Yes, that is one possible thesis. I think it too is partially correct. However, most Pentecostal/Charismatic churches do preach holiness. They are certainly not progressive though some may err in over emphasizing material things. On the positive side though churches that demonstrate in power various gifts of the Spirit are likely to have more success. I base this off of Paul. Even tongues can be a sign for unbelievers. I Cor 14:22
1 Corinthians 2:4 (KJV)
4 And my speech and my preaching
was not with enticing words of man's wisdom, but in demonstration of the Spirit and of power:"
Acts 1:8 (KJV)
8 But ye shall receive power, after that the Holy Ghost is come upon you: and ye shall be witnesses unto me both in Jerusalem, and in all Judaea, and in Samaria, and unto the uttermost part of the earth.
Acts 2:16-17 (KJV)
16 But this is that which was spoken by the prophet Joel;
17 And it shall come to pass in the last days, saith God,
I will pour out of my Spirit upon all flesh: and your sons and your daughters shall prophesy, and your young men shall see visions, and your old men shall dream dreams:
What is interesting is that this power is not concentrating into one denomination, but rather God is using different denominations to create a Charismatic movement. This is especially true if you go outside the USA.
Brazil - About half the Catholics in Brazil are now charismatic (33 million). "While the Catholic Charismatic Renewal (CCR) is experiencing growth in Brazil, it is
Pentecostalism that is generally considered the fastest-growing Christian sect there. The CCR, while significant and attracting many Catholics, is part of a larger trend of charismatic Christianity that includes both Catholic and Protestant groups. Pentecostalism, with its emphasis on the Holy Spirit and spiritual gifts, has seen a particularly strong surge in Brazil, especially since the 1990s"
Indonesia -"The Bethel Church of Indonesia, known in Indonesian as
Gereja Bethel Indonesia (GBI), is a large Pentecostal Christian denomination in Indonesia. It's the largest
Protestant and Pentecostal denomination in the country, with over 7,000 local churches and nearly three million members. GBI is affiliated with the Church of God (
Cleveland, Tennessee).
Pentecostal ecclesiology in the new adaptation era: The case of the Bethel Church of Indonesia
Global South - "Pentecostalism is the fastest-growing
religious movement in the world;
[14][15][16][17][18] this growth is primarily due to
religious conversion to Pentecostal and Charismatic Christianity.
[19][20] ...Christianity earns about 65.1 million people due to factors such as birth rate and religious conversion while losing 27.4 million people due to factors such as death rate and religious apostasy. Most of the net growth in the numbers of Christians are in Africa, Latin America and Asia.
[22]"
Christian population growth - Wikipedia
I am sure that I could sample many other nations and come up with similar conclusions.
As to other religions that are patently false, some nations are experiencing high growth, though usually at a low base. Correlating with growth should be compared with known true Christianity. I don't believe that Pentecostals/Charismatics are typicaly a false movement, though I think a few people suggest this. Most however, do preach basic salvation and make converts.
So while growth alone does not explain veracity, growth certainly can show that God is involved in something when Jesus is preached. I would thus argue that the charismatic renewal is positive for the worldwide church. That while some pockets of out of balance teaching may exist, God is still moving with the group as a whole. If this thesis is false based on poor doctrine, what is it that makes it so false that these people are not saved?
II Timothy 4:3 addresses ear tickling. One might conclude that charismatics are such churches but I think the evidence is not there for most. Why? Ear ticklers to me would not want to spend so much time in church. Though Eastern Orthodox and Catholics have some services that can last for hours, many Pentecostal services too last quite some time especially in the global South. Additionally, I doubt ear ticklers want to go to the altar for various ministry and have leaders lay hands on them for the need that is preached that day. Though this is not universal in all Pentecostal and Charismatic churches, I would say it is common especially in the global South.
Here is an interesting take on ear tickling that I would have never thought of.
Preaching that Tickles the Ear
If we add this type of thinking the ministers that get their messages from the Holy Spirit would seem to be the least ear tickling. Those that worry about what the people think, consider their own flesh or who are incapable of hearing from God for a message on their own are the most at risk for ear tickling. I'm open to hear more about how this would play out in comparing denominations against each other.
So while no hypothesis dealing with people can be "proven" I do think that there are some tendencies that suggest God is behind the charismatic renewal. If so, will the next move will expand it even more? I would say yes, at least for the world a whole. I suppose it does not matter though the method of renewal and revival. But I think it does rest on the power of God and the prayers of those who are committed with God to the ministry of reconcilation, the fervor for the mission field and knowledge of the word. I pray that is all Christian churches.