Best Case scenario of "When this will all be over."

[ZNP]

Governor Cuomo talked about this in his daily talk. I thought it would be interesting to consider. It is very complicated so to simplify the discussion it needs to be best case scenario, and it needs to be just NYC. I see NYC as a major gateway, so I can't see how this could really all be over if it isn't over in NYC.

So let's define the terms -- Best case scenario means cheapest, soonest and safest.

When will this all be over -- means when can people return to their normal daily routine, go to work, the store, the restaurant, school, the gym, etc. For example the school I teach at has 2,000 students and 400 adults that go there each day. They come from all 5 Burroughs, Westchester, NJ, and Long Island. They use the subway and bus system extensively and a few use trains.

NYC -- take into account 3 airports, 2 of which are international, A very big bus station and a very big train station. Subways and buses. People commute in daily from Long Island, Westchester, Conn., NJ, and even Pa. It also has a port.

Also, this does not refer to the economic impact. So I realize everyone will return to a daily routine long before unemployment goes back down or the stock market goes back up.

 

[eleos1954]

Governor Cuomo talked about this in his daily talk. I thought it would be interesting to consider. It is very complicated so to simplify the discussion it needs to be best case scenario, and it needs to be just NYC. I see NYC as a major gateway, so I can't see how this could really all be over if it isn't over in NYC.

So let's define the terms -- Best case scenario means cheapest, soonest and safest.

When will this all be over -- means when can people return to their normal daily routine, go to work, the store, the restaurant, school, the gym, etc. For example the school I teach at has 2,000 students and 400 adults that go there each day. They come from all 5 Burroughs, Westchester, NJ, and Long Island. They use the subway and bus system extensively and a few use trains.

NYC -- take into account 3 airports, 2 of which are international, A very big bus station and a very big train station. Subways and buses. People commute in daily from Long Island, Westchester, Conn., NJ, and even Pa. It also has a port.

Also, this does not refer to the economic impact. So I realize everyone will return to a daily routine long before unemployment goes back down or the stock market goes back up.

I think likely ... areas with less impact will gradually loosen up the shelter at home mandates. The big metros will take significantly longer. Hard to say how this plays out.

 

[GodsGrace101]

There is no best case scenario unless a cure if found or a vaccine made.

Life will never be the same again because the virus is not going to just disappear.

 

[ZNP]

I think likely ... areas with less impact will gradually loosen up the shelter at home mandates. The big metros will take significantly longer. Hard to say how this plays out.

We know the factors in the equation. March 15th they shut down the schools. At that time and over the next week or so they enacted social distancing. We might have had 1,000 people confirmed sick at that point in NYC. That was enough to cause a huge amount of deaths and almost overwhelm the hospitals. We also know that this first was detected in a remote area of the world, Wuhan China. So with 2 international airports and a third national airport, as well as bus and trains stations, and a port, as long as the disease is anywhere in the world it will wind up back in NYC. Since the vast majority of NY uses the subway, often with 200 people packed into 1 car, standing room only, and also the buses, again often with 50-60 people on a bus that seats 40, once the disease arrives in the city it will spread rapidly. Also the most that could be immune at this point is 10% of the population and it is likely closer to 7%.

 

[Halbhh]

Governor Cuomo talked about this in his daily talk. I thought it would be interesting to consider. It is very complicated so to simplify the discussion it needs to be best case scenario, and it needs to be just NYC. I see NYC as a major gateway, so I can't see how this could really all be over if it isn't over in NYC.

So let's define the terms -- Best case scenario means cheapest, soonest and safest.

When will this all be over -- means when can people return to their normal daily routine, go to work, the store, the restaurant, school, the gym, etc. For example the school I teach at has 2,000 students and 400 adults that go there each day. They come from all 5 Burroughs, Westchester, NJ, and Long Island. They use the subway and bus system extensively and a few use trains.

NYC -- take into account 3 airports, 2 of which are international, A very big bus station and a very big train station. Subways and buses. People commute in daily from Long Island, Westchester, Conn., NJ, and even Pa. It also has a port.

Also, this does not refer to the economic impact. So I realize everyone will return to a daily routine long before unemployment goes back down or the stock market goes back up.

I think this below is the 2nd press briefing today, about this main question primarily:

 

[Halbhh]

Governor Cuomo talked about this in his daily talk. I thought it would be interesting to consider. It is very complicated so to simplify the discussion it needs to be best case scenario, and it needs to be just NYC. I see NYC as a major gateway, so I can't see how this could really all be over if it isn't over in NYC.

So let's define the terms -- Best case scenario means cheapest, soonest and safest.

When will this all be over -- means when can people return to their normal daily routine, go to work, the store, the restaurant, school, the gym, etc. For example the school I teach at has 2,000 students and 400 adults that go there each day. They come from all 5 Burroughs, Westchester, NJ, and Long Island. They use the subway and bus system extensively and a few use trains.

NYC -- take into account 3 airports, 2 of which are international, A very big bus station and a very big train station. Subways and buses. People commute in daily from Long Island, Westchester, Conn., NJ, and even Pa. It also has a port.

Also, this does not refer to the economic impact. So I realize everyone will return to a daily routine long before unemployment goes back down or the stock market goes back up.

In a way, after hundreds of articles over weeks, it's become sorta simple how best to reopen -- something very much like South Korea (or Taiwan, you name it, any successful nation) -- you test anyone likely exposed to see whether they are shedding the virus -- being infectious -- and if they are not shedding the virus then they can be cleared to work. To do this well you'd merely scale up testing into a sufficient number of quick tests (best is the quick tests where results are under 24 hours, as we already have available) which would be on the order of 5 or 10 million tests a day nationally, during a piecemeal startup process. (some types of business at a time)

 

[Sparagmos]

Governor Cuomo talked about this in his daily talk. I thought it would be interesting to consider. It is very complicated so to simplify the discussion it needs to be best case scenario, and it needs to be just NYC. I see NYC as a major gateway, so I can't see how this could really all be over if it isn't over in NYC.

