dutchsinse analysis of seismic activity in Chile hours before 6.1 mag. quake

[Minister Monardo]

Periodic YouTube report. Advance to approx. 16 minute point to view S. America

6.1 magnitude earthquake in Chile, with strong quakes before and after
Today's Earthquakes in South America

 

[Maria Billingsley]

Periodic YouTube report. Advance to approx. 16 minute point to view S. America

6.1 magnitude earthquake in Chile, with strong quakes before and after

Today's Earthquakes > 5.0M

I have been watching his stuff for years. Sometimes he gets things right. Let's not make him a prophet please. Be blessed.

 

[Minister Monardo]

I have been watching his stuff for years. Sometimes he gets things right. Let's not make him a prophet please. Be blessed.

Just for fun. Don't think earthquake forecasting will ever be of value by comparison to tornado
warnings and hurricane tracking.

 

[Ophiolite]

Just for fun. Don't think earthquake forecasting will ever be of value by comparison to tornado
warnings and hurricane tracking.

That's an odd conclusion. Why would you think that? Are you unaware of the extensive range of research in earthquake mechanisms and characteristics? Seemingly so.

 

[Minister Monardo]

That's an odd conclusion. Why would you think that? Are you unaware of the extensive range of research in earthquake mechanisms and characteristics? Seemingly so.

Okay, I would hope there could be warnings comparable to a tornado warning. If you weigh that hope
against the USGS statements on their website, they seem to be highly restrained in the willingness to forecast. There is widespread interest, for good reason, among the general public to participate in
seismic monitoring. Reminds me of amateur astronomers searching for comets.

Earthquake Early Warning at the Berkeley Seismo Lab
See:Host a station for early earthquake warning

 

[Minister Monardo]

That's an odd conclusion. Why would you think that? Are you unaware of the extensive range of research in earthquake mechanisms and characteristics? Seemingly so.

In other words, how reliable and exact will it have to be before government and media would be willing
to forecast?

 

[Ophiolite]

Okay, I would hope there could be warnings comparable to a tornado warning. If you weigh that hope against the USGS statements on their website, they seem to be highly restrained in the willingness to forecast.

This is what you said and what I responded to. I have emboldened the key word.

Don't think earthquake forecasting will ever be of value by comparison to tornado warnings and hurricane tracking.

Of course the USGS is currently "highly restrained", but your statement here contains the clear implication that you don't think there will ever be a time when they are not "highly restrained". That uns counter to the evidence and to logical consideration of the issue.

 

[Minister Monardo]

This is what you said and what I responded to. I have emboldened the key word.

Of course the USGS is currently "highly restrained", but your statement here contains the clear implication that you don't think there will ever be a time when they are not "highly restrained". That uns counter to the evidence and to logical consideration of the issue.

Sorry I did not back far enough away from the original statement. The emphasis on ever brings the
incorrect nature of the statement to light. I did not intend to state that the technology would never
allow such a forecast. The word ever should not have been used, you are correct. I was just pessimistic
of the willingness to use the information to issue the warnings, but I also believe that public demand will see it through. I appreciate your attention to detail.

 

[Ophiolite]

I appreciate your attention to detail.

I'm all about detail. Perhaps you avoid it because that is where the devil lurks.

It would be quite inappropriate for the USGS, currently, to offer predictions any more precise than what they do. We can look at fault lines, or fault complexes, and state that they will fail sometime in the next decade, or the next century. That in itself is valuable, if it is acknowledged. Don't build your house, or factory on, or adjacent to a fault line. Make sure houses or factories you build close to a fault line are constructed so as to be able to withstand a quake with minimal damage.