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Can we mathematically assign a probability to an event 2000 years ago?

tonychanyt

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Prof Bart Ehrman said:

What is the probability that Jesus was baptized by John the Baptist? They want me to give like … 92% probable. No, you can't. With history, you can't do that.
Ehrman could not do it, but I can. I accomplished that with I bet that Jesus was a historical figure.

You make it sound like you have some kind of objective, mathematical, precise thing.
Right, in fact, it is called Subjective (Bayesian) Probability. Historians always avoid quantifying probabilities because they are not formally trained in Bayesian reasoning. I am, but I am not a historian. Subjective Bayesian probability is not the same as personal whimsical probability.

We cannot assign frequentist probabilities to historical events because they are not random trial experiments. However, we can formally, rigorously, and precisely assign numerical Bayesian probabilities to such events based on objectively measurable historical evidence.
 
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