JSRG
Well-Known Member
- Apr 14, 2019
- 2,436
- 1,568
- Country
- United States
- Gender
- Male
- Faith
- Christian
- Marital Status
- Single
The polls didn't say they would be "neck and neck" between the two candidates. They said that the polls were too close to call and that it was therefore impossible for them to try to determine who would be the winner based on just the polls.That's another things that was devastated in this election. Confidence that polls are credible. They very much said that everywhere it was neck and neck between the two candidates. Seeing they were so wrong why does anyone allow them to cause stress before any election? Will we ever learn? Could it be that people weren't telling the truth in answering who they were voting for? Were they afraid of some retribution? If such was the mindset of massive amounts of people then what's that say about democracy in the States where people are terrified to tell the truth?
Most of the polls had a margin of error of about 3-5% (depending on the poll). So let's say that a poll was 50% Harris, 50% Trump. That means we could have, while staying within the margin of error, end up with 53% Harris 47% Trump (a fairly significant Harris win) or 47% Harris 53% Trump (a fairly significant Trump win). Of course, even a perfectly conducted poll that is able to perfectly take into account questions like whether people are telling them false things (which they do try to compensate for) means it still has only a 95% chance of being within the margin of error, so there's always that chance it falls outside.
With that in mind, let's take Pennsylvania, a notable swing state a lot of attention was paid to. Aggregate polling put them at virtually tied; 270towin actually did have a tie (48.2% Harris 48.2% Trump) while 538 had 47.9% Harris 47.7% Trump, and Silver Bulletin had 48.0% Harris 48.81% Trump. The other aggregators had similar numbers. Pennsylvania in the end had Harris get 48.5% and Trump 50.6%. That's very much within the margin of error, and was pretty close to the aggregate polls.
Now let's compare Wisconsin, another swing state that got a lot of attention. The final numbers were 48.7% Harris 49.7% Trump, closer than Pennsylvania. The aggregate polling usually put Harris as having a slight lead; aggregate polls here were saying things like 48.8% Harris 47.7% Trump, or 48.3% Harris 47.3% Trump, or 48.7% Harris 47.7% Trump. Again, the final results are easily within the margin of errors.
We see the same sort of thing in other swing states like Michigan or North Carolina. From the places I looked at, where polls seem to have been the most off were actually the non-swing states; I don't think anyone sensible was expecting Trump to lose Texas, but even considering margins of error, he did better than expected.
The places where the polls seem to have been the most off were actually the non-swing states, like Texas. I don't think anyone reasonable was expecting Trump to lose Texas, but he still blasted past what the polls were saying (aggregate polling here gave us numbers like 44.4% Harris 51.8% Trump or 43.8% Harris 51.7% Trump. The final numbers were 42.38% Harris 56.22% Trump).
The real problem with the polls isn't the polls themselves, but how people misunderstand them. "The polls are too close to call" (which was true) gets misunderstood by the general public as expecting the final numbers to be extremely tight, which isn't what the polls are actually saying. Again, close polls can mean a razor-thin election decided by 0.1%, but can also mean a fairly comfortable win of 5%.
Last edited:
Upvote
0