- Mar 16, 2004
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That's cool. It means you actually understand something about evolution.
I know what the word means as defined in a scientific context and how it's different from a priori assumptions but thanks...I think...
Perhaps the vast majority of mutations are synonymous or deleterious, but advantageous mutations aren't nonexistant. And once they appear, they are fixed much more easily than a neutral mutation, not to mention a harmful one.
When did I say they were nonexistent? I am saying they simply don't account for a series of adaptations that triple the brain in size and complexity. Researchers have no problem with this, why should we?
I advise you to play with the free evolution simulator Populus. Quite cool; I've just done a few sims with it (single autosomal locus diallelic simulations, fyi). I gave the advantageous allele an initial frequency of 10^-5 (one copy in a population of 50 000), and tried selective advantages of 1%, 2%, 3%, 4%, 5% and 10%. For all but the 1% case the allele increased in frequency within 1000 generations, the maximum Populus can display (and from 4% upwards the allele tended to get fixed before 1000 generations). And that happened consistently in more than five runs per parameter value. With an initial frequency of 10^-6 (and I would think that implies a huge population size for an early hominid), the results were much the same, though I didn't do as many sims with that setting.
The frequency would have to be considerably higher but then again I have no idea where you coming from with this.
You see, it would seem that a mutation with only 2-3% of a selective advantage could conquer a population of 50 000 in a few hundred or thousand generations. And in a population of 50 000 there will be many mutations in each generation, some of which will probably be beneficial. (How long is that gene in question? It would be nice to actually calculate how many mutations are likely to arise within it per generation. Of course there will be fewer mutations in a smaller population, but they will also be quicker to get fixed if beneficial)
If memory serves the ASPM gene is 1300 base pairs long. The HARf is 118 with 18 substitutions, the ones in human lineages being unique. Again I'm not sure where you are coming from with this.
Besides, two million years is 80 000 human generations if we calculate with a 25-year generation time, which is probably a very conservative estimate for earlier humans. I mean, we didn't really start postponing children until Bridgetjonesian ages before the twentieth century, did we?
From 2 million years to roughly 1.5 million years the cranial capacity double. The stats have to be adjusted accordingly. Bear in mind that the Neanderthals had a cranial capacity 10% greater then our own. The thing is, this is not going to allow itself to be stretched over the many generations making a nice linear progression.
An interesting post though, I just think you are giving random mutations too much credit. There would have to be a molecular mechanism for an adaptation of this magnitude. Rest assured, it would in no way be mistaken for a spontaneous mutation.
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