Can we change our future?

[stan1980]

Say for example, I had a very complicated computer, that calculates everything that has happened and will happen from the moment of the big bang to my life and beyond to just say for arguments sake, the end of the universe.

If I look up my own life on the computer to see what will happen, and it tells me I'm going to get run over by a bus next month, is there anything I can do to avoid that happening?

I'm thinking not, but not being a philosopher I was wondering if there are any other opinions on the matter. And would a machine like this be possible in theory?

 

[WorldIsMine]

No. Quantum uncertainty and chaos theory make that computer impossible.

 

[The Nihilist]

You could just stay in bed that day.

 

[IzzyPop]

Or maybe just shoot yourself now.

 

[stan1980]

No. Quantum uncertainty and chaos theory make that computer impossible.

So you believe determinism is BS then?

I don't think chaos theory would make the computer impossible, since it isn't truly random. No idea about Quantum uncertainty though, would that affect anything past atomic level? Quantum mechanics isn't something I've ever studied.

 

[stan1980]

You could just stay in bed that day.

Or maybe just shoot yourself now.

I'm a bit confused. I'll just say my thoughts out as I go:

If a machine like this isn't possible, then that says to me determinism doesn't exist.

If a machine like this is possible, then that tells me my destiny is written UNLESS I can do as you say and just stay in bed or shoot myself avoiding being anywhere near the location I am supposedly going to get run over, meaning again determinism doesn't exist.

Thoughts philosophers?

 

[pgp_protector]

Did you remember to program into the computer that you know what the computer will report, and that you will try to change how you act according to the computer's results, and then also try to change the outcome of the computers prediction ?

If not, then the computer didn't have all the info

 

[stan1980]

Did you remember to program into the computer that you know what the computer will report, and that you will try to change how you act according to the computer's results, and then also try to change the outcome of the computers prediction ?

If not, then the computer didn't have all the info

Even if I do program that in, whatever the computer tells me is going to happen I can quite easily stay one step ahead and change my own destiny. If it tells me I'm going to get run over in London on the 31st, then I can make sure I'm far enough away to make this impossible. This makes the computer a logical impossibility (I think), which makes me now also think determinism is a logical impossibility. Correct me if I've gone wrong somewhere.

 

[The Nihilist]

I'm a bit confused. I'll just say my thoughts out as I go:

If a machine like this isn't possible, then that says to me determinism doesn't exist.

If a machine like this is possible, then that tells me my destiny is written UNLESS I can do as you say and just stay in bed or shoot myself avoiding being anywhere near the location I am supposedly going to get run over, meaning again determinism doesn't exist.

Thoughts philosophers?

Do you know the Heisenberg Principle? Basically, it means that you change the outcome by measuring the circumstances. That is, if you know what would happen tomorrow if you didn't know what would happen, you can change the outcome, and you probably will.
That being said, the machine is impossible because of chaos theory and quantum uncertainty and probably other stuff too. For example, you can't know the weather a month from now. So maybe it's raining instead of sunny, so you run back in to get your umbrella, so the bus misses you.
And while chaos theory, quantum uncertainty, etc., make it impossible to predict this kind of stuff, they are insufficient to rule out determinism and do not imply free will.

 

[stan1980]

Do you know the Heisenberg Principle? Basically, it means that you change the outcome by measuring the circumstances. That is, if you know what would happen tomorrow if you didn't know what would happen, you can change the outcome, and you probably will.

Yes, I had heard of the measurement problem, although never thought about it in any great length, but this is the first time it has actually made perfect sense.

That being said, the machine is impossible because of chaos theory and quantum uncertainty and probably other stuff too. For example, you can't know the weather a month from now. So maybe it's raining instead of sunny, so you run back in to get your umbrella, so the bus misses you.
And while chaos theory, quantum uncertainty, etc., make it impossible to predict this kind of stuff, they are insufficient to rule out determinism and do not imply free will.

Could you expand on why this stuff is insufficient to rule out determinism? I would have thought if determinism is true, it should be possible to predict anything in the future, albeit with hugely complex calculations.

 

[The Nihilist]

Could you expand on why this stuff is insufficient to rule out determinism? I would have thought if determinism is true, it should be possible to predict anything in the future, albeit with hugely complex calculations.

For the machine to work, it would have to know everything. The problem is, measuring everything can change what it's doing, and stuff can interact in ways that can't be precisely predicted. For this reason, our ability to predict the future rapidly declines the further out you try to do so.
What you would need is a way of measuring everything without interfering with it

 

[pgp_protector]

For the machine to work, it would have to know everything. The problem is, measuring everything can change what it's doing, and stuff can interact in ways that can't be precisely predicted. For this reason, our ability to predict the future rapidly declines the further out you try to do so.
What you would need is a way of measuring everything without interfering with it

Something (or someone) outside of Space / Time

 

[ArnautDaniel]

Let's just assume (for the sake of argument) that the computer could in fact make perfectly (infinitely) accurate measurements.

