Cyclone approaching

[Bob Crowley]

It appears we're in line for a close encounter with a cyclone where I live near Brisbane in Queensland. It's been a long time since the last one got this close.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred forecast to make landfall as first cyclone to hit southeast Queensland in 50 years

Cyclone Alfred is forecast to make landfall over southeastern Queensland on Thursday, or early Friday, March 6-7, 2025. It would be the first cyclone to make landfall over the region in nearly 50…

watchers.news

Way back in 1974 a rain depression from Cyclone Wanda caused massive flooding in Brisbane and surrounding areas. We had about 3 feet of water under the house, and the people next door had it up to their floorboards as their home was low set.

We're safe from flooding ourselves as we're up reasonably high but there could be strong winds, fallen trees, power blackouts and so on.

Predictions are that it is supposed to hit land sometime on Thursday, but the exact location is not certain. It could be anywhere from around Noosa at the north end of the Sunshine Coast to the Gold Coast in the south. Northern New South Wales will cop some of it as well.

 

[Bob Crowley]

Where I live the cyclone has so far been a bit of a fizzer, but we're about 30kms from the coast. We haven't had a lot of rain or even particularly strong winds other than a few gusts. We've been lucky I suppose.

This link is the current weather radar with a 256km radius. You can see the eye hasn't yet made landfall, so we're still waiting on that.

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR662.loop.shtml#skip

The Gold Coast and Northern New South Wales south of Brisbane have borne the brunt of the impact so far. About 40,000 homes are without power, a few homes have been destroyed and a lot of trees have come down.

Cyclones in East Australia tend to be most damaging on their southern sides as the clockwise motion drives winds with water towards the land. In the north the winds are coming off the land and are not so laden with moisture.

Supposedly the eye should make landfall sometime tonight. It's been a slow moving system, and it will be good when its finished.

There's a pot pourri of news events here -

Live: Winds increasing, 40,000 homes already without power as Alfred approaches

Tropical Cyclone Alfred's centre is expected to cross the coast Saturday morning, with impacts already being felt across south-east Queensland and northern NSW.

www.abc.net.au

PS - I live just south of Brisbane (about 8kms to the nearest boundary) so we're also unlikely to cop the worst of the wind.

Brisbane 'unlikely' to see destructive winds as cyclone forecast to weaken

Brisbane is "unlikely" to see destructive winds with Cyclone Alfred forecast to weaken to a category one system as it moves across Moreton Bay islands on Saturday morning.

www.abc.net.au

To put the protection from Moreton Bay Islands into perspective, I've attached the following map.

Bribie Island in the north, Moreton Island and North Stradbroke protect Moreton Bay from the most damaging of the winds and waves.

What we call the "Sunshine Coast" is to the north of Bribie Island (Caloundra at the southern end is opposite the very northern tip of Bribie Island, although some of the narrow stretch of island was breached by the cyclone).

The "Gold Coast" is in the south and starts just about where South Stradbroke Island finishes. The Sunshine Coast, Gold Coast and the Bay Islands themselves get direct surf and there's been a lot of beach erosion from the cyclone, particularly on the Gold Coast and further south in northern New South Wales.

 

[Bob Crowley]

Update - the cyclone is now a tropical low but the rain and wind are still hanging around as the latest weather radar shows. Note that this will change and in a couple of days might be clear.

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR662.loop.shtml#skip

I don't know how accurate this figure is but at the worst point around 300,000 households were without power ranging from Brisbane down to the Northern New South Wales area. No doubt the authorities will get on top of it eventually, but there would be a lot of fallen trees to be cleared first which will take time.

So far I think there has only been one death - a chap tried to drive through floodwaters despite the repeated warnings not to. There's been a few injuries. Some soldiers in the Defence forces were injured when two ADF vehicles collided and one rolled.

Due to beach erosion some Gold Coast beaches now have 4 and 5 metre sand cliffs where previously there had been gently sloping beaches.

We're OK ourselves and didn't even lose power although at least one of the three Catholic Churches in our parish lost power for about 12 hours (so I believe). I'll be checking on some food supplies in our Vinnies freezer tomorrow to see how they fared in the blackout.

Cyclones don't usually come this far south. They're normally a tropical phenomenon much further north. We're used to having the occasional severe flood but cyclones are a rare experience. I hope climate warming isn't a signal we can expect more of them due to warming seas as they need water temperatures above 26.5 degrees celsius to maintain their existence.

 

[Bob Crowley]

Update 3 - The rain has been heavier in our area since the cyclone was downgraded to a tropical low.

Some idea of beach damage is shown in the following article. Fortunately the Gold Coast was protected by a sea wall, and while the beaches were damaged, the roads and buildings behind the wall have remained intact. Eventually the sand will be replaced by the ocean or the sand pumping system that is in place.

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Alfred gouges 500km of coastline

Ex-Cyclone Alfred has caused beach erosion so extreme, it's left escarpments up to six-metres high in some dunes, including on iconic Gold Coast tourist stretches.

www.abc.net.au

The heavier rain after the cyclone was downgraded reminds me of the 1974 floods in Brisbane. That was caused by a rain depression following a cyclone which actually made landfall quite some distance to the north. But in usual fashion most of the wind and rain occurred further south.

