Democrats a permanent minority?

[Always in His Presence]

Democrats a permanent minority?​

Their ideology problem is only getting worse.​

Democrats’ demographic problem is ideological: They’re becoming more liberal, but America remains more conservative.

What’s more, one of Democrats’ traditionally most important groups, young voters, is becoming more conservative, too. If they continue, these trends will lead Democrats into long-term minority status.

n politics, it is always dangerous to move away from the leading ideological group; it is even more so when you are moving so strongly toward the smallest ideological minority. Yet Democrats’ plight is worse still.

Obviously, the political answer for Democrats is to become more moderate. But as recent actions show, they’re not budging from their losing leftist ideology. If anything, they’re becoming more adamantly liberal.

 

[FireDragon76]

The Hill has a strong anti-establishment, folksy, pseudo-centrist streak, and are quite cynical at times, so of course they are going to blame everything on the supposed move of Democrats leftward.

Personally, I find The Hill morally unserious. It was bad when Crystal Ball was with them (even though she's on the Left, I don't like her one bit), and it's just as bad now that she left it. They seem to cynically court toxicity and clickbait more than truth.

 

[ozso]

Woke (liberalism on steroids) has gotten a lot of backlash. And the democrat party attached themselves so much to it, that voting democrat has become voting for more woke. Therefore those who don't want more woke, aren't likely to vote democrat. Trump of course took advantage of that by stomping the tar out of woke.

 

[Maria Billingsley]

Democrats a permanent minority?​

Their ideology problem is only getting worse.​

Democrats’ demographic problem is ideological: They’re becoming more liberal, but America remains more conservative.

What’s more, one of Democrats’ traditionally most important groups, young voters, is becoming more conservative, too. If they continue, these trends will lead Democrats into long-term minority status.

n politics, it is always dangerous to move away from the leading ideological group; it is even more so when you are moving so strongly toward the smallest ideological minority. Yet Democrats’ plight is worse still.

Obviously, the political answer for Democrats is to become more moderate. But as recent actions show, they’re not budging from their losing leftist ideology. If anything, they’re becoming more adamantly liberal.

A 1.47% difference between the two parties popularity is hardly worth touting the failure of the Democratics and deeming them a minority.

 

[Desk trauma]

<insert party here> did poorly last election cycle and is in the minority. <insert part here> clearly will remain so in perpetuity.

Change party as needed and republish every 2-4 years.

 

[ThatRobGuy]

I think perhaps a more accurate way to pose the question would be:
"will the party remain detached enough from the opinions of rank & file democrats, that they they'll lose votes to the other side or cause their own people to stay home?"

There's a few different datapoints one can look at:

Per pew research (pertaining to party identification - which doesn't always line up with registration):

• Direct party identification:
  • 33% identify as Democrats
  • 32% identify as Republicans
• Independents or other affiliations: 35%
  • Among these, 16% lean toward the Democratic Party, and 15% lean toward the Republican Party.

And per official voter registration tallies (across 31 states and DC) in the United States is as follows:

Party	Registered Voters	Percentage
Democratic	46,121,872	37.6%
Republican	36,556,705	29.8%
Unaffiliated/Independent	34,006,350	27.7%
Other	5,892,367	4.8%

According to exit polls, roughly 4-5% of self-identified democrats (which equates to just shy of 2 million people) voted for Trump in 2024.

Technically speaking every affiliation is a "minority" in that none have a Condorcet majority, and in order to win in a "2 team head-to-head battle", all would need to rely on at least some votes from one of the other 3 categories to get past the finish line.

Registered republicans are more of a minority than registered democrats at the moment.


I don't necessarily think that America is necessarily getting more conservative, I think it's more of a case where the Democratic party has moved to left on social issues at a quicker rate than a large chunk of the country (especially among independents)

Today's republicans & independents are more liberal on many of the social issues than Democrats from the late 90's.

Same pattern exists for attitudes about marijuana legalization, and we've seen numerous red states pass their own pro-pot and pro-abortion laws at a state level.


Here's the data point to note:

The Median 1994 democrat is closer to the Median 2017 republican than they are to the Median 2017 democrats

That's why independents are the key to winning elections in the US. And further (and faster) you move, the more you run the risk of leaving some people behind via ending up further away from them than the other party, and the more you need to appeal to independents to backfill those votes.


I think a 2012 Democrat would have beaten a 2024 Donald Trump.

 

[RoBo1988]

Democrats a permanent minority?​

Their ideology problem is only getting worse.​

Democrats’ demographic problem is ideological: They’re becoming more liberal, but America remains more conservative.

What’s more, one of Democrats’ traditionally most important groups, young voters, is becoming more conservative, too. If they continue, these trends will lead Democrats into long-term minority status.

n politics, it is always dangerous to move away from the leading ideological group; it is even more so when you are moving so strongly toward the smallest ideological minority. Yet Democrats’ plight is worse still.

Obviously, the political answer for Democrats is to become more moderate. But as recent actions show, they’re not budging from their losing leftist ideology. If anything, they’re becoming more adamantly liberal.

