Covid - Two Paths

Shrewd Manager · Jul 24, 2020

If you could help save the world and future generations, but had to take a 1 in 10,000, 5,000 or 1,000 risk of dying in the process, would you take that chance?

In Australia, the current chances of a normal healthy individual who gets diagnosed with Covid-19 dying from it are less than 1 in 10,000. The average age of Covid deaths is around 80. Average life expectancy is around 82 years of age.

The ongoing and permanent damage to society, the economy, livelihoods, the mental and physical health and wellbeing of ordinary people under severe countermeasures is incalculable.

The risks of health impacts for poorly tested vaccines, their efficacy and the delays in preparing them create additional uncertainty.

If nature were to run its course, and everyone caught Covid-19, the body would produce a natural immunity to what is essentially another cold and flu strain.

So why not take the chance, have faith in God, let nature run its course, return to normal life and be honoured by your children for your contribution to saving the world and beating the bug?

Kaon · Jul 24, 2020

Shrewd Manager said:
If you could help save the world and future generations, but had to take a 1 in 10,000, 5,000 or 1,000 risk of dying in the process, would you take that chance?

In Australia, the current chances of a normal healthy individual who gets diagnosed with Covid-19 dying from it are less than 1 in 10,000. The average age of Covid deaths is around 80. Average life expectancy is around 82 years of age.

The ongoing and permanent damage to society, the economy, livelihoods, the mental and physical health and wellbeing of ordinary people under severe countermeasures is incalculable.

The risks of health impacts for poorly tested vaccines, their efficacy and the delays in preparing them create additional uncertainty.

If nature were to run its course, and everyone caught Covid-19, the body would produce a natural immunity to what is essentially another cold and flu strain.

So why not take the chance, have faith in God, let nature run its course, return to normal life and be honoured by your children for your contribution to saving the world and beating the bug?

No.

Someone already saved the world. The world will continue to repeat its degeneracy ad infinitum - no matter how many well-intention acts or discoveries are forged.

Shrewd Manager · Jul 24, 2020

Kaon said:
No.

Someone already saved the world. The world will continue to repeat its degeneracy ad infinitum - no matter how many well-intention acts or discoveries are forged.

Ah I see, so invoking Christianity and destiny is actually a justification of the abdication of personal moral responsibility. Go hide in the clefts in the rock mate.

JackRT · Jul 24, 2020

Shrewd Manager said:
So why not take the chance, have faith in God, let nature run its course, return to normal life and be honoured by your children for your contribution to saving the world and beating the bug?

So doing nothing and letting grandma and grandpa die? At the moment they are well protected but COVID is now rampant in the under 40 age group. Let them die too?

Paidiske · Jul 24, 2020

In Australia, we have had 13,595 confirmed infections, and 139 deaths. That isn't a mortality rate of one in ten thousand, or even on in a thousand; it's about one in a hundred.

Now, I'm relatively young and healthy, and it's true that my personal risk of dying from this is probably better than many. For my own self I might be prepared to risk exposure and ride it out so that I and my family could live "normally." But if I were to become infected, and live my life as normal while asymptomatic or with mild symptoms, I could easily infect many who would die. And not all of them would be close to the natural term of their lives.

A death toll of one in a hundred people, over the population of Australia, would mean about two hundred and fifty thousand deaths, over a relatively short space of time. We simply are not prepared to lose that many people in one hit. And I don't mean on an emotional level; our hospitals, our mortuaries, our basic social and economic infrastructure, would be overwhelmed and crippled by that.

There is no easy or simplistic path out of this. While I might quibble with the detail of some of the restrictions, and how they have played out, I understand that at a population level we simply must drastically reduce the level of interpersonal contact to avoid that nightmare scenario of two hundred and fifty thousand deaths.

Any of us who refuse to play our part in that reduction aren't "saving the world," we are making the situation even more difficult and complicated and likely to stretch out for longer and be more costly, in human terms.

(Edited to correct my pre-caffeine maths).

