Creationists: can you explain post-Flood repopulation? (2)

[Astrid]

How what is done ?

Considering flood / no flood just a matter of opinion.

 

[samiam]

Amen, brother, and praise the LORD!

In case anyone brings up what Ham did in his father's tent that day, here's my take on it:

Ham didn't do anything to Noah, he did it with his mother (Noah's wife).

This is actually very helpful. When we were reading Genesis 9 last week, we were all scratching our heads about why God would be so harsh about someone accidentally seeing their father naked. I appreciate and will share with my Bible study your insight.

It’s very spiritually healthy to read the entire Bible with a group of friends. It has made me a lot more open minded and tolerant. We have everyone from the very liberal to the very conservative in our group. While on Twitter and social media Democrats and Republicans are screaming at each other, in our group Democrats and Republicans are loving (i.e. Agape) each other and finding common ground.

 

[AV1611VET]

This is actually very helpful. When we were reading Genesis 9 last week, we were all scratching our heads about why God would be so harsh about someone accidentally seeing their father naked. I appreciate and will share with my Bible study your insight.

It’s very spiritually healthy to read the entire Bible with a group of friends. It has made me a lot more open minded and tolerant. We have everyone from the very liberal to the very conservative in our group. While on Twitter and social media Democrats and Republicans are screaming at each other, in our group Democrats and Republicans are loving (i.e. Agape) each other and finding common ground.

Amen to that!

(For the record, I'd fall into the category of "very conservative".)

God bless!

 

[BPPLEE]

Considering flood / no flood just a matter of opinion.

We've been over all this before.

 

[Astrid]

We've been over all this before.

Maybe you will figure it out some day

 

[samiam]

Going back to the topic of this thread, Creation Ministries International has also made a computer model of population growth, based on real world data: Biblical human population growth model - creation.com

A model I have, which, yes, includes death, not immediately getting pregnant after giving birth, etc. has the population go from eight people to 3,183 people in 100 years (6.17% annual growth per year), and from 3,183 people to 770,321 in the subsequent 100 years (5.64% annual growth per year). In only 250 years, the population goes from eight to 12,095,202 people.

One timeline based on a literal interpretation of the Bible puts the date of around 3250 BC when Noah left the ark: Flavius Josephus Genesis Chronology: 70 AD Creation 5467 BC

Based on this, we can have 12 million people by 3000 BC.

I was not expecting numbers like this when I built the model, but accepted the result once the simulation was done. I ran the model with an open mind to its results, as per what a good scientist does.

The models where there are only 13 people to build the pyramids, as seen at CB620: Population growth or similar numbers at archive.ph do not reflect what computer simulations come up with.

While there are other issues with a post-flood timeline, repopulating the world after Noah and his family leaves the ark isn’t one of them. Whataboutism is a poor form of argument, and this thread is about the particular issue with post-flood repopulation. And, yes, considering this is Christianforums and not a some Atheism forum, it’s completely appropriate for conservatives to add “GodDidIt” as needed for things like the genetic model (but I do welcome links to papers with a genetic model).

I am sure the atheists here will call me names and say mean things about me personally for bringing this up, because some have already done so. Thankfully, Christianforums has a good “ignore user” file, so I will continue to killfile (ignore) the atheists who can not have a civil discussion when presented with anything that challenges their world view. Civil atheists will not be killfiled; I welcome constructive discussion.

 

[AV1611VET]

I am sure the atheists here will call me names and say mean things about me personally for bringing this up, because some have already done so.

We like to play Bingo!

 

[DialecticSkeptic]

I am all for showing respect for people.

Americans are not necessarily good at showing
normal courtesy of respect for women, Asians, or
"short people", which I am all three.
I results in a degree of pugnacity on my part-a normal
kind of response.
Just mentioned by way of saying respect for persons
is a value I understand.

Respect for ideas and beliefs is an entirely different
matter.

To be fair, I am not good at showing respect either. (Americans definitely are not the only ones.) I do show respect to others with as much consistency as possible, but it takes a great deal of effort. I am constantly having to check myself, remind myself, and chastize myself. In forums like these, my responses can take hours or days to be posted because I am having to proof-read and edit what I had written.

But it's worth it.

 

[Hans Blaster]

Going back to the topic of this thread, Creation Ministries International has also made a computer model of population growth, based on real world data: Biblical human population growth model - creation.com

A model I have, which, yes, includes death, not immediately getting pregnant after giving birth, etc. has the population go from eight people to 3,183 people in 100 years (6.17% annual growth per year), and from 3,183 people to 770,321 in the subsequent 100 years (5.64% annual growth per year). In only 250 years, the population goes from eight to 12,095,202 people.

One timeline based on a literal interpretation of the Bible puts the date of around 3250 BC when Noah left the ark: Flavius Josephus Genesis Chronology: 70 AD Creation 5467 BC

Based on this, we can have 12 million people by 3000 BC.

I was not expecting numbers like this when I built the model, but accepted the result once the simulation was done. I ran the model with an open mind to its results, as per what a good scientist does.

The models where there are only 13 people to build the pyramids, as seen at CB620: Population growth or similar numbers at archive.ph do not reflect what computer simulations come up with.

The CMI model seems to have some rather questionable parameter values. These include minimum 1-year interval between births, an 88% probability of pregnancy per year, and some rather long looking termination of childbearing, though on the last item the text was a bit confusing. There was no distribution of children/women that we can compare and assess realism. The choice of modern (1st world) mortality tables seems rather unrealistic.