We've still got a day or so before it peters out according to the meteorologists. Flooding is the main threat now apart from thousands of households without power.

I suppose the cylcone gives some idea of God's power. He's set the system so that the colossal energy beamed out by the sun, circulated by the wind and water, and packed into atoms by the nuclear strong force, is balanced so that all we experience most of the time is "just another nice day..."

It's a reminder of Christ's comment about God's judgement -

Luke 12:5 NIV "But I will show you whom you should fear: Fear him who, after your body has been killed, has authority to throw you into hell. Yes, I tell you, fear him."

 

[Bob Crowley]

Update 4 - A close shave

The five minutes that changed everything for this Gold Coast family

A series of decisions made by Daniel Spindler and his wife saved them from a once-in-a-generation cyclone after a tree came crashing through their dining room.

www.abc.net.au

 

[Learning always]

Update 4 - A close shave

The five minutes that changed everything for this Gold Coast family

A series of decisions made by Daniel Spindler and his wife saved them from a once-in-a-generation cyclone after a tree came crashing through their dining room.

www.abc.net.au

Are you & family ok?

 

[Bob Crowley]

We're fine. We've had more rain since yesterday but we've been lucky enough not to lose power. There's been a few thousand in the suburbs around us who weren't so fortunate. The church I went to this morning lost power yesterday for some hours, but the power crews have fixed up that one. They've got another 250,000 households to bring online over the next few days.

Fallen trees are a big part of the problem.

It's still raining now for the record. It's been continuous since yesterday but it hasn't been heavy where we are.

The hinterland of the Gold Coast is renowned for heavy rainfall at times. A place called Springbrook up in the hills had 809 mm (2.65 feet) in one day and weekly falls are expected to exceed a metre.

There will be some flooding and that's another issue.

But we're OK.

 

[Bob Crowley]

A shipwreck has come into view due to the cyclone. Ballina is a town in Northern New South Wales and apparently is a shipwreck graveyard.

Ex-Cyclone Alfred unearths historic ship 'The Comet' in Ballina waters

The ship from the 1890s, uncovered at a popular swimming beach at Ballina, is believed to be the remnants of paddle steamer The Comet.

www.abc.net.au

In the early days of settlement there were no railways or worthwhile roads to Sydney or the main cities, so ships were used to carry everything.

A fellow parishioner who used to live in a place called Coffs Harbour (about 40% of the way to to Sydney from Brisbane) said he could remember from his childhood days when the supply boats would come in.

 

[Bob Crowley]

Final update - the rain is pretty well over along with the strong winds. But there's a lot of cleaning up to do with 1000 fallen trees to be removed, some of them disrupting power supplies.

As of 9 hours ago there were still 220,000 households and businesses without power in SE Queensland and more over the border in northern New South Wales. They can't charge their phones, use their credit cards online, or fill up their vehicles unless they've got cash. Food probably has to be thrown out and unless they've got gas burners they are unable to prepare food.

Batteries could fortify the grid as Alfred lays bare vulnerability

With hundreds of thousands of homes and businesses across southern Queensland and northern New South Wales without power, questions are inevitably turning to the strength of the electricity system.

www.abc.net.au

The article also discusses making our power system more resilient. While household batteries might help for a while, if the sun stops shining for a couple of days they no longer work either. Battery stations might be part of the solution. Underground power is more resilient, but far more expensive. Part of our problem is that we have 27 million people spread over about 8 million square kilometres, although most of us live in a handful of large cities.

There is some flooding, with flood watches being declared on some rivers. Fortunately the Brisbane River didn't flood this time, although there was local flooding in various parts.

One thing that did surprise us was flooding in a place called Hervey Bay which really wasn't in the cyclone area. We spent a week there a few months ago, and I found it difficult to accept the amount of water running through some of the streets.

Other than that it's pretty much over apart from a massive clean up job, and thoughts on what we can do to reduce the effects of future events. But when these massive natural disasters occur, there's a limit to what anybody can do.

Only King Canute's think they can hold back the tide.

 

[RileyG]

Oh no! Stay safe all!

 

[Bob Crowley]

It's all over bar the shouting for most people. There are still a lot of properties without power especially in the Gold Coast hinterland. I suppose still about 30,000 or so.

Some flooding but not too bad. Beach erosion will take a long time to recover and Gold Coast is a beach tourist attraction.

Tii next time...

Post Script - It's been almost a week since ex-Tropical Cyclone Alfred lashed the east coast but thousands remain without power.

More than 30,000 properties remain without power across south-east Queensland, with about half of the outages on the Gold Coast.

Crews have already restored power to more than 400,000 homes and businesses impacted by the cyclone, according to Energex spokesman Danny Donald.

"Ninety per cent of cyclone affected south-east Queensland homes now have their lights back on," Mr Donald said.

Energex crews 'literally with machetes' as recovery turns to challenging areas

More than 33,000 properties remain without power across south-east Queensland, with about half of the outages on the Gold Coast

www.abc.net.au