Kaon · Jul 24, 2020

Shrewd Manager said:
Ah I see, so invoking Christianity and destiny is actually a justification of the abdication of personal moral responsibility. Go hide in the clefts in the rock mate.

I am being wise as a serpent.

Humans killed the Redeemer. Humans use scientific knowledge for profit and war. Humans kill each other for fun. The Redeemer came to save all those who want real life - meaning this trivial, trite and ephemeral plane of existence is a facsimile of real life with the Father.

If you try to save your life, you will lose it. Sacrificing one's self for humanity (when humanity doesn't really care for the individual, and there has already been a Savior of the world) is a romantic gesture. Individually is a different story, however: connections between individuals are complex. We were told specific details of the time of the end, how people will behave, and how we should behave. The world has already been saved; people choose to live in this degeneracy - attempting to make it a "heaven"on earth: leave those people to their devices.

The world, however, is in competition with itself. We are charged to be wise as serpents and gentle as doves. When nations kill their own citizens, slavery abounds and the best others can do is scoff when they hear of these horrors, you leave them to their own devices until they want help. Then, they become individually responsible for the information they receive.

But, if this flesh body is a facsimile/shadow of real life, why would I give my life to protect mortals who have 1) already been saved, and 2) would kill me for trying to save them even if it wasn't necessary for me to die.

It is, in my opinion, asinine. We are dead; we have "on loan" spirit that allows us to be able to realize our degeneracy - and possibly change it - but, we are animated matter that dies anyway; spirit doesn't die, and you don't get your spiritual origin trying to align with the precepts of material life.

Also, morality is subjective, and only for entities that die: it is a best-case (flawed) codex for keeping humans from killing each other to extinction.

PloverWing · Jul 24, 2020

Shrewd Manager said:
If nature were to run its course, and everyone caught Covid-19, the body would produce a natural immunity to what is essentially another cold and flu strain.

So why not take the chance, have faith in God, let nature run its course, return to normal life and be honoured by your children for your contribution to saving the world and beating the bug?

What is your source for the 1/10,000 number? The Johns Hopkins statistics at Mortality Analyses show different numbers -- about 3.6% mortality per diagnosed case in the US, 1% in Australia.

I am, in a sense, grateful for the robust immune system that I inherited from my European ancestors who survived the Black Death and passed their genes on to me. I am, nevertheless, sad for the lives lost in the Black Death and other European plagues. Natural selection works -- a couple of centuries from now, there will probably be more resistance to COVID-19 in the human population, passed on by those who survive now -- but natural selection is costly to the individuals who get selected out.

Given that humans now have the ability to develop vaccines, I'm going to do my part to save the world by limiting social contact until the scientists find a vaccine. It's less harsh than letting myself and my neighbors get selected out.

Occams Barber · Jul 24, 2020

Shrewd Manager said:
If you could help save the world and future generations, but had to take a 1 in 10,000, 5,000 or 1,000 risk of dying in the process, would you take that chance?

In Australia, the current chances of a normal healthy individual who gets diagnosed with Covid-19 dying from it are less than 1 in 10,000. The average age of Covid deaths is around 80. Average life expectancy is around 82 years of age.

The ongoing and permanent damage to society, the economy, livelihoods, the mental and physical health and wellbeing of ordinary people under severe countermeasures is incalculable.

The risks of health impacts for poorly tested vaccines, their efficacy and the delays in preparing them create additional uncertainty.

If nature were to run its course, and everyone caught Covid-19, the body would produce a natural immunity to what is essentially another cold and flu strain.

So why not take the chance, have faith in God, let nature run its course, return to normal life and be honoured by your children for your contribution to saving the world and beating the bug?

You want me to save the kiddies from lockdown boredom by throwing my ageing, useless self on the fire?

Gladly. Where do I sign up?
OB

Philip_B · Jul 24, 2020

Shrewd Manager said:
If you could help save the world and future generations, but had to take a 1 in 10,000, 5,000 or 1,000 risk of dying in the process, would you take that chance?

In Australia, the current chances of a normal healthy individual who gets diagnosed with Covid-19 dying from it are less than 1 in 10,000. The average age of Covid deaths is around 80. Average life expectancy is around 82 years of age.