So chaos theory is irrelevant as that has to do with issues that amount to rounding.

Nevertheless quantum mechanics is going to render the original situation impossible.

However quantum mechanics would allow the original computer to predict all the possible things you can do in the future (together with probabilities). I suppose we could rephrase the OP as "Could I ever do anything that wasn't predicted as 'possible' by the computer?", however I imagine that just about any reasonable thing you could do would come up as "possible".

So basically, the computer can't do what you want it to do in the first place.

Of course quantum mechanics is still a purely mechanical theory, and doesn't allow for free will any more than classical mechanics does, so you could still be some kind of robot obeying the laws of nature, it is just that you are a robot that could never build such a computer.

 

[stan1980]

Okay, thanks for your responses. Lets say theoretically, I had a time machine, and I could go back to the point of the big bang, but only to observe and I wouldn't be interfering in any shape, way, or form. Does quantum uncertainty dictate that future events after the big bang will be different to the events of our current universe? If so, surely that rules out determinism, although it wouldn't prove free will.

 

[Eudaimonist]

Say for example, I had a very complicated computer, that calculates everything that has happened and will happen from the moment of the big bang to my life and beyond to just say for arguments sake, the end of the universe.

I'm not so sure that is possible in reality.

If I look up my own life on the computer to see what will happen, and it tells me I'm going to get run over by a bus next month, is there anything I can do to avoid that happening?

That depends... did the computer predict the effect of its own prediction on what you would do? Or did it predict what you would do if you didn't have its prediction?


eudaimonia,

Mark

 

[Eudaimonist]

Okay, thanks for your responses. Lets say theoretically, I had a time machine, and I could go back to the point of the big bang, but only to observe and I wouldn't be interfering in any shape, way, or form. Does quantum uncertainty dictate that future events after the big bang will be different to the events of our current universe? If so, surely that rules out determinism, although it wouldn't prove free will.

QM would state that this is impossible.

But is your question whether or not the universe would unfold differently due to inherent randomness if it were "rewound" in time? I'm not positive, but I think the answer is yes. That's assuming though that the randomness of quantum phenomena isn't actually fully determined by nonlocal influences.


eudaimonia,

Mark

 

[stan1980]

Okay, I came round to the idea of determinism until I thought through this thread, now I'm back at square one.

That depends... did the computer predict the effect of its own prediction on what you would do? Or did it predict what you would do if you didn't have its prediction?

This is the thing, even getting the computer to predict the effect of its own prediction on me, no matter what it tells me, I can stay one step ahead, and avoid whatever it is telling me my destiny is. This to me, suggests I have an element of free will, correct me if I've gone wrong somewhere.

QM would state that this is impossible.

If I could observe from outside of the universe, would it be possible? Like God if you like.

But is your question whether or not the universe would unfold differently due to inherent randomness if it were "rewound" in time? I'm not positive, but I think the answer is yes.

Yep, that is pretty much my question in a nutshell. I think yes too, although I'm no expert by any means.

 

[Eudaimonist]

This is the thing, even getting the computer to predict the effect of its own prediction on me, no matter what it tells me, I can stay one step ahead, and avoid whatever it is telling me my destiny is. This to me, suggests I have an element of free will, correct me if I've gone wrong somewhere.

While I do think that human beings have an element of freewill, I don't think your example actually shows this. The problem is that you have different information after each "step", and one should expect you to behave differently with different information if determinism is true.

If I could observe from outside of the universe, would it be possible? Like God if you like.

Okay, so we are leaving QM behind there.

Honestly, I'm not sure even QM has a definitive answer to your question. It depends on just what is the nature of quantum randomness.


eudaimonia,

Mark

 

[stan1980]

While I do think that human beings have an element of freewill, I don't think your example actually shows this. The problem is that you have different information after each "step", and one should expect you to behave differently with different information if determinism is true.

Yep, on second thoughts, I think you're right. Out of interest, can you think of any theoretical way to prove freewill?

 

[Eudaimonist]

Yep, on second thoughts, I think you're right. Out of interest, can you think of any theoretical way to prove freewill?

No, I don't know how to "prove" (or falsify) in a purely scientific way either freewill or determinism. I wish I did. I don't think that either position is actually proven or falsified. Determinism has a lot of inductive appeal due to physics, and despite the awesome weirdness of quantum phenomena. Freewill has a lot of inductive appeal due to personal experience, and despite the risks of misinterpreting subjective phenomena.

I personally find personal experience more compelling. While I value science greatly, I am nevertheless not a scientistic person, and I find that there are philosophical reasons to think that freewill is at least plausible. Here is an article that might interest you.

http://members.aol.com/REBissell/indexmm3.html


eudaimonia,

Mark