- Oct 2, 2011
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Prof Bart Ehrman said:
We cannot assign frequentist probabilities to historical events because they are not random trial experiments. However, we can formally, rigorously, and precisely assign numerical Bayesian probabilities to such events based on objectively measurable historical evidence.
Ehrman could not do it, but I can. I accomplished that with I bet that Jesus was a historical figure.
Right, in fact, it is called Subjective (Bayesian) Probability. Historians always avoid quantifying probabilities because they are not formally trained in Bayesian reasoning. I am, but I am not a historian. Subjective Bayesian probability is not the same as personal whimsical probability.
We cannot assign frequentist probabilities to historical events because they are not random trial experiments. However, we can formally, rigorously, and precisely assign numerical Bayesian probabilities to such events based on objectively measurable historical evidence.
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