The ongoing and permanent damage to society, the economy, livelihoods, the mental and physical health and wellbeing of ordinary people under severe countermeasures is incalculable.

The risks of health impacts for poorly tested vaccines, their efficacy and the delays in preparing them create additional uncertainty.

If nature were to run its course, and everyone caught Covid-19, the body would produce a natural immunity to what is essentially another cold and flu strain.

So why not take the chance, have faith in God, let nature run its course, return to normal life and be honoured by your children for your contribution to saving the world and beating the bug?

Worldwide

Caseload is 15,7000,000
Death Toll is 638,000.
This is a Case Fatality Load of 4.06%,or essentially 1 in 25.

Australia

Caseload is 13,595
Death Toll is 139
This is a Case Fatality Load of 1.02%,or essentially 1 in 100

This is just maths, and you can do it for any nation on earth. The raw data is here.

https://news.google.com/covid19/map?hl=en-AU&gl=AU&ceid=AU:en

Faith in God, leads to a response, and part of that response in love one for the other. So we conclude that we will take a financial hit for the good of all.

Sidebar: given that we have something like 60 million people who are refugees, asylum seekers and internally displaced persons, and I wonder what the case fatality load is like amongst them. Worse I suspect.

Shrewd Manager · Jul 24, 2020

Paidiske said:
In Australia, we have had 13,595 confirmed infections, and 139 deaths. That isn't a mortality rate of one in ten thousand, or even on in a thousand; it's about one in a hundred.

With the average age of 80 and on extremely generous analysis, seeing as all those ppl have co-morbidities, the PCR test is by the authorites' own admission at best 50% accurate, and in Victoria the gov policy is for doctors not to advise of false positives.

So again, for otherwise healthy ppl below the age of 60 the chances are about that of the flu.

There's no 'suddenly the sky will fall'. Either have faith in God, or stop pretending to be Christian, so I've heard it said.

keith99 · Jul 24, 2020

Philip_B said:
Worldwide

Caseload is 15,7000,000

Death Toll is 638,000.

This is a Case Fatality Load of 4.06%,or essentially 1 in 25.

Australia

Caseload is 13,595

Death Toll is 139

This is a Case Fatality Load of 1.02%,or essentially 1 in 100

This is just maths, and you can do it for any nation on earth. The raw data is here.

https://news.google.com/covid19/map?hl=en-AU&gl=AU&ceid=AU:en

Faith in God, leads to a response, and part of that response in love one for the other. So we conclude that we will take a financial hit for the good of all.

Sidebar: given that we have something like 60 million people who are refugees, asylum seekers and internally displaced persons, and I wonder what the case fatality load is like amongst them. Worse I suspect.

From what I understand about the situation in Australia new cases get caught early and and there are ample resources available for treatment. That does a lot to keep the death rate low. My guess is most Australians will prefer to keep it that way.

Shrewd Manager · Jul 24, 2020

PloverWing said:
What is your source for the 1/10,000 number? The Johns Hopkins statistics at Mortality Analyses show different numbers -- about 3.6% mortality per diagnosed case in the US, 1% in Australia.

One in 10,000 is in relation to normal healthy individuals under the age of say 60 in Australia, taking into account the >50% unreliability of the PCR tests and the reporting of 'deaths with covid' as 'deaths by covid', eg pre-existing illnesses, co-morbidities, ppl hit by cars and the like.

Philip_B said:
Faith in God, leads to a response, and part of that response in love one for the other. So we conclude that we will take a financial hit for the good of all.

Faith in God means letting nature take it's course in this context, does it not?

Shrewd Manager · Jul 24, 2020

keith99 said:
there are ample resources available for treatment.

What treatment? Even more reason then, is it not, to take steps in faith that with treatment and acquired immunity, plus a few commonsense measures, things will improve?

Paidiske · Jul 24, 2020

Shrewd Manager said:
Faith in God means letting nature take it's course in this context, does it not?

