Blackjack and Design

[FreeinChrist]

MOD HAT

Folks, this thread had quite a clean up and may get more. The rules violated include:

Flaming and Goading
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Flaming and Goading
● Please treat all members with respect and courtesy through civil dialogue.
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● NO Goading. This includes images, cartoons, or smileys clearly meant to goad.

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[Paul of Eugene OR]

Once while playing blackjack, I was dealt a pair of aces in a row. On both hands, I split the aces and was dealt a face card on each ace resulting in four blackjacks two at a time.There were multiple players at the table so calculating the odds would require a bit of time and memory. Suffice it to say, the odds of this happening are quite low. Now obviously before this, the dealer shuffled the cards and had dealt out several hands before this occurred. If we were to intricately examine the dealer shuffling and were able to count the cards as they came out we could easily see the process that led to my two lucky hands.

The above anecdote was accomplished through natural means. The dealer shuffled, cards were dealt, I got my hands.

Is there any reason to include an element of design in this scenario? In my opinion, no. It is a superfluous element since we already know or could possibly know the process of how the hands came about.

If you think that design is required in any of this, explain why.

If you don't understand blackjack, then don't even try to explain anything.

In all of our lives there will be many, many occurrences. Some of them will be more improbable than others. Some of them will be very, very improbable, on occasion. Looking back, after they have happened, we might remark on them with interest, but some such are bound to happen. In other words, paradoxically as it sounds, having improbable events occur is not improbable. What is improbable is calling them out in advance.

Consider buying a lottery ticket. Will you win? Probably not. But somebody does, finally, which is not at all improbable, since so many millions of people buy tickets. The ticket winner afterwards should not necessarily think she was selected by the lottery commission to be the winner.

 

[AV1611VET]

What is improbable is calling them out in advance.

Yup.

I made that point here, but it evidentally didn't sink in.

 

[crjmurray]

Except nothing was called out in advance. The entire design argument focuses on an outcome and claims it was too improbable to happen naturally, therefore there must be a designer. The blackjack example shows an improbable event with no design necessary to cause it.