 

[samiam]

We like to play Bingo!

I’m surprised GodDidIt didn’t make it to that Bingo chart. One thing I have seen among strong atheists is an almost, well, religious level of offense to “GodDidIt” solutions to issues with the young earth model. For the record, I’m of the old earth model but have friends with a young earth model, and their friendship is far more important to me than being dogmatic about the age of the earth.

The CMI model seems to have some rather questionable parameter values.

The highest ever known population increase rate I know of comes from 1971, when we had a 2.1% population increase. The models need a 5%-10% annual population increase to go from eight people to enough people to make the pyramids in a couple hundred of years.

Ignoring pre-2000BCE Egypt, as CMI does, and saying we need to go from eight to “several million” people in 215 years (so we have enough people in Egypt and in the Israeli exodus for the story to make sense, and assuming “several million” is actually five million) requires a worldwide 7.4% annual human population growth, which has never been seen in known recorded history. I can and CMI can model that kind of population growth in a computer, but it hasn’t been seen in the real world.

 

[Hans Blaster]

The highest ever known population increase rate I know of comes from 1971, when we had a 2.1% population increase. The models need a 5%-10% annual population increase to go from eight people to enough people to make the pyramids in a couple hundred of years.

Ignoring pre-2000BCE Egypt, as CMI does, and saying we need to go from eight to “several million” people in 215 years (so we have enough people in Egypt and in the Israeli exodus for the story to make sense, and assuming “several million” is actually five million) requires a worldwide 7.4% annual human population growth, which has never been seen in known recorded history. I can and CMI can model that kind of population growth in a computer, but it hasn’t been seen in the real world.

If it hasn't been seen in the real world then, does it make a realistic model?

How much of this disconnection from reality is driven by the extreme fecundity generated by the model?

 

[samiam]

does it make a realistic model?

I’ll leave that question for readers to answer. I can not comment on the details of the CMI model, but I can give details of my own model where we go from eight people to 12 million people in 250 years:

• 48% of births are male, 52% are female
• The CMI model checks to see if a woman is married before allowing her to become pregnant. I don’t bother with that; I just assume that, in light of the people obeying Genesis 9:1 and Genesis 9:7, any woman who becomes widowed or divorced is married with someone else right away. There’s a reason men had multiple wives in ancient times: It allowed every woman a chance to become pregnant.
  
• All women between the ages of 14 and 40, if not pregnant, have an 8% chance of becoming pregnant every week.
• Every week a woman is pregnant, there is an 0.2% chance of her having a miscarriage, so roughly 8% of pregnancies have a chance of not coming to term.
• A woman gives birth 40 weeks after getting pregnant.
• There is a 5% chance of having twins, and a 0.05% chance of having triplets
• Any week, for every single man, woman, and child in the population, there is a 0.1% chance that person will die.
• To avoid inaccuracies that the CMI model has, which only updates the population once a year, the population is updated every week in the model.
• Every year has precisely 52 weeks.

 

[ruthiesea]

It as been estimated that a human population of at least 400 would be required to result in sufficient genetic diversity to allow for a long term, successful population.

 

[Astrid]

It as been estimated that a human population of at least 400 would be required to result in sufficient genetic diversity to allow for a long term, successful population.

Lots of good stories, some of them true
are about very improbable things happening.

It spoils the interest and credibility to
have impossible elements.

 

[AV1611VET]

It as been estimated that a human population of at least 400 would be required to result in sufficient genetic diversity to allow for a long term, successful population.

How about the animals?

 

[Astrid]

I can't believe that in the year 2022 people are actually discussing how the world was repopulated by an amatuer zoo keeper/sailer and his family.

How many angels can dance on the head of a needle got boring?

 

[AV1611VET]

I can't believe that in the year 2022 people are actually discussing how the world was repopulated by an amatuer zoo keeper/sailer and his family.

It's hard being an atheist, isn't it?

 

[samiam]

I can't believe that in the year 2022 people are actually discussing how the world was repopulated by an amatuer zoo keeper/sailer and his family.

I don’t know how things are in England (but I have family there so I should ask them), but here in the states about 40% of the people believe that God created humans in our present form 10,000 years ago and while the number seems to be decreasing the number bounced back up a bit in 2019. I felt shocked and angry when I realized how widespread it is in the states, and it took me a long time to accept and tolerate that belief system.

At least the obnoxious Kent Hovind isn’t around any more after being arrested.

 

[AV1611VET]

I felt shocked and angry when I realized how widespread it is in the states, and it took me a long time to accept and tolerate that belief system.

The tares are starting to outgrow the wheat, aren't they?

 

[Astrid]

I don’t know how things are in England (but I have family there so I should ask them), but here in the states about 40% of the people believe that God created humans in our present form 10,000 years ago and while the number seems to be decreasing the number bounced back up a bit in 2019. I felt shocked and angry when I realized how widespread it is in the states, and it took me a long time to accept and tolerate that belief system.

At least the obnoxious Kent Hovind isn’t around any more after being arrested.

I didn't know anyone actually believed
that stuff, before I went to the USA for Uni.

You know, we love our dragons here,
but don't exactly expect to see a real one.

We observe the regressive anti- education,
anti intellectual culture of Afghanistan and
recognize the effect it has on the nation.

Such cannot be good for the future of America
either.