I ain't buying it.
I remember Republicans saying that kind of stuff after W Bush won, we know how that turned out.

Too many Republicans want to have the programs, and mad money just like their Democrat buddies. Democrats are usually guilty of overreach; Republicans are always guilty of laziness, lack of diligence, and wanting to be liked, invited to all the fancy parties.

I've said before, that there were a dozen other people I could have voted for instead of Trump. The Democrats won't admit it, but Kamala was an absolute stinker of a candidate, along with the backdrop of their "sharp as a tack" incumbent; leaving many with no where else to go.

Dump the social craziness, Get Andy Beshear to run, maybe they have a chance again.

 

[Yttrium]

We'll see how well MAGA popularity is going in the next mid-term elections. I suspect Democrats will make a comeback, unless Trump finds a way (legal or otherwise) to prevent it.

 

[probinson]

What Democrats really need is more old guys shaking sticks at Trump while he is speaking.

 

[Akita Suggagaki]

We'll see how well MAGA popularity is going in the next mid-term elections. I suspect Democrats will make a comeback, unless Trump finds a way (legal or otherwise) to prevent it.

But they need to shift a bit more to the center. If not Principles and Platform — American Solidarity Party

 

[Always in His Presence]

From the link:

According to a recent Gallup poll, for the third year in a row, Republicans led Democrats among voters who identified with one of the two parties or leaned toward it. In 2024, the Republicans’ lead was 46-45 percent; in 2023, it was 45-43 percent and in 2022, it was 45-44 percent.​

​

Prior to these three years, the last time Gallup found Republicans leading in this metric was 1991; the last time Republicans were even tied was 2011.​

​

If this is bad news for Democrats, there’s still worse. Gallup also found that liberals are still America’s smallest ideological group — 25 percent of the public versus 37 percent conservatives and 34 percent moderates — even as Democrats become decidedly more liberal. In 2024, Gallup found that liberals comprised 55 percent of the party — an all-time high.​

 

[Always in His Presence]

In just one generation, then, liberals have doubled their percentage within the Democratic Party.​

​

In politics, it is always dangerous to move away from the leading ideological group; it is even more so when you are moving so strongly toward the smallest ideological minority. Yet Democrats’ plight is worse still.​

​

Over the last three years, Republicans have made notable gains with many demographic groups — from 27 percent to 36 percent among Hispanics and from 12 percent to 17 percent among Blacks. However, their improvement from 33 percent to 39 percent of young voters is especially significant. Not only has this been a particularly strong Democrat bloc historically, but age cohorts exhibit a pattern of becoming more conservative over time.​

 

[Yttrium]

But they need to shift a bit more to the center. If not Principles and Platform — American Solidarity Party

Not if the MAGA Party messes things up enough.

 

[Akita Suggagaki]

Not if the MAGA Party messes things up enough.

They are beyond rationality but if they do not splinter they will persist.

 

[Yttrium]

They are beyond rationality but if they do not splinter they will persist.

Doesn't matter if they persist or not. If they mess things up enough, independents will swing back to the Democrats.

 

[dogs4thewin]

We'll see how well MAGA popularity is going in the next mid-term elections. I suspect Democrats will make a comeback, unless Trump finds a way (legal or otherwise) to prevent it.

It may depend on whether things improve. Sometimes pain comes before improvement if for example in the next few months (far enough from the next election to not be well it's election time things improve gas gets cheaper, food prices go down, people have more disposable income ECT then the stock market and whatever else bad that happened these first few months will not be as much of an issue. On the other hand if little changes for the average Joe or things get worse then Trump and republicans may have a problem.

 

[loveofourlord]

Democrats a permanent minority?​

Their ideology problem is only getting worse.​

Democrats’ demographic problem is ideological: They’re becoming more liberal, but America remains more conservative.

What’s more, one of Democrats’ traditionally most important groups, young voters, is becoming more conservative, too. If they continue, these trends will lead Democrats into long-term minority status.

n politics, it is always dangerous to move away from the leading ideological group; it is even more so when you are moving so strongly toward the smallest ideological minority. Yet Democrats’ plight is worse still.

Obviously, the political answer for Democrats is to become more moderate. But as recent actions show, they’re not budging from their losing leftist ideology. If anything, they’re becoming more adamantly liberal.

really more conservative?

60%+ support the following things.
gay rights
climate change
gun control
taxing the rich

among others I can't remember off hand.

 

[Always in His Presence]

really more conservative?

60%+ support the following things.
gay rights
climate change
gun control
taxing the rich

among others I can't remember off hand.

Link?

60% of whom?

 

[Yttrium]

Sometimes pain comes before improvement

Oh, we haven't felt the pain yet. Give it a year. Watch the government backlogs in services to grow to absurd levels. Watch how women and minorities react to Trump stomping on their pride and recognition. See how taking a hacksaw to the economy and environment work out. Should be enlightening.

 

[Akita Suggagaki]

climate change

This is one issue that really should not be partisan.
And yet in this tribal country, it has become so like everything else.