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Discussion and Debate
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Coronaviris death rate update.
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<blockquote data-quote="Hans Blaster" data-source="post: 74826218" data-attributes="member: 396028"><p>There are three states for any person who has tested positive:</p><p></p><p>1. They can recover.</p><p>2. They can die.</p><p>3. They can still be sick, with their fates unknown.</p><p></p><p>So the death rate should be #2 / ( #1 + #2 ), or deaths/(recoveries + deaths).</p><p></p><p>Our event in the US is still quite young, so most of the cases are still sick, but in China where the number of new cases has been low for a while the rate would be: 3,270 / ( 81,093 + 3,270 ) = 0.043, or 4.3%.</p><p></p><p>In the US there are very few cases that have "resolved" with recoveries very small (178 at the current time) so it wouldn't be reflective of the realistic death rate to use that number. [all numbers came from the related Wikipedia articles in the last few minutes]</p><p></p><p>In computing the true death rate, identifying the number of people who were actually infected and didn't get tested will be necessary. This hasn't happened yet, but China (or S. Korea) would be the likely place to get these numbers once there is an antibody test.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Hans Blaster, post: 74826218, member: 396028"] There are three states for any person who has tested positive: 1. They can recover. 2. They can die. 3. They can still be sick, with their fates unknown. So the death rate should be #2 / ( #1 + #2 ), or deaths/(recoveries + deaths). Our event in the US is still quite young, so most of the cases are still sick, but in China where the number of new cases has been low for a while the rate would be: 3,270 / ( 81,093 + 3,270 ) = 0.043, or 4.3%. In the US there are very few cases that have "resolved" with recoveries very small (178 at the current time) so it wouldn't be reflective of the realistic death rate to use that number. [all numbers came from the related Wikipedia articles in the last few minutes] In computing the true death rate, identifying the number of people who were actually infected and didn't get tested will be necessary. This hasn't happened yet, but China (or S. Korea) would be the likely place to get these numbers once there is an antibody test. [/QUOTE]
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Coronaviris death rate update.
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