Vipertaja,
vipertaja said:
Care to cite some sources to go with that?
I don't recall seing this argument before, I'll give you that.
The observations and the idea are mine. You wanted real creationist science. You are in on it from the begining. The data on desert predators is largely anecdotal and not of the quality necessary to actually demonstrate my theory. I'm not a biologist and do not understand their standards for gathering and reporting evidence. And if I did, my "research associates" would not be willing to go to the extra effort. I am however a professional scientist and understand the issues.
We have two types of data. Interviews of people who live in the area. "Where's a good place to hunt coyotes?" "Have you seen any foxes?" That sort of thing. And animals actually seen, some of which are shot.
Sometimes we call the critters by mimicking injured prey. Only hungry animals will be interested. Sometimes we call by mimicking a social visit or a challenge. Again only interested animals will respond.
The data is good enough to call the principle of an ecological niche into question, especially as it relates to the promised optimization by evolution. And the data is good enough to allow the creation of a new hypothesis (which I've done). But this data can not properly be used to "prove" the hypothesis by the standards required by good science.
I was told that there were biologists here that could help me out in that area and would be interested in doing so.
As for the math, it requires a good command of second year calculus, matrix algebra, and statistical expectations of the sort you see in early graduate courses for technical majors (or senior level classes for math majors). If anyone is still interested, I'd be happy to discuss it at any level. (I might even be persuaded to send a copy to someone who would promise to read it.) All that plus a background in neural networks makes the problem and results trivial to explain.
If you aren't field biologist and don't have the mathematical skills, then either sit back and watch and see if something comes of this. Or dismiss me as a liar (afterall I am a Creationist and a Hunter, so its a safe assumption on your part) and just ignore me.
Ed,
Edx said:
I've explained the nature of the evidence I have. What would you like to see?
OC1,
OC1 said:
... I think [your] conclusion:
Is a bit of a stretch.
Hopefully, we will see.
Electric,
Electric Sceptic said:
All of the above is hardly surprising, and is just what evolutionary theory would predict. All you are talking about is various similar species in the same environment. Foxes, coyotes, and wolves are obviously very similar animals, and you are talking about them in very similar environments. It would be surprising if they DIDN'T evolve to the same size, given the fact that they hunt, eat, digest etc. in very similar ways. What is the best food for one is pretty much the best food for all...so they all tend to evolve to the optimal size to hunt that food. What's surprising about that?
If I didn't tell you my observations first, would you have suggested this? I think not. Large coyotes are capable of killing deer. Several years ago, a pack of city coyotes took down a horse (along Santiago Rd. at the edge of town). The areas that gray fox and small coyotes share are generally the same areas that DFG reports as having the largest deer populations.
Physics_guy,
Physics_guy said:
Really, in 20 years? What is that, about 6 six generations for these mammals? I wouldn't expect most biologists to think that it has changed that much over that time.
Also I still think you are too much discounting the energy and heat sink problems of larger size - there are no large predators in deserts for a reason.
Just wondering, but were there no bears? Thought they were plentiful in WA. Just an aside.
Traits that are within the species limits can change very fast. That's a different problem from changing genes through mutation.
The high elevations of the East Mojave National Preserve contain large amounts of water, deer, gray fox, and small coyotes. The lower elevations have little water, few deer, no fox, and large coyotes.
When I was out with the Boy Scouts at Joshua Tree NP, three weeks ago (Even lower elevation and hotter still), there were no signs of deer or fox in the area. In camp were more small birds and small rodents than we could count, but no sign of rabbits. The coyotes would have made fine trophies had I been allowed to take one home.
The hotter and dryer, the bigger the coyote. The energy and heat sink problems don't work the way you or I would have suspected. The areas with kit and small gray fox but no coyote look most like the low elevations of the preserve.
I was surprised at the lack of diversity in the rainforest also.
Tocis,
tocis said:
*nods his head in acknowledgment*
Okay, that's definitely possible, and it does have quite a degree of probability. Of course it's not what the bible says when you take it literally... but it is very possible.
The Bible gives a location for the Flood, lower Mesopotamia where the Tigris, Euphrates, and two other rivers come together. The water broke from underground as well as rain. All of the surrounding countryside even the high hills in an area flatter than Nebraska were covered. The wind blew and the ark ran aground in the foothills east of Mesopotamia, where olive trees grow. The giants mentioned in Gen. 6 were still around in Deut. 2. I didn't see them get on the ark. I have taken the Bible completely literally. Take a look at Dick Fischer's book, The Origins Solution.
Everyone who disagrees with my summary here has chosen alternate definitions of the ancient Hebrew words. The standard YEC interpretation ends up having to ignore or explain away certain verses that can't be made to match their story. So their version is not literal.
Agnostic,
AnEmpiricalAgnostic said:
Okay Mathematician, I’ll bite too. It’s been awhile since someone has brought something fresh to the table and although I’m no expert in math or desert predators I think sometimes a fresh perspective coming from a layperson asking questions can throw new light on a problem.
A few decades seems a rather small amount of time for any population to vary genetically to exploit a niche. The first problem that comes to mind is the vast number of variables that need to be tied down. For example, In the case of a small predator it’s advantage would be that it needs less food to sustain and thrive. So this would be an advantage in areas where food was scarce or hard to catch. From my observations, it seems that many similar predators will not mess with other predators unless the competition for food escalates. In this case the different predators may optimize their weight to their environment based on the available food. It could be that being smaller and more agile helps catch the small fast prey even if it’s abundant. In other cases maybe the prey is larger and slower so it will necessitate larger predators to exploit the niche. I guess the question to you before I ramble too much is for details. What is the food available to each predator? Is it small and fast? Are the predators fighting with each other all the time over the food? Is the food scarce or abundant? Is there more competition over water? All these must play a contributing factor in what is the optimal size for a predator to exploit a niche. If these predators are not in hostile competition for the prey then I think it would make sense to be the same size because it would be dictated by the niche and not the competition.
I've said nothing about the populations varying genetically. I've assumed that these changes occur completely within the genetic limits of each species. And yes the changes take just a few generations. They demonstrate an extreme amount of "pressure" from something in the environment to cause them to conform. This same pressure would also be brought to bear on any mutations (if they occurred).
I believe I answered your other concerns above.
Tom,
I hope I answered your concern.
Agnostic,
AnEmpiricalAgnostic said:
True. Now that I think about it the Kodiak Bear are a good example of this and they only had to compete with themselves.
Indeed… it’s all in the details. Thus far the convergence theory seems to be a drastic oversimplification of what is actually going on but I’ll reserve judgment for when math gives up more details. The problem is that creationists seem to latch onto these oversimplifications quite readily. I’m afraid we may be looking at he birth of a new PRATT.
Any oversimplifications here are only to help get a very complicated idea across. What's a PRATT?
Jet,
Jet Black said:
I am not too sure about that. while it might seem an obcvious solution, I can think of a few factors that I wonder whether you have taken into account. .... If one artificially introduces a large group of one type and a small group of another, does this dynamic change at all? ....
Youre precis there seems a little limited in its scope, I'm sure the actual thesis itself isn't, but I would be interested to know to what extent you have taken these additional effects into account.
I don't know much about the mating habits of foxes, I only hunt them and shoot them. I don't think any of these species specialize. They eat everything from insects to the largest thing they can take. Gray fox are only at the extreme ends of there size range, none of intermediate size exist. Same for coyotes. Your proposed experiment would be illegal for me to try but would be interesting.
My nature is to question everything and try every detail. But this is outside my training and I'm certain I've missed some issues.
If I missed anyone, I'm sorry. I hope I've conveyed the issue clearly enough.