

The real question for the preper crowd, is if there is in fact a massive crash, how long will you be able to hold out? One year? Ten years? 20 Years? A life time?

Because the government is going to come for us. If a real massive crash happens, the government is going to start going crazy. Almost guaranteed. Every time we vote for a government that can take money from the top 1%, we also vote for a government that can take your garden, and canned food.

That's just how it is.

What you suggest is the major reason I live in the county and trying to improve my soil while things are cheap.

My fall chicks laid their first eggs this week.

bugkiller

 

[bugkiller]

The world's economic system is heavily based on money. However, we should always remember money is only serving the purpose of transmitting information; what is produced, how much is produced, and who gets to consume the production. No matter how big a shock the monetary system gets, it can always be regulated or even replaced with another one.

In the end, what matters is the real economy; the capability to produce things that are essential for our survival. No matter how many banks go down, the fields are still there, the tractors and harvesters are there, there will be means of producing all the things we need. They don't disappear even if our monetary system should collapse.

We have had countries default on their debt, and they are doing okay. It is when a government fails in everything except using force to keep its power, then we are in trouble. Like in Venezuela at the moment.

That is why hand tools are very valuable. Personally I think there is more value in having a stash of concrete blocks than a stash in the bank.

bugkiller