- Oct 2, 2011
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Prof Bart Ehrman said:
We cannot assign frequentist probabilities to historical events because they are not random trial experiments. However, we can formally, rigorously, and precisely assign numerical Bayesian probabilities to such events based on objectively measurable historical evidence.
Ehrman could not do it, but I can. I accomplished that with I bet that Jesus was a historical figure.What is the probability that Jesus was baptized by John the Baptist? They want me to give like … 92% probable. No, you can't. With history, you can't do that.
Right, in fact, it is called Subjective (Bayesian) Probability. Historians always avoid quantifying probabilities because they are not formally trained in Bayesian reasoning. I am, but I am not a historian. Subjective Bayesian probability is not the same as personal whimsical probability.You make it sound like you have some kind of objective, mathematical, precise thing.
We cannot assign frequentist probabilities to historical events because they are not random trial experiments. However, we can formally, rigorously, and precisely assign numerical Bayesian probabilities to such events based on objectively measurable historical evidence.
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