So let's define the terms -- Best case scenario means cheapest, soonest and safest.

When will this all be over -- means when can people return to their normal daily routine, go to work, the store, the restaurant, school, the gym, etc. For example the school I teach at has 2,000 students and 400 adults that go there each day. They come from all 5 Burroughs, Westchester, NJ, and Long Island. They use the subway and bus system extensively and a few use trains.

NYC -- take into account 3 airports, 2 of which are international, A very big bus station and a very big train station. Subways and buses. People commute in daily from Long Island, Westchester, Conn., NJ, and even Pa. It also has a port.

Also, this does not refer to the economic impact. So I realize everyone will return to a daily routine long before unemployment goes back down or the stock market goes back up.

I think you will see gradual expansion of “essential “ businesses. Schools will stay closed at least until fall. More retail will open. Anyone who can work from home will continue to do so. Because of transportation, they’ll have to go really slow and gradual IMO. The availability of testing will be a big factor and that’s still an unknown.

 

[ZNP]

I think you will see gradual expansion of “essential “ businesses. Schools will stay closed at least until fall. More retail will open. Anyone who can work from home will continue to do so. Because of transportation, they’ll have to go really slow and gradual IMO. The availability of testing will be a big factor and that’s still an unknown.

Why do we make such a big deal about testing? Taiwan has had 6 deaths, what they did was simply use a thermometer to see if someone has a fever. If you have a fever then you can't get on the plane, the train, can't enter the restaurant, can't go to school, etc. It worked for them.

 

[Sparagmos]

Why do we make such a big deal about testing? Taiwan has had 6 deaths, what they did was simply use a thermometer to see if someone has a fever. If you have a fever then you can't get on the plane, the train, can't enter the restaurant, can't go to school, etc. It worked for them.

I’m fine with that if the experts think it’s adequate.

 

[GodsGrace101]

Why do we make such a big deal about testing? Taiwan has had 6 deaths, what they did was simply use a thermometer to see if someone has a fever. If you have a fever then you can't get on the plane, the train, can't enter the restaurant, can't go to school, etc. It worked for them.

What about asymptomatics?

 

[ZNP]

What about asymptomatics?

That would explain why 6 people died in Taiwan. It may not be 100% perfect, but it would still be good enough for us to reopen everything. Not only so but it will work on other epidemics and the flu.

 

[GodsGrace101]

That would explain why 6 people died in Taiwan. It may not be 100% perfect, but it would still be good enough for us to reopen everything. Not only so but it will work on other epidemics and the flu.

I agree that we have to get going again.
I think face masks are here to stay...until a cure or vaccine.

I hear a second round will be coming in Sept/Oct.
Italy is a little ahead of the states so I can see what's happening here.

I do agree with your post.
Nothing is perfect, but everything will help.
We can't just sit around and wait....

 

[ZNP]

I agree that we have to get going again.
I think face masks are here to stay...until a cure or vaccine.

I hear a second round will be coming in Sept/Oct.
Italy is a little ahead of the states so I can see what's happening here.

I do agree with your post.
Nothing is perfect, but everything will help.
We can't just sit around and wait....

Imagine a restaurant owner is about to go bankrupt, but if he can buy a thermometer and can use it on everyone entering the store he can open up tomorrow and avoid bankruptcy.

Imagine a school of 2,000 kids, they can't take the temperature of everyone coming in, but you can set up infrared cameras that would spot a fever allowing the people at the front door to concentrate who they use the thermometers on.

You could set up these infrared cameras at subway stations, bus stations, train stations and airports. Instead of waiting till January these things could get up and running much, much sooner.

 

[GodsGrace101]

Imagine a restaurant owner is about to go bankrupt, but if he can buy a thermometer and can use it on everyone entering the store he can open up tomorrow and avoid bankruptcy.

Imagine a school of 2,000 kids, they can't take the temperature of everyone coming in, but you can set up infrared cameras that would spot a fever allowing the people at the front door to concentrate who they use the thermometers on.

You could set up these infrared cameras at subway stations, bus stations, train stations and airports. Instead of waiting till January these things could get up and running much, much sooner.

There are some restaurants here that are able to be open because they have tables outdoors,,,spaced far apart.

It won't work for every restrnt....ditto for other businesses.

But you have some good ideas...something will be done.

 

[ZNP]

My thought is that testing for the virus is not the solution to ending the crisis because you will get different strains, and it takes significant time to create new tests, it requires labor to do the test, and it is specific to a single virus.

The same with an inoculation.

Also, you won't ever rid the entire earth of the virus, so hoping it disappears after a few weeks or months is not realistic.

But if you have a fever then you are contagious, with something. Not always true, but for simplicity, cost, time and flexibility it is the best test. You may have people without symptoms who are also contagious, so this approach is not perfect. But, we have lived for thousands of years with the risk of catching diseases. We don't need a "perfect" solution to return to a normal lifestyle again.

 

[dqhall]

There are some restaurants here that are able to be open because they have tables outdoors,,,spaced far apart.

It won't work for every restrnt....ditto for other businesses.

But you have some good ideas...something will be done.

Restaurants are allowed to do delivery or take out orders. Some are selling flour or other foods in bulk to try to get needed cash.

 

[FreeinChrist]

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