No. Even St. James reminds us that faith ought to motivate us to take action:

"What good is it, my brothers and sisters, if you say you have faith but do not have works? Can faith save you? If a brother or sister is naked and lacks daily food, and one of you says to them, ‘Go in peace; keep warm and eat your fill’, and yet you do not supply their bodily needs, what is the good of that? So faith by itself, if it has no works, is dead."

Might well be paraphrased for our current situation:

"What good is it, my brothers and sisters, if you say you have faith but do not have works? Can faith save you? If a brother or sister is vulnerable to infection, and one of you says to them, ‘Go in peace; keep healthy and safe’, and yet you do not practice social distancing, what is the good of that? So faith by itself, if it has no works, is dead."

Shrewd Manager · Jul 24, 2020

Occams Barber said:
You want me to save the kiddies from lockdown boredom by throwing my ageing, useless self on the fire?

Gladly. Where do I sign up?
OB

That's funny, but if it is a question of the greater good, and you only had a couple of years left, would you take a 1 in 100 chance of dying now if you knew it would help the lives of many?

mama2one · Jul 24, 2020

Occams Barber · Jul 24, 2020

Shrewd Manager said:
That's funny, but if it is a question of the greater good, and you only had a couple of years left, would you take a 1 in 100 chance of dying now if you knew it would help the lives of many?

"help the lives of many" or "greater good" are far too vague as reasons for potential self sacrifice. I'm also wondering how I'd know that I "only had a couple of years left".

If we put this in the real world context of Covid 19, the answer is no. The consequences of a lockdown situation don't justify setting older people up to die prematurely.
OB

Shrewd Manager · Jul 24, 2020

Paidiske said:
No. Even St. James reminds us that faith ought to motivate us to take action:

"What good is it, my brothers and sisters, if you say you have faith but do not have works? Can faith save you? If a brother or sister is naked and lacks daily food, and one of you says to them, ‘Go in peace; keep warm and eat your fill’, and yet you do not supply their bodily needs, what is the good of that? So faith by itself, if it has no works, is dead."

Might well be paraphrased for our current situation:

"What good is it, my brothers and sisters, if you say you have faith but do not have works? Can faith save you? If a brother or sister is vulnerable to infection, and one of you says to them, ‘Go in peace; keep healthy and safe’, and yet you do not practice social distancing, what is the good of that? So faith by itself, if it has no works, is dead."

But if God so clothes the grass of the field, which is alive today and tomorrow is thrown into the furnace, will He not much more clothe you? You of little faith! Do not worry then, saying, 'What will we eat?' or 'What will we drink?' or 'What will we wear for clothing?' For the Gentiles eagerly seek all these things; for your heavenly Father knows that you need all these things. But seek first His kingdom and His righteousness, and all these things will be added to you. (Matt 6:30-33)

So Gad came to David and told him, and said to him, "Shall seven years of famine come to you in your land? Or will you flee three months before your foes while they pursue you? Or shall there be three days' pestilence in your land? Now consider and see what answer I shall return to Him who sent me." Then David said to Gad, "I am in great distress. Let us now fall into the hand of the LORD for His mercies are great, but do not let me fall into the hand of man." (2 Sam 24:13-14)

Shrewd Manager · Jul 24, 2020

Occams Barber said:
If we put this in the real world context of Covid 19, the answer is no. The consequences of a lockdown situation don't justify setting older people up to die prematurely.
OB

Why not quarantine those most at risk only? 'Herd immunity' plus quarantine on the edges is a viable option, surely?

Paidiske · Jul 24, 2020

Shrewd Manager said:
Why not quarantine those most at risk only? 'Herd immunity' plus quarantine on the edges is a viable option, surely?

We see how well that works with the current outbreaks in nursing homes.

As for seeking first the kingdom, I agree; but that includes concern for our fellow human beings. And the quote from Samuel might apply if we believed the current pandemic were a deliberate punishment from God, but certainly I don't see it that way.

Covid - Two Paths

Through him, in all things, more than conquerors.

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Through him, in all things, more than conquerors.

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Through him, in all things, more than conquerors.

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